Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior. In this paper we present a new approximating family of distributions, the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) family, and show how to optimize it in variational inference. VSMC melds variational inference (VI) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), providing practitioners with flexible, accurate, and powerful Bayesian inference. The VSMC family is a variational family that can approximate the posterior arbitrarily well, while still allowing for efficient optimization of its parameters. We demonstrate its utility on state space models, stochastic volatility models for financial data, and deep Markov models of brain neural circuits.

Learning to optimize - the idea that we can learn from data algorithms that optimize a numerical criterion - has recently been at the heart of a growing number of research efforts. One of the most challenging issues within this approach is to learn a policy that is able to optimize over classes of functions that are fairly different from the ones that it was trained on. We propose a novel way of framing learning to optimize as a problem of learning a good navigation policy on a partially observable loss surface. To this end, we develop Rover Descent, a solution that allows us to learn a fairly broad optimization policy from training on a small set of prototypical two-dimensional surfaces that encompasses the classically hard cases such as valleys, plateaus, cliffs and saddles and by using strictly zero-order information. We show that, without having access to gradient or curvature information, we achieve state-of-the-art convergence speed on optimization problems not presented at training time such as the Rosenbrock function and other hard cases in two dimensions. We extend our framework to optimize over high dimensional landscapes, while still handling only two-dimensional local landscape information and show good preliminary results.

The paper describes a new algorithm to generate minimal, stable, and symbolic corrections to an input that will cause a neural network with ReLU neurons to change its output. We argue that such a correction is a useful way to provide feedback to a user when the neural network produces an output that is different from a desired output. Our algorithm generates such a correction by solving a series of linear constraint satisfaction problems. The technique is evaluated on a neural network that has been trained to predict whether an applicant will pay a mortgage.

Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.

We study approximations of the partition function of dense graphical models. Partition functions of graphical models play a fundamental role is statistical physics, in statistics and in machine learning. Two of the main methods for approximating the partition function are Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Variational Methods. An impressive body of work in mathematics, physics and theoretical computer science provides conditions under which Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods converge in polynomial time. These methods often lead to polynomial time approximation algorithms for the partition function in cases where the underlying model exhibits correlation decay. There are very few theoretical guarantees for the performance of variational methods. One exception is recent results by Risteski (2016) who considered dense graphical models and showed that using variational methods, it is possible to find an $O(\epsilon n)$ additive approximation to the log partition function in time $n^{O(1/\epsilon^2)}$ even in a regime where correlation decay does not hold. We show that under essentially the same conditions, an $O(\epsilon n)$ additive approximation of the log partition function can be found in constant time, independent of $n$. In particular, our results cover dense Ising and Potts models as well as dense graphical models with $k$-wise interaction. They also apply for low threshold rank models.

Stein's method for measuring convergence to a continuous target distribution relies on an operator characterizing the target and Stein factor bounds on the solutions of an associated differential equation. While such operators and bounds are readily available for a diversity of univariate targets, few multivariate targets have been analyzed. We introduce a new class of characterizing operators based on Ito diffusions and develop explicit multivariate Stein factor bounds for any target with a fast-coupling Ito diffusion. As example applications, we develop computable and convergence-determining diffusion Stein discrepancies for log-concave, heavy-tailed, and multimodal targets and use these quality measures to select the hyperparameters of biased Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, compare random and deterministic quadrature rules, and quantify bias-variance tradeoffs in approximate MCMC. Our results establish a near-linear relationship between diffusion Stein discrepancies and Wasserstein distances, improving upon past work even for strongly log-concave targets. The exposed relationship between Stein factors and Markov process coupling may be of independent interest.

Bayesian graphical models have been shown to be a powerful tool for discovering uncertainty and causal structure from real-world data in many application fields. Current inference methods primarily follow different kinds of trade-offs between computational complexity and predictive accuracy. At one end of the spectrum, variational inference approaches perform well in computational efficiency, while at the other end, Gibbs sampling approaches are known to be relatively accurate for prediction in practice. In this paper, we extend an existing Gibbs sampling method, and propose a new deterministic Heron inference (Heron) for a family of Bayesian graphical models. In addition to the support for nontrivial distributability, one more benefit of Heron is that it is able to not only allow us to easily assess the convergence status but also largely improve the running efficiency. We evaluate Heron against the standard collapsed Gibbs sampler and state-of-the-art state augmentation method in inference for well-known graphical models. Experimental results using publicly available real-life data have demonstrated that Heron significantly outperforms the baseline methods for inferring Bayesian graphical models.

We present a unified framework to analyze the global convergence of Langevin dynamics based algorithms for nonconvex finite-sum optimization with $n$ component functions. At the core of our analysis is a direct analysis of the ergodicity of the numerical approximations to Langevin dynamics, which leads to faster convergence rates. Specifically, we show that gradient Langevin dynamics (GLD) and stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) converge to the almost minimizer within $\tilde O\big(nd/(\lambda\epsilon) \big)$ and $\tilde O\big(d^7/(\lambda^5\epsilon^5) \big)$ stochastic gradient evaluations respectively, where $d$ is the problem dimension, and $\lambda$ is the spectral gap of the Markov chain generated by GLD. Both of the results improve upon the best known gradient complexity results. Furthermore, for the first time we prove the global convergence guarantee for variance reduced stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (VR-SGLD) to the almost minimizer after $\tilde O\big(\sqrt{n}d^5/(\lambda^4\epsilon^{5/2})\big)$ stochastic gradient evaluations, which outperforms the gradient complexities of GLD and SGLD in a wide regime. Our theoretical analyses shed some light on using Langevin dynamics based algorithms for nonconvex optimization with provable guarantees.

We present a new algorithm for identifying the transition and emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model (HMM) from the emitted data. Expectation-maximization becomes computationally prohibitive for long observation records, which are often required for identification. The new algorithm is particularly suitable for cases where the available sample size is large enough to accurately estimate second-order output probabilities, but not higher-order ones. We show that if one is only able to obtain a reliable estimate of the pairwise co-occurrence probabilities of the emissions, it is still possible to uniquely identify the HMM if the emission probability is \emph{sufficiently scattered}. We apply our method to hidden topic Markov modeling, and demonstrate that we can learn topics with higher quality if documents are modeled as observations of HMMs sharing the same emission (topic) probability, compared to the simple but widely used bag-of-words model.

Learning to recognize touch gestures: recurrent vs. convolutional features and dynamic sampling Abstract-- We propose a fully automatic method for learning gestures on big touch devices in a potentially multi-user context. The goal is to learn general models capable of adapting to different gestures, user styles and hardware variations (e.g. Based on deep neural networks, our method features a novel dynamic sampling and temporal normalization component, transforming variable length gestures into fixed length representations while preserving finger/surface contact transitions, that is, the topology of the signal. This sequential representation is then processed with a convolutional model capable, unlike recurrent networks, of learning hierarchical representations with different levels of abstraction. To demonstrate the interest of the proposed method, we introduce a new touch gestures dataset with 6591 gestures performed by 27 people, which is, up to our knowledge, the first of its kind: a publicly available multi-touch gesture dataset for interaction. We also tested our method on a standard dataset of symbolic touch gesture recognition, the MMG dataset, outperforming the state of the art and reporting close to perfect performance. I. INTRODUCTION Touch screen technology has been widely integrated into many different devices for about a decade, becoming a major interface with different use cases ranging from smartphones to big touch tables. Starting with simple interactions, such as taps or single touch gestures, we are now using these interfaces to perform more and more complex actions, involving multiple touches and/or multiple users. If simple interactions do not require complicated engineering to perform well, advanced manipulations such as navigating through a 3D modelisation or designing a document in parallel with different users still craves for easier and better interactions. As of today, different methods and frameworks for touch gesture recognition were developed (see for instance [15], [28] and [7] for reviews). These methods define a specific model for the class, and it is up to the user to execute the correct protocol.