Eye Movement analysis with Hidden Markov Models (EMHMM) is a method for modeling eye fixation sequences using hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this report, we run a simulation study to investigate the estimation error for learning HMMs with variational Bayesian inference, with respect to the number of sequences and the sequence lengths. We also relate the estimation error measured by KL divergence and L1-norm to a corresponding distortion in the ground-truth HMM parameters.

There are two variants of the classical multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem that have received considerable attention from machine learning researchers in recent years: contextual bandits and simple regret minimization. Contextual bandits are a sub-class of MABs where, at every time step, the learner has access to side information that is predictive of the best arm. Simple regret minimization assumes that the learner only incurs regret after a pure exploration phase. In this work, we study simple regret minimization for contextual bandits. Motivated by applications where the learner has separate training and autonomous modes, we assume that, the learner experiences a pure exploration phase, where feedback is received after every action but no regret is incurred, followed by a pure exploitation phase in which regret is incurred but there is no feedback. We present the Contextual-Gap algorithm and establish performance guarantees on the simple regret, i.e., the regret during the pure exploitation phase. Our experiments examine a novel application to adaptive sensor selection for magnetic field estimation in interplanetary spacecraft, and demonstrate considerable improvement over algorithms designed to minimize the cumulative regret.

We resolve the fundamental problem of online decoding with ergodic Markov models. Specifically, we provide deterministic and randomized algorithms that are provably near-optimal under latency constraints with respect to the unconstrained offline optimal algorithm. Our algorithms admit efficient implementation via dynamic programs, and extend to (possibly adversarial) non-stationary or time-varying Markov settings as well. Moreover, we establish lower bounds in both deterministic and randomized settings subject to latency requirements, and prove that no online algorithm can perform significantly better than our algorithms.

Network representation learning (NRL) methods aim to map each vertex into a low dimensional space by preserving the local and global structure of a given network, and in recent years they have received a significant attention thanks to their success in several challenging problems. Although various approaches have been proposed to compute node embeddings, many successful methods benefit from random walks in order to transform a given network into a collection of sequences of nodes and then they target to learn the representation of nodes by predicting the context of each vertex within the sequence. In this paper, we introduce a general framework to enhance the embeddings of nodes acquired by means of the random walk-based approaches. Similar to the notion of topical word embeddings in NLP, the proposed method assigns each vertex to a topic with the favor of various statistical models and community detection methods, and then generates the enhanced community representations. We evaluate our method on two downstream tasks: node classification and link prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that the incorporation of vertex and topic embeddings outperform widely-known baseline NRL methods.

While adding temporally abstract actions, or options, to an agent's action repertoire can often accelerate learning and planning, existing approaches for determining which specific options to add are largely heuristic. We aim to formalize the problem of selecting the optimal set of options for planning, in two contexts: 1) finding the set of $k$ options that minimize the number of value-iteration passes until convergence, and 2) computing the smallest set of options so that planning converges in less than a given maximum of $\ell$ value-iteration passes. We first show that both problems are NP-hard. We then provide a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for computing the optimal options for tasks with bounded return and goal states. We prove that the algorithm has bounded suboptimality for deterministic tasks. Finally, we empirically evaluate its performance against both the optimal options and a representative collection of heuristic approaches in simple grid-based domains including the classic four rooms problem.

We discuss deep reinforcement learning in an overview style. We draw a big picture, filled with details. We discuss six core elements, six important mechanisms, and twelve applications, focusing on contemporary work, and in historical contexts. We start with background of artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, and reinforcement learning (RL), with resources. Next we discuss RL core elements, including value function, policy, reward, model, exploration vs. exploitation, and representation. Then we discuss important mechanisms for RL, including attention and memory, unsupervised learning, hierarchical RL, multi-agent RL, relational RL, and learning to learn. After that, we discuss RL applications, including games, robotics, natural language processing (NLP), computer vision, finance, business management, healthcare, education, energy, transportation, computer systems, and, science, engineering, and art. Finally we summarize briefly, discuss challenges and opportunities, and close with an epilogue.

Deep reinforcement learning enables algorithms to learn complex behavior, deal with continuous action spaces and find good strategies in environments with high dimensional state spaces. With deep reinforcement learning being an active area of research and many concurrent inventions, we decided to focus on a relatively simple robotic task to evaluate a set of ideas that might help to solve recent reinforcement learning problems. We test a newly created combination of two commonly used reinforcement learning methods, whether it is able to learn more effectively than a baseline. We also compare different ideas to preprocess information before it is fed to the reinforcement learning algorithm. The goal of this strategy is to reduce training time and eventually help the algorithm to converge. The concluding evaluation proves the general applicability of the described concepts by testing them using a simulated environment. These concepts might be reused for future experiments.

Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to creating an algorithmic assurance. The idea of `machine self-confidence' is introduced for autonomous systems. Using a factorization based framework for self-confidence assessment, one component of self-confidence, called `solver-quality', is discussed in the context of Markov decision processes for autonomous systems. Markov decision processes underlie much of the theory of reinforcement learning, and are commonly used for planning and decision making under uncertainty in robotics and autonomous systems. A `solver quality' metric is formally defined in the context of decision making algorithms based on Markov decision processes. A method for assessing solver quality is then derived, drawing inspiration from empirical hardness models. Finally, numerical experiments for an unmanned autonomous vehicle navigation problem under different solver, parameter, and environment conditions indicate that the self-confidence metric exhibits the desired properties. Discussion of results, and avenues for future investigation are included.

This paper develops a low-nonnegative-rank approximation method to identify the state aggregation structure of a finite-state Markov chain under an assumption that the state space can be mapped into a handful of meta-states. The number of meta-states is characterized by the nonnegative rank of the Markov transition matrix. Motivated by the success of the nuclear norm relaxation in low rank minimization problems, we propose an atomic regularizer as a convex surrogate for the nonnegative rank and formulate a convex optimization problem. Because the atomic regularizer itself is not computationally tractable, we instead solve a sequence of problems involving a nonnegative factorization of the Markov transition matrices by using the proximal alternating linearized minimization method. Two methods for adjusting the rank of factorization are developed so that local minima are escaped. One is to append an additional column to the factorized matrices, which can be interpreted as an approximation of a negative subgradient step. The other is to reduce redundant dimensions by means of linear combinations. Overall, the proposed algorithm very likely converges to the global solution. The efficiency and statistical properties of our approach are illustrated on synthetic data. We also apply our state aggregation algorithm on a Manhattan transportation data set and make extensive comparisons with an existing method.

In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5% and 69.4% on the OTB-2013 and OTB-2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8% on the VOT-2017 benchmark.