The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.

Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks is essential for designing reliable and robust AI systems. Applications such as video surveillance for identifying suspicious activities are designed with deep neural networks (DNNs), but DNNs do not provide uncertainty estimates. Capturing reliable uncertainty estimates in safety and security critical applications will help to establish trust in the AI system. Our contribution is to apply Bayesian deep learning framework to visual activity recognition application and quantify model uncertainty along with principled confidence. We utilize the variational inference technique while training the Bayesian DNNs to infer the approximate posterior distribution around model parameters and perform Monte Carlo sampling on the posterior of model parameters to obtain the predictive distribution. We show that the Bayesian inference applied to DNNs provides reliable confidence measures for visual activity recognition task as compared to the conventional DNNs. We also show that our method improves the visual activity recognition precision-recall score by 6% compared to non-Bayesian baseline. We evaluate our models on Moments-In-Time (MiT) activity recognition dataset by selecting a subset of in- and out-of-distribution video samples.

As one of Bayesian analysis tools, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used to in extensive applications. Most HMMs are solved by Baum-Welch algorithm (BWHMM) to predict the model parameters, which is difficult to find global optimal solutions. This paper proposes an optimized Hidden Markov Model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and so is called PSOHMM. In order to overcome the statistical constraints in HMM, the paper develops re-normalization and re-mapping mechanisms to ensure the constraints in HMM. The experiments have shown that PSOHMM can search better solution than BWHMM, and has faster convergence speed.

An intelligent agent performs actions in order to achieve its goals. Such actions can either be externally directed, such as opening a door, or internally directed, such as writing data to a memory location or strengthening a synaptic connection. Some internal actions, to which we refer as computations, potentially help the agent choose better actions. Considering that (external) actions and computations might draw upon the same resources, such as time and energy, deciding when to act or compute, as well as what to compute, are detrimental to the performance of an agent. In an environment that provides rewards depending on an agent's behavior, an action's value is typically defined as the sum of expected long-term rewards succeeding the action (itself a complex quantity that depends on what the agent goes on to do after the action in question). However, defining the value of a computation is not as straightforward, as computations are only valuable in a higher order way, through the alteration of actions. This thesis offers a principled way of computing the value of a computation in a planning setting formalized as a Markov decision process. We present two different definitions of computation values: static and dynamic. They address two extreme cases of the computation budget: affording calculation of zero or infinitely many steps in the future. We show that these values have desirable properties, such as temporal consistency and asymptotic convergence. Furthermore, we propose methods for efficiently computing and approximating the static and dynamic computation values. We describe a sense in which the policies that greedily maximize these values can be optimal. We utilize these principles to construct Monte Carlo tree search algorithms that outperform most of the state-of-the-art in terms of finding higher quality actions given the same simulation resources.

State aggregation is a model reduction method rooted in control theory and reinforcement learning. It reduces the complexity of engineering systems by mapping the system's states into a small number of meta-states. In this paper, we study the unsupervised estimation of unknown state aggregation structures based on Markov trajectories. We formulate the state aggregation of Markov processes into a nonnegative factorization model, where left and right factor matrices correspond to aggregation and disaggregation distributions respectively. By leveraging techniques developed in the context of topic modeling, we propose an efficient polynomial-time algorithm for computing the estimated state aggregation model. Under some "anchor state" assumption, we show that one can reliably recover the state aggregation structure from sample transitions with high probability. Sharp divergence error bounds are proved for the estimated aggregation and disaggregation distributions, and experiments with Manhattan traffic data are provided.

Latent variable models have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large datasets. In the case of sequential data, closed-form inference is possible when the transition and observation functions are linear. However, approximate inference techniques are usually necessary when dealing with nonlinear dynamics and observation functions. Here, we propose a novel variational inference framework for the explicit modeling of time series, Variational Inference for Nonlinear Dynamics (VIND), that is able to uncover nonlinear observation and transition functions from sequential data. The framework includes a structured approximate posterior, and an algorithm that relies on the fixed-point iteration method to find the best estimate for latent trajectories. We apply the method to several datasets and show that it is able to accurately infer the underlying dynamics of these systems, in some cases substantially outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical dynamic systems. While efficient solutions exist for certain classes of systems, a scalable general solution for stochastic, partially-observable, and continuous-valued systems remains challenging. Existing approaches in formal and simulation-based methods either cannot scale to large systems or are computationally inefficient. This paper presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for searching a simulator for the most likely path to a failure event. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system. As a result, the approach is very suitable for black box testing of large systems. We present formulations for both systems where the state is fully-observable and partially-observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can be used to find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where one is concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where we stress test a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system to find high-probability scenarios of near mid-air collisions.

Transfer learning for deep neural networks is the process of first training a base network on a source dataset, and then transferring the learned features (the network's weights) to a second network to be trained on a target dataset. This idea has been shown to improve deep neural network's generalization capabilities in many computer vision tasks such as image recognition and object localization. Apart from these applications, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have also recently gained popularity in the Time Series Classification (TSC) community. However, unlike for image recognition problems, transfer learning techniques have not yet been investigated thoroughly for the TSC task. This is surprising as the accuracy of deep learning models for TSC could potentially be improved if the model is fine-tuned from a pre-trained neural network instead of training it from scratch. In this paper, we fill this gap by investigating how to transfer deep CNNs for the TSC task. To evaluate the potential of transfer learning, we performed extensive experiments using the UCR archive which is the largest publicly available TSC benchmark containing 85 datasets. For each dataset in the archive, we pre-trained a model and then fine-tuned it on the other datasets resulting in 7140 different deep neural networks. These experiments revealed that transfer learning can improve or degrade the model's predictions depending on the dataset used for transfer. Therefore, in an effort to predict the best source dataset for a given target dataset, we propose a new method relying on Dynamic Time Warping to measure inter-datasets similarities. We describe how our method can guide the transfer to choose the best source dataset leading to an improvement in accuracy on 71 out of 85 datasets.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning, centralised policies can only be executed if agents have access to either the global state or an instantaneous communication channel. An alternative approach that circumvents this limitation is to use centralised training of a set of decentralised policies. However, such policies severely limit the agents' ability to coordinate. We propose multi-agent common knowledge reinforcement learning (MACKRL), which strikes a middle ground between these two extremes. Our approach is based on the insight that, even in partially observable settings, subsets of agents often have some common knowledge that they can exploit to coordinate their behaviour. Common knowledge can arise, e.g., if all agents can reliably observe things in their own field of view and know the field of view of other agents. Using this additional information, it is possible to find a centralised policy that conditions only on agents' common knowledge and that can be executed in a decentralised fashion. A resulting challenge is then to determine at what level agents should coordinate. While the common knowledge shared among all agents may not contain much valuable information, there may be subgroups of agents that share common knowledge useful for coordination. MACKRL addresses this challenge using a hierarchical approach: at each level, a controller can either select a joint action for the agents in a given subgroup, or propose a partition of the agents into smaller subgroups whose actions are then selected by controllers at the next level. While action selection involves sampling hierarchically, learning updates are based on the probability of the joint action, calculated by marginalising across the possible decisions of the hierarchy. We show promising results on both a proof-of-concept matrix game and a multi-agent version of StarCraft II Micromanagement.

The digital telecommunications receiver is an important context for inference methodology, the key objective being to minimize the expected loss function in recovering the transmitted information. For that criterion, the optimal decision is the Bayesian minimum-risk estimator. However, the computational load of the Bayesian estimator is often prohibitive and, hence, efficient computational schemes are required. The design of novel schemes, striking new balances between accuracy and computational load, is the primary concern of this thesis. Two popular techniques, one exact and one approximate, will be studied. The exact scheme is a recursive one, namely the generalized distributive law (GDL), whose purpose is to distribute all operators across the conditionally independent (CI) factors of the joint model, so as to reduce the total number of operators required. In a novel theorem derived in this thesis, GDL, if applicable, will be shown to guarantee such a reduction in all cases. An associated lemma also quantifies this reduction. For practical use, two novel algorithms, namely the no-longer-needed (NLN) algorithm and the generalized form of the Markovian Forward-Backward (FB) algorithm, recursively factorizes and computes the CI factors of an arbitrary model, respectively. The approximate scheme is an iterative one, namely the Variational Bayes (VB) approximation, whose purpose is to find the independent (i.e. zero-order Markov) model closest to the true joint model in the minimum Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) sense. Despite being computationally efficient, this naive mean field approximation confers only modest performance for highly correlated models. A novel approximation, namely Transformed Variational Bayes (TVB), will be designed in the thesis in order to relax the zero-order constraint in the VB approximation, further reducing the KLD of the optimal approximation.