An agent with an inaccurate model of its environment faces a difficult choice: it can ignore the errors in its model and act in the real world in whatever way it determines is optimal with respect to its model. Alternatively, it can take a more conservative stance and eschew its model in favor of optimizing its behavior solely via real-world interaction. This latter approach can be exceedingly slow to learn from experience, while the former can lead to "planner overfitting" - aspects of the agent's behavior are optimized to exploit errors in its model. This paper explores an intermediate position in which the planner seeks to avoid overfitting through a kind of regularization of the plans it considers. We present three different approaches that demonstrably mitigate planner overfitting in reinforcement-learning environments.

Modeling disease progression in healthcare administrative databases is complicated by the fact that patients are observed only at irregular intervals when they seek healthcare services. In a longitudinal cohort of 76,888 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we used a continuous-time hidden Markov model with a generalized linear model to model healthcare utilization events. We found that the fitted model provides interpretable results suitable for summarization and hypothesis generation.

StarCraft (SC) is one of the most popular and successful Real Time Strategy (RTS) games. In recent years, SC is also considered as a testbed for AI research, due to its enormous state space, hidden information, multi-agent collaboration and so on. Thanks to the annual AIIDE and CIG competitions, a growing number of bots are proposed and being continuously improved. However, a big gap still remains between the top bot and the professional human players. One vital reason is that current bots mainly rely on predefined rules to perform macro actions. These rules are not scalable and efficient enough to cope with the large but partially observed macro state space in SC. In this paper, we propose a DRL based framework to do macro action selection. Our framework combines the reinforcement learning approach Ape-X DQN with Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to improve the macro action selection in bot. We evaluate our bot, named as LastOrder, on the AIIDE 2017 StarCraft AI competition bots set. Our bot achieves overall 83% win-rate, outperforming 26 bots in total 28 entrants.

The explosive growth in fake news and its erosion to democracy, justice, and public trust has increased the demand for fake news analysis, detection and intervention. This survey comprehensively and systematically reviews fake news research. The survey identifies and specifies fundamental theories across various disciplines, e.g., psychology and social science, to facilitate and enhance the interdisciplinary research of fake news. Current fake news research is reviewed, summarized and evaluated. These studies focus on fake news from four perspective: (1) the false knowledge it carries, (2) its writing style, (3) its propagation patterns, and (4) the credibility of its creators and spreaders. We characterize each perspective with various analyzable and utilizable information provided by news and its spreaders, various strategies and frameworks that are adaptable, and techniques that are applicable. By reviewing the characteristics of fake news and open issues in fake news studies, we highlight some potential research tasks at the end of this survey.

Human visual recognition of activities or external agents involves an interplay between high-level plan recognition and low-level perception. Given that, a natural question to ask is: can low-level perception be improved by high-level plan recognition? We formulate the problem of leveraging recognized plans to generate better top-down attention maps \cite{gazzaniga2009,baluch2011} to improve the perception performance. We call these top-down attention maps specifically as plan-recognition-driven attention maps. To address this problem, we introduce the Pixel Dynamics Network. Pixel Dynamics Network serves as an observation model, which predicts next states of object points at each pixel location given observation of pixels and pixel-level action feature. This is like internally learning a pixel-level dynamics model. Pixel Dynamics Network is a kind of Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet), with specially-designed architecture. Therefore, Pixel Dynamics Network could take the advantage of parallel computation of ConvNets, while learning the pixel-level dynamics model. We further prove the equivalence between Pixel Dynamics Network as an observation model, and the belief update in partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. We evaluate our Pixel Dynamics Network in event recognition tasks. We build an event recognition system, ER-PRN, which takes Pixel Dynamics Network as a subroutine, to recognize events based on observations augmented by plan-recognition-driven attention.

Curriculum learning in reinforcement learning is a training methodology that seeks to speed up learning of a difficult target task, by first training on a series of simpler tasks and transferring the knowledge acquired to the target task. Automatically choosing a sequence of such tasks (i.e. a curriculum) is an open problem that has been the subject of much recent work in this area. In this paper, we build upon a recent method for curriculum design, which formulates the curriculum sequencing problem as a Markov Decision Process. We extend this model to handle multiple transfer learning algorithms, and show for the first time that a curriculum policy over this MDP can be learned from experience. We explore various representations that make this possible, and evaluate our approach by learning curriculum policies for multiple agents in two different domains. The results show that our method produces curricula that can train agents to perform on a target task as fast or faster than existing methods.

Learning options that allow agents to exhibit temporally higher order behavior has proven to be useful in increasing exploration, reducing sample complexity and for various transfer scenarios. Deep Discovery of Options (DDO) is a generative algorithm that learns a hierarchical policy along with options directly from expert trajectories. We perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of options inferred from DDO in different domains. To this end, we suggest different value metrics like option termination condition, hinge value function error and KL-Divergence based distance metric to compare different methods. Analyzing the termination condition of the options and number of time steps the options were run revealed that the options were terminating prematurely. We suggest modifications which can be incorporated easily and alleviates the problem of shorter options and a collapse of options to the same mode.

Abstraction of Markov Decision Processes is a useful tool for solving complex problems, as it can ignore unimportant aspects of an environment, simplifying the process of learning an optimal policy. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for finding abstract MDPs in environments with continuous state spaces. It is based on MDP homomorphisms, a structure-preserving mapping between MDPs. We demonstrate our algorithm's ability to learns abstractions from collected experience and show how to reuse the abstractions to guide exploration in new tasks the agent encounters. Our novel task transfer method beats a baseline based on a deep Q-network.

Goal-oriented dialogue systems typically rely on components specifically developed for a single task or domain. This limits such systems in two different ways: If there is an update in the task domain, the dialogue system usually needs to be updated or completely re-trained. It is also harder to extend such dialogue systems to different and multiple domains. The dialogue state tracker in conventional dialogue systems is one such component - it is usually designed to fit a well-defined application domain. For example, it is common for a state variable to be a categorical distribution over a manually-predefined set of entities (Henderson et al., 2013), resulting in an inflexible and hard-to-extend dialogue system. In this paper, we propose a new approach for dialogue state tracking that can generalize well over multiple domains without incorporating any domain-specific knowledge. Under this framework, discrete dialogue state variables are learned independently and the information of a predefined set of possible values for dialogue state variables is not required. Furthermore, it enables adding arbitrary dialogue context as features and allows for multiple values to be associated with a single state variable. These characteristics make it much easier to expand the dialogue state space. We evaluate our framework using the widely used dialogue state tracking challenge data set (DSTC2) and show that our framework yields competitive results with other state-of-the-art results despite incorporating little domain knowledge. We also show that this framework can benefit from widely available external resources such as pre-trained word embeddings.

A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions, such as latent-variable generative models. However sampling (even very approximately) can be #P-hard. Classical results going back to Bakry and \'Emery (1985) on sampling focus on log-concave distributions, and show a natural Markov chain called Langevin diffusion mixes in polynomial time. However, all log-concave distributions are uni-modal, while in practice it is very common for the distribution of interest to have multiple modes. In this case, Langevin diffusion suffers from torpid mixing. We address this problem by combining Langevin diffusion with simulated tempering. The result is a Markov chain that mixes more rapidly by transitioning between different temperatures of the distribution. We analyze this Markov chain for a mixture of (strongly) log-concave distributions of the same shape. In particular, our technique applies to the canonical multi-modal distribution: a mixture of gaussians (of equal variance). Our algorithm efficiently samples from these distributions given only access to the gradient of the log-pdf. For the analysis, we introduce novel techniques for proving spectral gaps based on decomposing the action of the generator of the diffusion. Previous approaches rely on decomposing the state space as a partition of sets, while our approach can be thought of as decomposing the stationary measure as a mixture of distributions (a "soft partition"). Additional materials for the paper can be found at http://tiny.cc/glr17. The proof and results have been improved and generalized from the precursor at www.arxiv.org/abs/1710.02736.