Markov Models
Modeling and Optimization of Human-machine Interaction Processes via the Maximum Entropy Principle
Zheng, Jiaxiao, de Veciana, Gustavo
We propose a data-driven framework to enable the modeling and optimization of human-machine interaction processes, e.g., systems aimed at assisting humans in decision-making or learning, work-load allocation, and interactive advertising. This is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, humans' behavior is hard to model or infer, as it may reflect biases, long term memory, and sensitivity to sequencing, i.e., transience and exponential complexity in the length of the interaction. Second, due to the interactive nature of such processes, the machine policy used to engage with a human may bias possible data-driven inferences. Finally, in choosing machine policies that optimize interaction rewards, one must, on the one hand, avoid being overly sensitive to error/variability in the estimated human model, and on the other, being overly deterministic/predictable which may result in poor human 'engagement' in the interaction. To meet these challenges, we propose a robust approach, based on the maximum entropy principle, which iteratively estimates human behavior and optimizes the machine policy--Alternating Entropy-Reward Ascent (AREA) algorithm. We characterize AREA, in terms of its space and time complexity and convergence. We also provide an initial validation based on synthetic data generated by an established noisy nonlinear model for human decision-making.
Active and Passive Portfolio Management with Latent Factors
Al-Aradi, Ali, Jaimungal, Sebastian
We address a portfolio selection problem that combines active (outperformance) and passive (tracking) objectives using techniques from convex analysis. We assume a general semimartingale market model where the assets' growth rate processes are driven by a latent factor. Using techniques from convex analysis we obtain a closed-form solution for the optimal portfolio and provide a theorem establishing its uniqueness. The motivation for incorporating latent factors is to achieve improved growth rate estimation, an otherwise notoriously difficult task. To this end, we focus on a model where growth rates are driven by an unobservable Markov chain. The solution in this case requires a filtering step to obtain posterior probabilities for the state of the Markov chain from asset price information, which are subsequently used to find the optimal allocation. We show the optimal strategy is the posterior average of the optimal strategies the investor would have held in each state assuming the Markov chain remains in that state. Finally, we implement a number of historical backtests to demonstrate the performance of the optimal portfolio.
A Review of Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Building Energy Management
Mason, Karl, Grijalva, Santiago
The area of building energy management has received a significant amount of interest in recent years. This area is concerned with combining advancements in sensor technologies, communications and advanced control algorithms to optimize energy utilization. Reinforcement learning is one of the most prominent machine learning algorithms used for control problems and has had many successful applications in the area of building energy management. This research gives a comprehensive review of the literature relating to the application of reinforcement learning to developing autonomous building energy management systems. The main direction for future research and challenges in reinforcement learning are also outlined.
Successive Over Relaxation Q-Learning
Kamanchi, Chandramouli, Diddigi, Raghuram Bharadwaj, Bhatnagar, Shalabh
In a discounted reward Markov Decision Process (MDP) the objective is to find the optimal value function, i.e., the value function corresponding to an optimal policy. This problem reduces to solving a functional equation known as the Bellman equation and a fixed point iteration scheme known as the value iteration is utilized to obtain the solution. In [1], a successive over-relaxation based value iteration scheme is proposed to speed up the computation of the optimal value function. They propose a modified Bellman equation and prove faster convergence to the optimal value function. However, in many practical applications, the model information is not known and we resort to Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms to obtain optimal policy and value function. One such popular algorithm is Q-Learning. In this paper, we propose Successive Over Relaxation (SOR) Q-Learning. We first derive a fixed point iteration for optimal Q-values based on [1] and utilize stochastic approximation to derive a learning algorithm to compute the optimal value function and an optimal policy. We then prove the convergence of the SOR Q-Learning to optimal Q-values. Finally, through numerical experiments, we show that SOR Q-Learning is faster compared to the standard Q-Learning algorithm.
Contextual Markov Decision Processes using Generalized Linear Models
We consider the recently proposed reinforcement learning (RL) framework of Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDP), where the agent has a sequence of episodic interactions with tabular environments chosen from a possibly infinite set. The parameters of these environments depend on a context vector that is available to the agent at the start of each episode. In this paper, we propose a no-regret online RL algorithm in the setting where the MDP parameters are obtained from the context using generalized linear models (GLMs). The proposed algorithm \texttt{GL-ORL} relies on efficient online updates and is also memory efficient. Our analysis of the algorithm gives new results in the logit link case and improves previous bounds in the linear case. Our algorithm uses efficient Online Newton Step updates to build confidence sets. Moreover, for any strongly convex link function, we also show a generic conversion from any online no-regret algorithm to confidence sets.
Incremental Learning of Discrete Planning Domains from Continuous Perceptions
Serafini, Luciano, Traverso, Paolo
We propose a framework for learning discrete deterministic planning domains. In this framework, an agent learns the domain by observing the action effects through continuous features that describe the state of the environment after the execution of each action. Besides, the agent learns its perception function, i.e., a probabilistic mapping between state variables and sensor data represented as a vector of continuous random variables called perception variables. We define an algorithm that updates the planning domain and the perception function by (i) introducing new states, either by extending the possible values of state variables, or by weakening their constraints; (ii) adapts the perception function to fit the observed data (iii) adapts the transition function on the basis of the executed actions and the effects observed via the perception function. The framework is able to deal with exogenous events that happen in the environment.
Hypothesis-based Belief Planning for Dexterous Grasping
Zito, Claudio, Ortenzi, Valerio, Adjigble, Maxime, Kopicki, Marek, Stolkin, Rustam, Wyatt, Jeremy L.
Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract Belief space planning is a viable alternative to formalise partially observable control problems and, in the recent years, its application to robot manipulation problems has grown. However, this planning approach was tried successfully only on simplified control problems. In this paper, we apply belief space planning to the problem of planning dexterous reach-tograsp trajectories under object pose uncertainty. In our framework, the robot perceives the object to be grasped on-the-fly as a point cloud and compute a full 6D, non-Gaussian distribution over the object's pose (our belief space). The system has no limitations on the geometry of the object, i.e., non-convex objects can be represented, nor assumes that the point cloud is a complete Figure 1: Boris: half-humanoid robot platform developed representation of the object. A plan in the belief space at the University of Birmingham. is then created to reach and grasp the object, such that the information value of expected contacts along the trajectory is maximised to compensate for the pose uncertainty. 1 Introduction If an unexpected contact occurs when performing the action, such information is used to refine Imagine that you are reaching into the fridge to grasp the pose distribution and triggers a re-planning. Experimental an object you can only partially see. Rather than relying results show that our planner (IR3ne) improves solely on vision, you must use touch in order to grasp reliability and compensates for the pose uncertainty localise it and securely grasp it.
Online Human Activity Recognition Employing Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models
Asghari, Parviz, Soelimani, Elnaz, Nazerfard, Ehsan
In the last few years there has been a growing interest in Human Activity Recognition~(HAR) topic. Sensor-based HAR approaches, in particular, has been gaining more popularity owing to their privacy preserving nature. Furthermore, due to the widespread accessibility of the internet, a broad range of streaming-based applications such as online HAR, has emerged over the past decades. However, proposing sufficiently robust online activity recognition approach in smart environment setting is still considered as a remarkable challenge. This paper presents a novel online application of Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model in order to detect the current activity on the live streaming of sensor events. Our method consists of two phases. In the first phase, data stream is segmented based on the beginning and ending of the activity patterns. Also, on-going activity is reported with every receiving observation. This phase is implemented using Hierarchical Hidden Markov models. The second phase is devoted to the correction of the provided label for the segmented data stream based on statistical features. The proposed model can also discover the activities that happen during another activity - so-called interrupted activities. After detecting the activity pane, the predicted label will be corrected utilizing statistical features such as time of day at which the activity happened and the duration of the activity. We validated our proposed method by testing it against two different smart home datasets and demonstrated its effectiveness, which is competing with the state-of-the-art methods.
On the Pitfalls of Measuring Emergent Communication
Lowe, Ryan, Foerster, Jakob, Boureau, Y-Lan, Pineau, Joelle, Dauphin, Yann
How do we know if communication is emerging in a multi-agent system? The vast majority of recent papers on emergent communication show that adding a communication channel leads to an increase in reward or task success. This is a useful indicator, but provides only a coarse measure of the agent's learned communication abilities. As we move towards more complex environments, it becomes imperative to have a set of finer tools that allow qualitative and quantitative insights into the emergence of communication. This may be especially useful to allow humans to monitor agents' behaviour, whether for fault detection, assessing performance, or even building trust. In this paper, we examine a few intuitive existing metrics for measuring communication, and show that they can be misleading. Specifically, by training deep reinforcement learning agents to play simple matrix games augmented with a communication channel, we find a scenario where agents appear to communicate (their messages provide information about their subsequent action), and yet the messages do not impact the environment or other agent in any way. We explain this phenomenon using ablation studies and by visualizing the representations of the learned policies. We also survey some commonly used metrics for measuring emergent communication, and provide recommendations as to when these metrics should be used.
Markov Networks: Undirected Graphical Models
This article briefs you about Markov Networks which falls under the family of Undirected Graphical Models (UGM). This article is a follow-up to Bayesian Network, which is a type of Directed Graphical Models. Key Motivation behind these networks is to parameterize the Joint Probability Distribution based on Local Independencies between Random Variables. Generally, Bayesian Network requires to pre-define a directionality to assert an influence of random variable. But there might be cases where interaction between nodes ( or random variables) are symmetric in nature, and we would like to have a model which can represent this symmetricity without directional influence.