In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent factors (or features) within the building such as the number of individuals, the turning on and off of electrical devices, power surges, etc. These latent factors are usually present for a contiguous period of time before disappearing; further, multiple factors could be present at a time. This paper develops new probabilistic methodology and inference methods for random object generation influenced by latent features exhibiting temporal persistence. Every datum is associated with subsets of a potentially infinite number of hidden, persistent features that account for temporal dynamics in an observation. The ensuing class of dynamic models constructed by adapting the Indian Buffet Process --- a probability measure on the space of random, unbounded binary matrices --- finds use in a variety of applications arising in operations, signal processing, biomedicine, marketing, image analysis, etc. Illustrations using synthetic and real data are provided.

Predicting the outcomes of integrating Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) into the National Aerospace (NAS) is a complex problem which is required to be addressed by simulation studies before allowing the routine access of UAS into the NAS. This thesis focuses on providing 2D and 3D simulation frameworks using a game theoretical methodology to evaluate integration concepts in scenarios where manned and unmanned air vehicles co-exist. The fundamental gap in the literature is that the models of interaction between manned and unmanned vehicles are insufficient: a) they assume that pilot behavior is known a priori and b) they disregard decision making processes. The contribution of this work is to propose a modeling framework, in which, human pilot reactions are modeled using reinforcement learning and a game theoretical concept called level-k reasoning to fill this gap. The level-k reasoning concept is based on the assumption that humans have various levels of decision making. Reinforcement learning is a mathematical learning method that is rooted in human learning. In this work, a classical and an approximate reinforcement learning (Neural Fitted Q Iteration) methods are used to model time-extended decisions of pilots with 2D and 3D maneuvers. An analysis of UAS integration is conducted using example scenarios in the presence of manned aircraft and fully autonomous UAS equipped with sense and avoid algorithms.

The ability to use data about prior decisions and their outcomes to make counterfactual inferences about how alternative decision policies might perform, is a cornerstone of intelligent behavior. It also has immense practical potential - it can enable the use of electronic medical record data to infer better treatment decisions for patients, the use of prior product recommendations to inform more effective strategies for presenting recommendations, and previously collected data from students using educational software to better teach those and future students. Such counterfactual reasoning, particularly when one is deriving decision policies that will be used to make not one but a sequence of decisions, is important since online sampling during a learning procedure is both costly and dangerous, and not practical in many of the applications above. While amply motivated, doing such counterfactual reasoning is also challenging because the data is censored - we can only observe the result of providing a particular chemotherapy treatment policy to a particular patient, not the counterfactual of if we were then to start with a radiation sequence. We focus on the problem of performing such counterfactual inferences in the context of sequential decision making in a Markov decision process (MDP).

We propose a data-driven 3D shape design method that can learn a generative model from a corpus of existing designs, and use this model to produce a wide range of new designs. The approach learns an encoding of the samples in the training corpus using an unsupervised variational autoencoder-decoder architecture, without the need for an explicit parametric representation of the original designs. To facilitate the generation of smooth final surfaces, we develop a 3D shape representation based on a distance transformation of the original 3D data, rather than using the commonly utilized binary voxel representation. Once established, the generator maps the latent space representations to the high-dimensional distance transformation fields, which are then automatically surfaced to produce 3D representations amenable to physics simulations or other objective function evaluation modules. We demonstrate our approach for the computational design of gliders that are optimized to attain prescribed performance scores. Our results show that when combined with genetic optimization, the proposed approach can generate a rich set of candidate concept designs that achieve prescribed functional goals, even when the original dataset has only a few or no solutions that achieve these goals.

Using touch devices to navigate in virtual 3D environments such as computer assisted design (CAD) models or geographical information systems (GIS) is inherently difficult for humans, as the 3D operations have to be performed by the user on a 2D touch surface. This ill-posed problem is classically solved with a fixed and handcrafted interaction protocol, which must be learned by the user. We propose to automatically learn a new interaction protocol allowing to map a 2D user input to 3D actions in virtual environments using reinforcement learning (RL). A fundamental problem of RL methods is the vast amount of interactions often required, which are difficult to come by when humans are involved. To overcome this limitation, we make use of two collaborative agents. The first agent models the human by learning to perform the 2D finger trajectories. The second agent acts as the interaction protocol, interpreting and translating to 3D operations the 2D finger trajectories from the first agent. We restrict the learned 2D trajectories to be similar to a training set of collected human gestures by first performing state representation learning, prior to reinforcement learning. This state representation learning is addressed by projecting the gestures into a latent space learned by a variational auto encoder (VAE).

We propose a method for constructing artificial intelligence (AI) of mahjong, which is a multiplayer imperfect information game. Since the size of the game tree is huge, constructing an expert-level AI player of mahjong is challenging. We define multiple Markov decision processes (MDPs) as abstractions of mahjong to construct effective search trees. We also introduce two methods of inferring state values of the original mahjong using these MDPs. We evaluated the effectiveness of our method using gameplays vis-\`{a}-vis the current strongest AI player.

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of an equipment or one of its components is defined as the time left until the equipment or component reaches its end of useful life. Accurate RUL estimation is exceptionally beneficial to Predictive Maintenance, and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Data driven approaches which leverage the power of algorithms for RUL estimation using sensor and operational time series data are gaining popularity. Existing algorithms, such as linear regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have their own limitations for the RUL estimation task. In this work, we propose a novel Functional Data Analysis (FDA) method called functional Multilayer Perceptron (functional MLP) for RUL estimation. Functional MLP treats time series data from multiple equipment as a sample of random continuous processes over time. FDA explicitly incorporates both the correlations within the same equipment and the random variations across different equipment's sensor time series into the model. FDA also has the benefit of allowing the relationship between RUL and sensor variables to vary over time. We implement functional MLP on the benchmark NASA C-MAPSS data and evaluate the performance using two popularly-used metrics. Results show the superiority of our algorithm over all the other state-of-the-art methods.

Underwater gas reservoirs are used in many situations. In particular, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facilities that are currently being developed intend to store greenhouse gases inside geological formations in the deep sea. In these formations, however, the gas might percolate, leaking back to the water and eventually to the atmosphere. The early detection of such leaks is therefore tantamount to any underwater CCS project. In this work, we propose to use Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) and a machine learning approach to design efficient detectors that can signal the presence of a leakage. We use data obtained from simulation experiments off the Brazilian shore, and show that the detection based on classification algorithms achieve good performance. We also propose a smoothing strategy based on Hidden Markov Models in order to incorporate previous knowledge about the probabilities of leakage occurrences.

Deep Q-Learning has been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks in the past several years. However, the architecture of the vanilla Deep Q-Network is not suited to deal with partially observable environments such as 3D video games. For this, recurrent layers have been added to the Deep Q-Network in order to allow it to handle past dependencies. We here use Minecraft for its customization advantages and design two very simple missions that can be frames as Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. We compare on these missions the Deep Q-Network and the Deep Recurrent Q-Network in order to see if the latter, which is trickier and longer to train, is always the best architecture when the agent has to deal with partial observability.

Most real-world datasets, and particularly those collected from physical systems, are full of noise, packet loss, and other imperfections. However, most specification mining, anomaly detection and other such algorithms assume, or even require, perfect data quality to function properly. Such algorithms may work in lab conditions when given clean, controlled data, but will fail in the field when given imperfect data. We propose a method for accurately reconstructing discrete temporal or sequential system traces affected by data loss, using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs). The model works by learning to predict the next event in a sequence of events, and uses its own output as an input to continue predicting future events. As a result, this method can be used for data restoration even with streamed data. Such a method can reconstruct even long sequence of missing events, and can also help validate and improve data quality for noisy data. The output of the model will be a close reconstruction of the true data, and can be fed to algorithms that rely on clean data. We demonstrate our method by reconstructing automotive CAN traces consisting of long sequences of discrete events. We show that given even small parts of a CAN trace, our LSTM model can predict future events with an accuracy of almost 90%, and can successfully reconstruct large portions of the original trace, greatly outperforming a Markov Model benchmark. We separately feed the original, lossy, and reconstructed traces into a specification mining framework to perform downstream analysis of the effect of our method on state-of-the-art models that use these traces for understanding the behavior of complex systems.