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 Markov Models


Scalable and transferable learning of algorithms via graph embedding for multi-robot reward collection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Can the success of reinforcement learning methods for combinatorial optimization problems be extended to multi-robot scheduling problems in stochastic contexts? Three issues are particularly important in this context: quality of the resulting decisions, scalability, and transferability. To achieve these ends we generalize the concept of clique potential to stochastic clique potential. We extend a mean field inference fixed point iteration with this new concept and use it to modify thestructure2vec method. We next propose a new reinforcement learning framework combining a graph representation of the problem and a consensus auction inspired by heuristics in the problem domain. This representation enables transferability in terms of the number of robots. Sequential encoding of information through multiple layers of our extended structure2vec results in 96% optimal performance of the learned heuristics. While training tractability is inherited from single robot methods in the literature, use of a multi-robot consensus auction-based relaxation of the maximum operation in the Bellman optimality equation allows for scalable selection of actions in the fitted Q-iteration. We apply our framework to multi-robot reward collection (MRRC) problems in stochastic environments with linear or non-linear rewards. In stochastic environments with non-linear rewards, the new method achieves 20% superior performance relative to the popular sequential greedy assignment (SGA) algorithm. Linear scalability in terms of training is achieved and demonstrated. Transferability is demonstrated by the use of a heuristic trained with three robots that continues to achieve 95% optimal performance when applied to problems with various numbers of robots. We further mention the results obtained when extending the approach to identical parallel machine scheduling(IPMS) problems.


Reinforcement Learning for Slate-based Recommender Systems: A Tractable Decomposition and Practical Methodology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recommender systems have become ubiquitous, transforming user interactions with products, services and content in a wide variety of domains. In content recommendation, recommenders generally surface relevant and/or novel personalized content based on learned models of user preferences (e.g., as in collaborative filtering [Breese et al., 1998, Konstan et al., 1997, Srebro et al., 2004, Salakhutdinov and Mnih, 2007]) or predictive models of user responses to specific recommendations. Well-known applications of recommender systems include video recommendations on YouTube [Covington et al., 2016], movie recommendations on Netflix [Gomez-Uribe and Hunt, 2016] and playlist construction on Spotify [Jacobson et al., 2016]. It is increasingly common to train deep neural networks (DNNs) [van den Oord et al., 2013, Wang et al., 2015, Covington et al., 2016, Cheng et al., 2016] to predict user responses (e.g., click-through rates, content engagement, ratings, likes) to generate, score and serve candidate recommendations. Practical recommender systems largely focus on myopic prediction--estimating a user's immediate response to a recommendation--without considering the long-term impact on subsequent user behavior. This can be limiting: modeling a recommendation's stochastic impact on the future affords opportunities to trade off user engagement in the near-term for longer-term benefit (e.g., by probing a user's interests, or improving satisfaction).


ActiveHARNet: Towards On-Device Deep Bayesian Active Learning for Human Activity Recognition

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Various health-care applications such as assisted living, fall detection etc., require modeling of user behavior through Human Activity Recognition (HAR). HAR using mobile- and wearable-based deep learning algorithms have been on the rise owing to the advancements in pervasive computing. However, there are two other challenges that need to be addressed: first, the deep learning model should support on-device incremental training (model updation) from real-time incoming data points to learn user behavior over time, while also being resource-friendly; second, a suitable ground truthing technique (like Active Learning) should help establish labels on-the-fly while also selecting only the most informative data points to query from an oracle. Hence, in this paper, we propose ActiveHARNet, a resource-efficient deep ensembled model which supports on-device Incremental Learning and inference, with capabilities to represent model uncertainties through approximations in Bayesian Neural Networks using dropout. This is combined with suitable acquisition functions for active learning. Empirical results on two publicly available wrist-worn HAR and fall detection datasets indicate that ActiveHARNet achieves considerable efficiency boost during inference across different users, with a substantially low number of acquired pool points (at least 60% reduction) during incremental learning on both datasets experimented with various acquisition functions, thus demonstrating deployment and Incremental Learning feasibility.


Bayesian Tensor Factorisation for Bottom-up Hidden Tree Markov Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bottom-Up Hidden Tree Markov Model is a highly expressive model for tree-structured data. Unfortunately, it cannot be used in practice due to the intractable size of its state-transition matrix. We propose a new approximation which lies on the Tucker factorisation of tensors. The probabilistic interpretation of such approximation allows us to define a new probabilistic model for tree-structured data. Hence, we define the new approximated model and we derive its learning algorithm. Then, we empirically assess the effective power of the new model evaluating it on two different tasks. In both cases, our model outperforms the other approximated model known in the literature.


Neural Markov Logic Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce Neural Markov Logic Networks (NMLNs), a statistical relational learning system that borrows ideas from Markov logic. Like Markov Logic Networks (MLNs), NMLNs are an exponential-family model for modelling distributions over possible worlds, but unlike MLNs, they do not rely on explicitly specified first-order logic rules. Instead, NMLNs learn an implicit representation of such rules as a neural network that acts as a potential function on fragments of the relational structure. Interestingly, any MLN can be represented as an NMLN. Similarly to recently proposed Neural theorem provers (NTPs) [Rocktรคschel and Riedel, 2017], NMLNs can exploit embeddings of constants but, unlike NTPs, NMLNs work well also in their absence. This is extremely important for predicting in settings other than the transductive one.


AAIEA2019

#artificialintelligence

The Workshop on Accelerating Artificial Intelligence for Embedded Autonomy aims at gathering researchers and practitioners in the fields of autonomy, automated reasoning, planning algorithms, and embedded systems to discuss the development of novel hardware architectures that can accelerate the wide variety of AI algorithms demanded by advanced autonomous and intelligent systems. Topics of interest include hardware architectures and design methodologies to accelerate: Applications based on deep learning, skill-level and instinctive autonomy based on deep reinforcement learning, storage and retrieval of facts in knowledge bases, logical reasoning methods such as deduction, search for classical planning algorithms and Hierarchical Task Networks (HTN), inference in probabilistic models such as Bayesian networks and probabilistic logic, planning algorithms for Markov Decision Processes (MDP), and planning algorithms for Partial Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP).


Factorized Inference in Deep Markov Models for Incomplete Multimodal Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Integrating deep learning with latent state space models has the potential to yield temporal models that are powerful, yet tractable and interpretable. Unfortunately, current models are not designed to handle missing data or multiple data modalities, which are both prevalent in real-world data. In this work, we introduce a factorized inference method for Multimodal Deep Markov Models (MDMMs), allowing us to filter and smooth in the presence of missing data, while also performing uncertainty-aware multimodal fusion. We derive this method by factorizing the posterior p(z|x) for non-linear state space models, and develop a variational backward-forward algorithm for inference. Because our method handles incompleteness over both time and modalities, it is capable of interpolation, extrapolation, conditional generation, and label prediction in multimodal time series. We demonstrate these capabilities on both synthetic and real-world multimodal data under high levels of data deletion. Our method performs well even with more than 50% missing data, and outperforms existing deep approaches to inference in latent time series.


Using Latent Variable Models to Observe Academic Pathways

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding large-scale patterns in student course enrollment is a problem of great interest to university administrators and educational researchers. Yet important decisions are often made without a good quantitative framework of the process underlying student choices. We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling course enrollment decisions, drawing inspiration from multilabel classification and mixture models. We use ten years of anonymized student transcripts from a large university to construct a Gaussian latent variable model that learns the joint distribution over course enrollments. The models allow for a diverse set of inference queries and robustness to data sparsity. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach in comparison to others, including deep learning architectures, and demonstrate its ability to infer the underlying student interests that guide enrollment decisions.


Privacy Amplification by Mixing and Diffusion Mechanisms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A fundamental result in differential privacy states that the privacy guarantees of a mechanism are preserved by any post-processing of its output. In this paper we investigate under what conditions stochastic post-processing can amplify the privacy of a mechanism. By interpreting post-processing as the application of a Markov operator, we first give a series of amplification results in terms of uniform mixing properties of the Markov process defined by said operator. Next we provide amplification bounds in terms of coupling arguments which can be applied in cases where uniform mixing is not available. Finally, we introduce a new family of mechanisms based on diffusion processes which are closed under post-processing, and analyze their privacy via a novel heat flow argument. As applications, we show that the rate of "privacy amplification by iteration" in Noisy SGD introduced by Feldman et al. [FOCS'18] admits an exponential improvement in the strongly convex case, and propose a simple mechanism based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which has better mean squared error than the Gaussian mechanism when releasing a bounded function of the data.


A Block Diagonal Markov Model for Indoor Software-Defined Power Line Communication

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A Semi-Hidden Markov Model (SHMM) for bursty error channels is defined by a state transition probability matrix $A$, a prior probability vector $\Pi$, and the state dependent output symbol error probability matrix $B$. Several processes are utilized for estimating $A$, $\Pi$ and $B$ from a given empirically obtained or simulated error sequence. However, despite placing some restrictions on the underlying Markov model structure, we still have a computationally intensive estimation procedure, especially given a large error sequence containing long burst of identical symbols. Thus, in this paper, we utilize under some moderate assumptions, a Markov model with random state transition matrix $A$ equivalent to a unique Block Diagonal Markov model with state transition matrix $\Lambda$ to model an indoor software-defined power line communication system. A computationally efficient modified Baum-Welch algorithm for estimation of $\Lambda$ given an experimentally obtained error sequence from the indoor PLC channel is utilized. Resulting Equivalent Block Diagonal Markov models assist designers to accelerate and facilitate the procedure of novel PLC systems design and evaluation.