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 Markov Models


A Scheme for Dynamic Risk-Sensitive Sequential Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a scheme for sequential decision making with a risk-sensitive objective and constraints in a dynamic environment. A neural network is trained as an approximator of the mapping from parameter space to space of risk and policy with risk-sensitive constraints. For a given risk-sensitive problem, in which the objective and constraints are, or can be estimated by, functions of the mean and variance of return, we generate a synthetic dataset as training data. Parameters defining a targeted process might be dynamic, i.e., they might vary over time, so we sample them within specified intervals to deal with these dynamics. We show that: i). Most risk measures can be estimated using return variance; ii). By virtue of the state-augmentation transformation, practical problems modeled by Markov decision processes with stochastic rewards can be solved in a risk-sensitive scenario; and iii). The proposed scheme is validated by a numerical experiment.


Expressive power of tensor-network factorizations for probabilistic modeling, with applications from hidden Markov models to quantum machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tensor-network techniques have enjoyed outstanding success in physics, and have recently attracted attention in machine learning, both as a tool for the formulation of new learning algorithms and for enhancing the mathematical understanding of existing methods. Inspired by these developments, and the natural correspondence between tensor networks and probabilistic graphical models, we provide a rigorous analysis of the expressive power of various tensor-network factorizations of discrete multivariate probability distributions. These factorizations include non-negative tensor-trains/MPS, which are in correspondence with hidden Markov models, and Born machines, which are naturally related to local quantum circuits. When used to model probability distributions, they exhibit tractable likelihoods and admit efficient learning algorithms. Interestingly, we prove that there exist probability distributions for which there are unbounded separations between the resource requirements of some of these tensor-network factorizations. Particularly surprising is the fact that using complex instead of real tensors can lead to an arbitrarily large reduction in the number of parameters of the network. Additionally, we introduce locally purified states (LPS), a new factorization inspired by techniques for the simulation of quantum systems, with provably better expressive power than all other representations considered. The ramifications of this result are explored through numerical experiments. Our findings imply that LPS should be considered over hidden Markov models, and furthermore provide guidelines for the design of local quantum circuits for probabilistic modeling.


Routine Modeling with Time Series Metric Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditionally, the automatic recognition of human activities is performed with supervised learning algorithms on limited sets of specific activities. This work proposes to recognize recurrent activity patterns, called routines, instead of precisely defined activities. The modeling of routines is defined as a metric learning problem, and an architecture, called SS2S, based on sequence-to-sequence models is proposed to learn a distance between time series. This approach only relies on inertial data and is thus non intrusive and preserves privacy. Experimental results show that a clustering algorithm provided with the learned distance is able to recover daily routines.


Variational Inference MPC for Bayesian Model-based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent studies on model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), incorporating uncertainty in forward dynamics is a state-of-the-art strategy to enhance learning performance, making MBRLs competitive to cutting-edge model free methods, especially in simulated robotics tasks. Probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) is a leading type of MBRL, which employs Bayesian inference to dynamics modeling and model predictive control (MPC) with stochastic optimization via the cross entropy method (CEM). In this paper, we propose a novel extension to the uncertainty-aware MBRL. Our main contributions are twofold: Firstly, we introduce a variational inference MPC, which reformulates various stochastic methods, including CEM, in a Bayesian fashion. Secondly, we propose a novel instance of the framework, called probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS). As a result, our Bayesian MBRL can involve multimodal uncertainties both in dynamics and optimal trajectories. In comparison to PETS, our method consistently improves asymptotic performance on several challenging locomotion tasks.


Learning Neural Sequence-to-Sequence Models from Weak Feedback with Bipolar Ramp Loss

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many machine learning scenarios, supervision by gold labels is not available and consequently neural models cannot be trained directly by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). In a weak supervision scenario, metric-augmented objectives can be employed to assign feedback to model outputs, which can be used to extract a supervision signal for training. We present several objectives for two separate weakly supervised tasks, machine translation and semantic parsing. We show that objectives should actively discourage negative outputs in addition to promoting a surrogate gold structure. This notion of bipolarity is naturally present in ramp loss objectives, which we adapt to neural models. We show that bipolar ramp loss objectives outperform other non-bipolar ramp loss objectives and minimum risk training (MRT) on both weakly supervised tasks, as well as on a supervised machine translation task. Additionally, we introduce a novel token-level ramp loss objective, which is able to outperform even the best sequence-level ramp loss on both weakly supervised tasks.


Modern Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning, grounded on combining classical theoretical results with Deep Learning paradigm, led to breakthroughs in many artificial intelligence tasks and gave birth to Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a field of research. In this work latest DRL algorithms are reviewed with a focus on their theoretical justification, practical limitations and observed empirical properties.


A Communication-Efficient Multi-Agent Actor-Critic Algorithm for Distributed Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, there has been increasing interest in developing distributed machine learning algorithms. Notable examples include distributed linear regression [1], multi-arm bandit [2], reinforcement learning (RL) [3], and deep learning [4]. Such algorithms have promising applications in large-scale networks, such as social platforms, online economic networks, cyber-physical systems, and Internet of Things, primarily because in such a complex network, it is impossible to collect all the information at the same point and each component of the network may not be willing to share its private information due to privacy issues. Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problems have recently received increasing attention. In general, MARL problems are investigated in settings that are either collaborative, competitive, or a mixture of the two. For collaborative MARL, the most rudimentary framework is the canonical multi-agent Markov decision process [5, 6], where the agents share a common reward function that is determined by the joint actions of all agents. Another notable framework for collaborative MARL is the team Markov game model, also with a shared reward function among agents [7, 8]. These two frameworks were then extended to the setting where agents are allowed to have heterogeneous reward functions[3,9-12], collaborating with the goal of maximizing the long-term return corresponding to the team averaged reward.


Abstracting Probabilistic Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstraction is a powerful idea widely used in science, to model, reason and explain the behavior of systems in a more tractable search space, by omitting irrelevant details. While notions of abstraction have matured for deterministic systems, the case for abstracting probabilistic models is not yet fully understood. In this paper, we provide a semantical framework for analyzing such abstractions from first principles. We develop the framework in a general way, allowing for expressive languages, including logic-based ones that admit relational and hierarchical constructs with stochastic primitives. We motivate a definition of consistency between a high-level model and its low-level counterpart, but also treat the case when the high-level model is missing critical information present in the low-level model. We prove properties of abstractions, both at the level of the parameter as well as the structure of the models. We conclude with some observations about how abstractions can be derived automatically.


Maximum Expected Hitting Cost of a Markov Decision Process and Informativeness of Rewards

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new complexity measure for Markov decision processes (MDP), the maximum expected hitting cost (MEHC). This measure tightens the closely related notion of diameter [JOA10] by accounting for the reward structure. We show that this parameter replaces diameter in the upper bound on the optimal value span of an extended MDP, thus refining the associated upper bounds on the regret of several UCRL2-like algorithms. Furthermore, we show that potential-based reward shaping [NHR99] can induce equivalent reward functions with varying informativeness, as measured by MEHC. We further establish that shaping can reduce or increase MEHC by at most a factor of two in a large class of MDPs with finite MEHC and unsaturated optimal average rewards.


Predicting e-commerce customer conversion from minimal temporal patterns on symbolized clickstream trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowing if a user is a "buyer" vs "window shopper" solely based on clickstream data is of crucial importance for e-commerce platforms seeking to implement real-time accurate NBA ("next best action") policies. However, due to the low frequency of conversion events and the noisiness of browsing data, classifying user sessions is very challenging. In this paper, we address the clickstream classification problem in the eCommerce industry and present three major contributions to the burgeoning field of A.I.-for-retail: first, we collected, normalized and prepared a novel dataset of live shopping sessions from a major European e-commerce website; second, we use the dataset to test in a controlled environment strong baselines and SOTA models from the literature; finally, we propose a new discriminative neural model that outperforms neural architectures recently proposed by [1] at Rakuten labs.