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 Markov Models


Entropic Regularization of Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An optimal feedback controller for a given Markov decision process (MDP) can in principle be synthesized by value or policy iteration. However, if the system dynamics and the reward function are unknown, a learning agent must discover an optimal controller via direct interaction with the environment. Such interactive data gathering commonly leads to divergence towards dangerous or uninformative regions of the state space unless additional regularization measures are taken. Prior works proposed bounding the information loss measured by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence at every policy improvement step to eliminate instability in the learning dynamics. In this paper, we consider a broader family of $f$-divergences, and more concretely $\alpha$-divergences, which inherit the beneficial property of providing the policy improvement step in closed form at the same time yielding a corresponding dual objective for policy evaluation. Such entropic proximal policy optimization view gives a unified perspective on compatible actor-critic architectures. In particular, common least-squares value function estimation coupled with advantage-weighted maximum likelihood policy improvement is shown to correspond to the Pearson $\chi^2$-divergence penalty. Other actor-critic pairs arise for various choices of the penalty-generating function $f$. On a concrete instantiation of our framework with the $\alpha$-divergence, we carry out asymptotic analysis of the solutions for different values of $\alpha$ and demonstrate the effects of the divergence function choice on common standard reinforcement learning problems.


Learning End-to-End Goal-Oriented Dialog with Maximal User Task Success and Minimal Human Agent Use

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural end-to-end goal-oriented dialog systems showed promise to reduce the workload of human agents for customer service, as well as reduce wait time for users. However, their inability to handle new user behavior at deployment has limited their usage in real world. In this work, we propose an end-to-end trainable method for neural goal-oriented dialog systems which handles new user behaviors at deployment by transferring the dialog to a human agent intelligently. The proposed method has three goals: 1) maximize user's task success by transferring to human agents, 2) minimize the load on the human agents by transferring to them only when it is essential and 3) learn online from the human agent's responses to reduce human agents load further. We evaluate our proposed method on a modified-bAbI dialog task that simulates the scenario of new user behaviors occurring at test time. Experimental results show that our proposed method is effective in achieving the desired goals.


Adversarial Security Attacks and Perturbations on Machine Learning and Deep Learning Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Cybersecurity also benefits from ML and DL methods for various types of applications. These methods however are susceptible to security attacks. The adversaries can exploit the training and testing data of the learning models or can explore the workings of those models for launching advanced future attacks. The topic of adversarial security attacks and perturbations within the ML and DL domains is a recent exploration and a great interest is expressed by the security researchers and practitioners. The literature covers different adversarial security attacks and perturbations on ML and DL methods and those have their own presentation styles and merits. A need to review and consolidate knowledge that is comprehending of this increasingly focused and growing topic of research; however, is the current demand of the research communities. In this review paper, we specifically aim to target new researchers in the cybersecurity domain who may seek to acquire some basic knowledge on the machine learning and deep learning models and algorithms, as well as some of the relevant adversarial security attacks and perturbations.


Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in general performing exact inference requires all of the data to be processed at each iteration of the algorithm. For large data sets, the computational cost of MCMC can be prohibitive, which has led to recent developments in scalable Monte Carlo algorithms that have a significantly lower computational cost than standard MCMC. In this paper, we focus on a particular class of scalable Monte Carlo algorithms, stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) which utilises data subsampling techniques to reduce the per-iteration cost of MCMC. We provide an introduction to some popular SGMCMC algorithms and review the supporting theoretical results, as well as comparing the efficiency of SGMCMC algorithms against MCMC on benchmark examples. The supporting R code is available online.


Dynamical Systems as Temporal Feature Spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Parameterized state space models in the form of recurrent networks are often used in machine learning to learn from data streams exhibiting temporal dependencies. To break the black box nature of such models it is important to understand the dynamical features of the input driving time series that are formed in the state space. We propose a framework for rigorous analysis of such state representations in vanishing memory state space models such as echo state networks (ESN). In particular, we consider the state space a temporal feature space and the readout mapping from the state space a kernel machine operating in that feature space. We show that: (1) The usual ESN strategy of randomly generating input-to-state, as well as state coupling leads to shallow memory time series representations, corresponding to cross-correlation operator with fast exponentially decaying coefficients; (2) Imposing symmetry on dynamic coupling yields a constrained dynamic kernel matching the input time series with straightforward exponentially decaying motifs or exponentially decaying motifs of the highest frequency; (3) Simple cycle high-dimensional reservoir topology specified only through two free parameters can implement deep memory dynamic kernels with a rich variety of matching motifs. We quantify richness of feature representations imposed by dynamic kernels and demonstrate that for dynamic kernel associated with cycle reservoir topology, the kernel richness undergoes a phase transition close to the edge of stability.


Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with sequential proposals

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We explore a general framework in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling where sequential proposals are tried as a candidate for the next state of the Markov chain. This sequential-proposal framework can be applied to various existing MCMC methods, including Metropolis-Hastings algorithms using random proposals and methods that use deterministic proposals such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo or the bouncy particle sampler. Sequential-proposal MCMC methods construct the same Markov chains as those constructed by the delayed rejection method under certain circumstances. We demonstrate that applications of the sequential-proposal framework to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods can lead to improved numerical efficiency compared to standard HMC methods and the No-U-Turn sampler. Finally, we show that the sequential-proposal bouncy particle sampler enables the constructed Markov chain to pass through regions of low target density and thus facilitates better mixing of the chain when the target density is multimodal.


On the Role of Time in Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

By and large the process of learning concepts that are embedded in time is regarded as quite a mature research topic. Hidden Markov models, recurrent neural networks are, amongst others, successful approaches to learning from temporal data. In this paper, we claim that the dominant approach minimizing appropriate risk functions defined over time by classic stochastic gradient might miss the deep interpretation of time given in other fields like physics. We show that a recent reformulation of learning according to the principle of Least Cognitive Action is better suited whenever time is involved in learning. The principle gives rise to a learning process that is driven by differential equations, that can somehow descrive the process within the same framework as other laws of nature.


On the Global Convergence of Actor-Critic: A Case for Linear Quadratic Regulator with Ergodic Cost

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Compared with the classical policy gradient algorithm 1992), actor-critic tracks the action-value function (critic) in policy gradient in an online(Williams, manner, and alternatively updates the policy (actor) and the critic. On the one hand, the online update of critic significantly reduces the variance of policy gradient and hence leads to faster convergence. On the other hand, it also introduces algorithmic instability, which is often observed in practice (Islam et al., 2017) and parallels the notoriously unstable training of generative adversarial and Vinyals, 2016). Such instability of actor-critic originates from severalnetworks (Pfau intertwining challenges, including(i) function approximation of actor and critic, (ii) improper choice of stepsizes, (iii) the noise arising from stochastic approximation, (iv) the asynchrony between actor and critic, and (v) possibly off-policy data used in the update of critic. As a result, the convergence of actor-critic remains much less well understood than that of policy gradient, which itself is open. Consequently, the practical use of actor-critic often lacks theoretical guidance. In this paper, we aim to theoretically understand the algorithmic instability of actor-critic.


Bayesian Synthesis of Probabilistic Programs for Automatic Data Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present new techniques for automatically constructing probabilistic programs for data analysis, interpretation, and prediction. These techniques work with probabilistic domain-specific data modeling languages that capture key properties of a broad class of data generating processes, using Bayesian inference to synthesize probabilistic programs in these modeling languages given observed data. We provide a precise formulation of Bayesian synthesis for automatic data modeling that identifies sufficient conditions for the resulting synthesis procedure to be sound. We also derive a general class of synthesis algorithms for domain-specific languages specified by probabilistic context-free grammars and establish the soundness of our approach for these languages. We apply the techniques to automatically synthesize probabilistic programs for time series data and multivariate tabular data. We show how to analyze the structure of the synthesized programs to compute, for key qualitative properties of interest, the probability that the underlying data generating process exhibits each of these properties. Second, we translate probabilistic programs in the domain-specific language into probabilistic programs in Venture, a general-purpose probabilistic programming system. The translated Venture programs are then executed to obtain predictions of new time series data and new multivariate data records. Experimental results show that our techniques can accurately infer qualitative structure in multiple real-world data sets and outperform standard data analysis methods in forecasting and predicting new data.


Restricted Boltzmann Machine with Multivalued Hidden Variables

#artificialintelligence

Generalization is one of the most important goals in statistical machine learning problems [1]. In various standard machine learning techniques, given a particular data set, we fit our probabilistic learning model to the empirical distribution (or the data distribution) of the data set. When our learning model is sufficiently flexible, it can fit the empirical distribution exactly via an appropriate learning method. A learning model that is too close to the empirical distribution frequently gives poor results for new data points. This situation is known as over-fitting. Over-fitting impedes generalization; therefore, techniques that can suppress over-fitting are needed to achieve good generalizations.