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 Markov Models


VIL2C: Value-of-Information Aware Low-Latency Communication for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inter-agent communication serves as an effective mechanism for enhancing performance in collaborative multi-agent reinforcement learning(MARL) systems. However, the inherent communication latency in practical systems induces both action decision delays and outdated information sharing, impeding MARL performance gains, particularly in time-critical applications like autonomous driving. In this work, we propose a V alue-of-Information aware Low-latency Communication(VIL2C) scheme that proactively adjusts the latency distribution to mitigate its effects in MARL systems. Specifically, we define a V alue of Information (VOI) metric to quantify the importance of delayed message transmission based on each delayed message's importance. Moreover, we propose a progressive message reception mechanism to adap-tively adjust the reception duration based on received messages. We derive the optimized V oI aware resource allocation and theoretically prove the performance advantage of the proposed VIL2C scheme. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VIL2C outperforms existing approaches under various communication conditions. These gains are attributed to the low-latency transmission of high-V oI messages via resource allocation and the elimination of unnecessary waiting periods via adaptive reception duration.


DecNefLab: A Modular and Interpretable Simulation Framework for Decoded Neurofeedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decoded Neurofeedback (DecNef) is a flourishing non-invasive approach to brain modulation with wide-ranging applications in neuromedicine and cognitive neuroscience. However, progress in DecNef research remains constrained by subject-dependent learning variability, reliance on indirect measures to quantify progress, and the high cost and time demands of experimentation. We present DecNefLab, a modular and interpretable simulation framework that formalizes DecNef as a machine learning problem. Beyond providing a virtual laboratory, DecNefLab enables researchers to model, analyze and understand neurofeedback dynamics. Using latent variable generative models as simulated participants, DecNefLab allows direct observation of internal cognitive states and systematic evaluation of how different protocol designs and subject characteristics influence learning. We demonstrate how this approach can (i) reproduce empirical phenomena of DecNef learning, (ii) identify conditions under which DecNef feedback fails to induce learning, and (iii) guide the design of more robust and reliable DecNef protocols in silico before human implementation. In summary, DecNefLab bridges computational modeling and cognitive neuroscience, offering a principled foundation for methodological innovation, robust protocol design, and ultimately, a deeper understanding of DecNef-based brain modulation.


Aspiration-based Perturbed Learning Automata in Games with Noisy Utility Measurements. Part A: Stochastic Stability in Non-zero-Sum Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement-based learning has attracted considerable attention both in modeling human behavior as well as in engineering, for designing measurement- or payoff-based optimization schemes. Such learning schemes exhibit several advantages, especially in relation to filtering out noisy observations. However, they may exhibit several limitations when applied in a distributed setup. In multi-player weakly-acyclic games, and when each player applies an independent copy of the learning dynamics, convergence to (usually desirable) pure Nash equilibria cannot be guaranteed. Prior work has only focused on a small class of games, namely potential and coordination games. To address this main limitation, this paper introduces a novel payoff-based learning scheme for distributed optimization, namely aspiration-based perturbed learning automata (APLA). In this class of dynamics, and contrary to standard reinforcement-based learning schemes, each player's probability distribution for selecting actions is reinforced both by repeated selection and an aspiration factor that captures the player's satisfaction level. We provide a stochastic stability analysis of APLA in multi-player positive-utility games under the presence of noisy observations. This is the first part of the paper that characterizes stochastic stability in generic non-zero-sum games by establishing equivalence of the induced infinite-dimensional Markov chain with a finite dimensional one. In the second part, stochastic stability is further specialized to weakly acyclic games.


Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Quantum Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which preserves asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves target coverage levels and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.


On a Reinforcement Learning Methodology for Epidemic Control, with application to COVID-19

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents a real time, data driven decision support framework for epidemic control. We combine a compartmental epidemic model with sequential Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning (RL) controllers that adaptively choose intervention levels to balance disease burden, such as intensive care unit (ICU) load, against socio economic costs. We construct a context specific cost function using empirical experiments and expert feedback. We study two RL policies: an ICU threshold rule computed via Monte Carlo grid search, and a policy based on a posterior averaged Q learning agent. We validate the framework by fitting the epidemic model to publicly available ICU occupancy data from the COVID 19 pandemic in England and then generating counterfactual roll out scenarios under each RL controller, which allows us to compare the RL policies to the historical government strategy. Over a 300 day period and for a range of cost parameters, both controllers substantially reduce ICU burden relative to the observed interventions, illustrating how Bayesian sequential learning combined with RL can support the design of epidemic control policies.


Think How Your Teammates Think: Active Inference Can Benefit Decentralized Execution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In multi-agent systems, explicit cognition of teammates' decision logic serves as a critical factor in facilitating coordination. Communication (i.e., ``\textit{Tell}'') can assist in the cognitive development process by information dissemination, yet it is inevitably subject to real-world constraints such as noise, latency, and attacks. Therefore, building the understanding of teammates' decisions without communication remains challenging. To address this, we propose a novel non-communication MARL framework that realizes the construction of cognition through local observation-based modeling (i.e., \textit{``Think''}). Our framework enables agents to model teammates' \textbf{active inference} process. At first, the proposed method produces three teammate portraits: perception-belief-action. Specifically, we model the teammate's decision process as follows: 1) Perception: observing environments; 2) Belief: forming beliefs; 3) Action: making decisions. Then, we selectively integrate the belief portrait into the decision process based on the accuracy and relevance of the perception portrait. This enables the selection of cooperative teammates and facilitates effective collaboration. Extensive experiments on the SMAC, SMACv2, MPE, and GRF benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of our method.


Reinforcement Learning for Self-Healing Material Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transition to autonomous material systems necessitates adaptive control methodologies to maximize structural longevity. This study frames the self-healing process as a Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem within a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling agents to autonomously derive optimal policies that efficiently balance structural integrity maintenance against finite resource consumption. A comparative evaluation of discrete-action (Q-learning, DQN) and continuous-action (TD3) agents in a stochastic simulation environment revealed that RL controllers significantly outperform heuristic baselines, achieving near-complete material recovery. Crucially, the TD3 agent utilizing continuous dosage control demonstrated superior convergence speed and stability, underscoring the necessity of fine-grained, proportional actuation in dynamic self-healing applications.


MOMA-AC: A preference-driven actor-critic framework for continuous multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses a critical gap in Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL) by introducing the first dedicated inner-loop actor-critic framework for continuous state and action spaces: Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Actor-Critic (MOMA-AC). Building on single-objective, single-agent algorithms, we instantiate this framework with Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), yielding MOMA-TD3 and MOMA-DDPG. The framework combines a multi-headed actor network, a centralised critic, and an objective preference-conditioning architecture, enabling a single neural network to encode the Pareto front of optimal trade-off policies for all agents across conflicting objectives in a continuous MOMARL setting. We also outline a natural test suite for continuous MOMARL by combining a pre-existing multi-agent single-objective physics simulator with its multi-objective single-agent counterpart. Evaluating cooperative locomotion tasks in this suite, we show that our framework achieves statistically significant improvements in expected utility and hypervolume relative to outer-loop and independent training baselines, while demonstrating stable scalability as the number of agents increases. These results establish our framework as a foundational step towards robust, scalable multi-objective policy learning in continuous multi-agent domains.


Comparing Labeled Markov Chains: A Cantor-Kantorovich Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Labeled Markov Chains (or LMCs for short) are useful mathematical objects to model complex probabilistic languages. A central challenge is to compare two LMCs, for example to assess the accuracy of an abstraction or to quantify the effect of model perturbations. In this work, we study the recently introduced Cantor-Kantorovich (or CK) distance. In particular we show that the latter can be framed as a discounted sum of finite-horizon Total Variation distances, making it an instance of discounted linear distance, but arising from the natural Cantor topology. Building on the latter observation, we analyze the properties of the CK distance along three dimensions: computational complexity, continuity properties and approximation. More precisely, we show that the exact computation of the CK distance is #P-hard. We also provide an upper bound on the CK distance as a function of the approximation relation between the two LMCs, and show that a bounded CK distance implies a bounded error between probabilities of finite-horizon traces. Finally, we provide a computable approximation scheme, and show that the latter is also #P-hard. Altogether, our results provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for the CK distance and clarify its relationship with existing distances.


Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Data streams collected from multiple sources are rarely independent. V alues evolve over time and influence one another across sequences. These correlations improve prediction in healthcare, finance, and smart-city control yet violate the record-independence assumption built into most Differential Privacy (DP) mechanisms. T o restore rigorous privacy guarantees without sacrificing utility, we introduce Correlated-Sequence Differential Privacy (CSDP), a framework specifically designed for preserving privacy in correlated sequential data. CSDP addresses two linked challenges: quantifying the extra information an attacker gains from joint temporal and cross-sequence links, and adding just enough noise to hide that information while keeping the data useful. We model multivariate streams as a Coupling Markov Chain, yielding the derived loose leakage bound expressed with a few spectral terms and revealing a counterintuitive result: stronger coupling can actually decrease worst-case leakage by dispersing perturbations across sequences. Guided by these bounds, we build the Freshness-Regulated Adaptive Noise (FRAN) mechanism--combining data aging, correlation-aware sensitivity scaling, and Laplace noise--that runs in linear time. T ests on two-sequence datasets show that CSDP improves the privacy-utility trade-off by approximately 50% over existing correlated-DP methods and by two orders of magnitude compared to the standard DP approach.