Algorithmic trading, due to its inherent nature, is a difficult problem to tackle; there are too many variables involved in the real world which make it almost impossible to have reliable algorithms for automated stock trading. The lack of reliable labelled data that considers physical and physiological factors that dictate the ups and downs of the market, has hindered the supervised learning attempts for dependable predictions. To learn a good policy for trading, we formulate an approach using reinforcement learning which uses traditional time series stock price data and combines it with news headline sentiments, while leveraging knowledge graphs for exploiting news about implicit relationships. Keywords: Reinforcement Learning · Trading · Stock Price Prediction · Sentiment Analysis · Knowledge Graph. 1 Introduction Machine learning is mainly about building predictive models from data. When the data are time series, models can also forecast sequences or outcomes.

The Ideal Observer (IO) performance has been advocated when optimizing medical imaging systems for signal detection tasks. However, analytical computation of the IO test statistic is generally intractable. To approximate the IO test statistic, sampling-based methods that employ Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have been developed. However, current applications of MCMC techniques have been limited to several object models such as a lumpy object model and a binary texture model, and it remains unclear how MCMC methods can be implemented with other more sophisticated object models. Deep learning methods that employ generative adversarial networks (GANs) hold great promise to learn stochastic object models (SOMs) from image data. In this study, we described a method to approximate the IO by applying MCMC techniques to SOMs learned by use of GANs. The proposed method can be employed with arbitrary object models that can be learned by use of GANs, thereby the domain of applicability of MCMC techniques for approximating the IO performance is extended. In this study, both signal-known-exactly (SKE) and signal-known-statistically (SKS) binary signal detection tasks are considered. The IO performance computed by the proposed method is compared to that computed by the conventional MCMC method. The advantages of the proposed method are discussed.

Aggregate network properties such as cluster cohesion and the number of bridge nodes can be used to glean insights about a network's community structure, spread of influence and the resilience of the network to faults. Efficiently computing network properties when the network is fully observed has received significant attention (Wasserman and Faust 1994; Cook and Holder 2006), however the problem of computing aggregate network properties when there is missing data attributes has received little attention. Computing these properties for networks with missing attributes involves performing inference over the network. Statistical relational learning (SRL) and graph neural networks (GNNs) are two classes of machine learning approaches well suited for inferring missing attributes in a graph. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of these approaches in estimating aggregate properties on networks with missing attributes. We compare two SRL approaches and three GNNs. For these approaches we estimate these properties using point estimates such as MAP and mean. For SRL-based approaches that can infer a joint distribution over the missing attributes, we also estimate these properties as an expectation over the distribution. To compute the expectation tractably for probabilistic soft logic, one of the SRL approaches that we study, we introduce a novel sampling framework. In the experimental evaluation, using three benchmark datasets, we show that SRL-based approaches tend to outperform GNN-based approaches both in computing aggregate properties and predictive accuracy. Specifically, we show that estimating the aggregate properties as an expectation over the joint distribution outperforms point estimates.

Constrained Markov Decision Processes are a class of stochastic decision problems in which the decision maker must select a policy that satisfies auxiliary cost constraints. This paper extends upper confidence reinforcement learning for settings in which the reward function and the constraints, described by cost functions, are unknown a priori but the transition kernel is known. Such a setting is well-motivated by a number of applications including exploration of unknown, potentially unsafe, environments. We present an algorithm C-UCRL and show that it achieves sub-linear regret ($ O(T^{\frac{3}{4}}\sqrt{\log(T/\delta)})$) with respect to the reward while satisfying the constraints even while learning with probability $1-\delta$. Illustrative examples are provided.

The reproducing Stein kernel approach for post-hoc corrected sampling Liam Hodgkinson 1,, Robert Salomone 2,, and Fred Roosta 3,, † 1 Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA. Abstract: Stein importance sampling [42] is a widely applicable technique based on kernelized Stein discrepancy [43], which corrects the output of approximate sampling algorithms by reweighting the empirical distribution of the samples. A general analysis of this technique is conducted for the previously unconsidered setting where samples are obtained via the simulation of a Markov chain, and applies to an arbitrary underlying Polish space. We prove that Stein importance sampling yields consistent estimators for quantities related to a target distribution of interest by using samples obtained from a geometrically ergodic Markov chain with a possibly unknown invariant measure that differs from the desired target. The approach is shown to be valid under conditions that are satisfied for a large number of unadjusted samplers, and is capable of retaining consistency when data subsampling is used. Along the way, a universal theory of reproducing Stein kernels is established, which enables the construction of kernelized Stein discrepancy on general Polish spaces, and provides sufficient conditions for kernels to be convergence-determining on such spaces. These results are of independent interest for the development of future methodology based on kernelized Stein discrepancies. 1. Introduction Our problem of interest is the efficient computation of integrals with respect to some target probability measure π . Adopting the Monte Carlo approach, π is approximated by an empirical distribution formed from samples drawn according to π . However, in many problems of interest, it is not possible to simulate according to π exactly, and so further approximate methods must be used. Arguably the most widely employed and general approach is Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); successively drawing samples as a realization of a Markov chain. The dominant approach to MCMC involves the simulation of a process that is π -ergodic, often constructed by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm from an underlying irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain [58]. However, there has been significant recent interest in so-called unadjusted MCMC approaches [14, 19, 29, 45]. A common strategy with these methods is the approximate numer-All authors are supported in part by the Australian Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS), under Australian Research Council grant CE140100049. For the same computational effort, one can achieve substantially lower variance of estimates at the cost of incurring additional (asymptotic) bias. Despite poorer asymptotic guarantees [21], the ensuing Markov chains are often rapidly mixing, and perform particularly well in high dimensional settings [20].

We study a multi-armed bandit problem where the rewards exhibit regime-switching. Specifically, the distributions of the random rewards generated from all arms depend on a common underlying state modeled as a finite-state Markov chain. The agent does not observe the underlying state and has to learn the unknown transition probability matrix as well as the reward distribution. We propose an efficient learning algorithm for this problem, building on spectral method-of-moments estimations for hidden Markov models and upper confidence bound methods for reinforcement learning. We also establish $O(T^{2/3}\sqrt{\log T})$ bound on the regret of the proposed learning algorithm where $T$ is the unknown horizon. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to illustrate the effectiveness of the learning algorithm.

Bayesian feature allocation models are a popular tool for modelling data with a combinatorial latent structure. Exact inference in these models is generally intractable and so practitioners typically apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for posterior inference. The most widely used MCMC strategies rely on an element wise Gibbs update of the feature allocation matrix. These element wise updates can be inefficient as features are typically strongly correlated. To overcome this problem we have developed a Gibbs sampler that can update an entire row of the feature allocation matrix in a single move. However, this sampler is impractical for models with a large number of features as the computational complexity scales exponentially in the number of features. We develop a Particle Gibbs sampler that targets the same distribution as the row wise Gibbs updates, but has computational complexity that only grows linearly in the number of features. We compare the performance of our proposed methods to the standard Gibbs sampler using synthetic data from a range of feature allocation models. Our results suggest that row wise updates using the PG methodology can significantly improve the performance of samplers for feature allocation models.

There are situations in which an agent should receive rewards only after having accomplished a series of previous tasks. In other words, the reward that the agent receives is non-Markovian. One natural and quite general way to represent history-dependent rewards is via a Mealy machine; a finite state automaton that produces output sequences (rewards in our case) from input sequences (state/action observations in our case). In our formal setting, we consider a Markov decision process (MDP) that models the dynamic of the environment in which the agent evolves and a Mealy machine synchronised with this MDP to formalise the non-Markovian reward function. While the MDP is known by the agent, the reward function is unknown from the agent and must be learnt. Learning non-Markov reward functions is a challenge. Our approach to overcome this challenging problem is a careful combination of the Angluin's L* active learning algorithm to learn finite automata, testing techniques for establishing conformance of finite model hypothesis and optimisation techniques for computing optimal strategies in Markovian (immediate) reward MDPs. We also show how our framework can be combined with classical heuristics such as Monte Carlo Tree Search. We illustrate our algorithms and a preliminary implementation on two typical examples for AI.

We consider the problem of controlling a possibly unknown linear dynamical system with adversarial perturbations, adversarially chosen convex loss functions, and partially observed states, known as non-stochastic control. We introduce a controller parametrization based on the denoised observations, and prove that applying online gradient descent to this parametrization yields a new controller which attains sublinear regret vs. a large class of closed-loop policies. In the fully-adversarial setting, our controller attains an optimal regret bound of $\sqrt{T}$-when the system is known, and, when combined with an initial stage of least-squares estimation, $T^{2/3}$ when the system is unknown; both yield the first sublinear regret for the partially observed setting. Our bounds are the first in the non-stochastic control setting that compete with \emph{all} stabilizing linear dynamical controllers, not just state feedback. Moreover, in the presence of semi-adversarial noise containing both stochastic and adversarial components, our controller attains the optimal regret bounds of $\mathrm{poly}(\log T)$ when the system is known, and $\sqrt{T}$ when unknown. To our knowledge, this gives the first end-to-end $\sqrt{T}$ regret for online Linear Quadratic Gaussian controller, and applies in a more general setting with adversarial losses and semi-adversarial noise.

We investigate how reinforcement learning can be used to train level-designing agents. This represents a new approach to procedural content generation in games, where level design is framed as a game, and the content generator itself is learned. By seeing the design problem as a sequential task, we can use reinforcement learning to learn how to take the next action so that the expected final level quality is maximized. This approach can be used when few or no examples exist to train from, and the trained generator is very fast. We investigate three different ways of transforming two-dimensional level design problems into Markov decision processes and apply these to three game environments.