We consider the task of learning a parametric Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) sequence model without examples of sequences, where the training data consists entirely of aggregate steady-state statistics. Making the problem harder, we assume that the states we wish to predict are unobserved in the training data. Specifically, given a parametric model over the transition rates of a CTMC and some known transition rates, we wish to extrapolate its steady state distribution to states that are unobserved. A technical roadblock to learn a CTMC from its steady state has been that the chain rule to compute gradients will not work over the arbitrarily long sequences necessary to reach steady state ---from where the aggregate statistics are sampled. To overcome this optimization challenge, we propose $\infty$-SGD, a principled stochastic gradient descent method that uses randomly-stopped estimators to avoid infinite sums required by the steady state computation, while learning even when only a subset of the CTMC states can be observed. We apply $\infty$-SGD to a real-world testbed and synthetic experiments showcasing its accuracy, ability to extrapolate the steady state distribution to unobserved states under unobserved conditions (heavy loads, when training under light loads), and succeeding in difficult scenarios where even a tailor-made extension of existing methods fails.

In this paper we consider infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming problems with finite state and control spaces, and partial state observations. We discuss an algorithm that uses multistep lookahead, truncated rollout with a known base policy, and a terminal cost function approximation. This algorithm is also used for policy improvement in an approximate policy iteration scheme, where successive policies are approximated by using a neural network classifier. A novel feature of our approach is that it is well suited for distributed computation through an extended belief space formulation and the use of a partitioned architecture, which is trained with multiple neural networks. We apply our methods in simulation to a class of sequential repair problems where a robot inspects and repairs a pipeline with potentially several rupture sites under partial information about the state of the pipeline.

Computational intelligence in finance has been a very popular topic for both academia and financial industry in the last few decades. Numerous studies have been published resulting in various models. Meanwhile, within the Machine Learning (ML) field, Deep Learning (DL) started getting a lot of attention recently, mostly due to its outperformance over the classical models. Lots of different implementations of DL exist today, and the broad interest is continuing. Finance is one particular area where DL models started getting traction, however, the playfield is wide open, a lot of research opportunities still exist. In this paper, we tried to provide a state-of-the-art snapshot of the developed DL models for financial applications, as of today. We not only categorized the works according to their intended subfield in finance but also analyzed them based on their DL models. In addition, we also aimed at identifying possible future implementations and highlighted the pathway for the ongoing research within the field.

While learning in an unknown Markov Decision Process (MDP), an agent should trade off exploration to discover new information about the MDP, and exploitation of the current knowledge to maximize the reward. Although the agent will eventually learn a good or optimal policy, there is no guarantee on the quality of the intermediate policies. This lack of control is undesired in real-world applications where a minimum requirement is that the executed policies are guaranteed to perform at least as well as an existing baseline. In this paper, we introduce the notion of conservative exploration for average reward and finite horizon problems. We present two optimistic algorithms that guarantee (w.h.p.) that the conservative constraint is never violated during learning. We derive regret bounds showing that being conservative does not hinder the learning ability of these algorithms.

This paper presents a distributionally robust Q-Learning algorithm (DrQ) which leverages Wasserstein ambiguity sets to provide probabilistic out-of-sample safety guarantees during online learning. First, we follow past work by separating the constraint functions from the principal objective to create a hierarchy of machines within the constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). DrQ works within this framework by augmenting constraint costs with tightening offset variables obtained through Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO). These offset variables correspond to worst-case distributions of modeling error characterized by the TD-errors of the constraint Q-functions. This overall procedure allows us to safely approach the nominal constraint boundaries with strong probabilistic out-of-sample safety guarantees. Using a case study of safe lithium-ion battery fast charging, we demonstrate dramatic improvements in safety and performance relative to a conventional DQN.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed dimension and the log-posterior density is differentiable with respect to the parameters. This paper proposes an extended stochastic gradient MCMC lgoriathm which, by introducing appropriate latent variables, can be applied to more general large-scale Bayesian computing problems, such as those involving dimension jumping and missing data. Numerical studies show that the proposed algorithm is highly scalable and much more efficient than traditional MCMC algorithms. The proposed algorithms have much alleviated the pain of Bayesian methods in big data computing.

Recent research has shown that learning poli-cies parametrized by large neural networks can achieve significant success on challenging reinforcement learning problems. However, when memory is limited, it is not always possible to store such models exactly for inference, and com-pressing the policy into a compact representation might be necessary. We propose a general framework for policy representation, which reduces this problem to finding a low-dimensional embedding of a given density function in a separable inner product space. Our framework allows us to de-rive strong theoretical guarantees, controlling the error of the reconstructed policies. Such guaran-tees are typically lacking in black-box models, but are very desirable in risk-sensitive tasks. Our experimental results suggest that the reconstructed policies can use less than 10%of the number of parameters in the original networks, while incurring almost no decrease in rewards.

We present the preliminary high-level design and features of DynamicPPL.jl, a modular library providing a lightning-fast infrastructure for probabilistic programming. Besides a computational performance that is often close to or better than Stan, DynamicPPL provides an intuitive DSL that allows the rapid development of complex dynamic probabilistic programs. Being entirely written in Julia, a high-level dynamic programming language for numerical computing, DynamicPPL inherits a rich set of features available through the Julia ecosystem. Since DynamicPPL is a modular, stand-alone library, any probabilistic programming system written in Julia, such as Turing.jl, can use DynamicPPL to specify models and trace their model parameters. The main features of DynamicPPL are: 1) a meta-programming based DSL for specifying dynamic models using an intuitive tilde-based notation; 2) a tracing data-structure for tracking RVs in dynamic probabilistic models; 3) a rich contextual dispatch system allowing tailored behaviour during model execution; and 4) a user-friendly syntax for probabilistic queries. Finally, we show in a variety of experiments that DynamicPPL, in combination with Turing.jl, achieves computational performance that is often close to or better than Stan.

A theory explaining how deep learning works is yet to be developed. Previous work suggests that deep learning performs a coarse graining, similar in spirit to the renormalization group (RG). This idea has been explored in the setting of a local (nearest neighbor interactions) Ising spin lattice. We extend the discussion to the setting of a long range spin lattice. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations determine both the critical temperature and scaling dimensions of the system. The model is used to train both a single RBM (restricted Boltzmann machine) network, as well as a stacked RBM network. Following earlier Ising model studies, the trained weights of a single layer RBM network define a flow of lattice models. In contrast to results for nearest neighbor Ising, the RBM flow for the long ranged model does not converge to the correct values for the spin and energy scaling dimension. Further, correlation functions between visible and hidden nodes exhibit key differences between the stacked RBM and RG flows. The stacked RBM flow appears to move towards low temperatures whereas the RG flow moves towards high temperature. This again differs from results obtained for nearest neighbor Ising.

Task oriented dialog agents provide a natural language interface for users to complete their goal. Dialog State Tracking (DST), which is often a core component of these systems, tracks the system's understanding of the user's goal throughout the conversation. To enable accurate multi-domain DST, the model needs to encode dependencies between past utterances and slot semantics and understand the dialog context, including long-range cross-domain references. We introduce a novel architecture for this task to encode the conversation history and slot semantics more robustly by using attention mechanisms at multiple granularities. In particular, we use cross-attention to model relationships between the context and slots at different semantic levels and self-attention to resolve cross-domain coreferences. In addition, our proposed architecture does not rely on knowing the domain ontologies beforehand and can also be used in a zero-shot setting for new domains or unseen slot values. Our model improves the joint goal accuracy by 5% (absolute) in the full-data setting and by up to 2% (absolute) in the zero-shot setting over the present state-of-the-art on the MultiWoZ 2.1 dataset.