Markov Models
TensorLog: A Probabilistic Database Implemented Using Deep-Learning Infrastructure
Cohen, William, Yang, Fan, Rivard Mazaitis, Kathryn
We present an implementation of a probabilistic first-order logic called TensorLog, in which classes of logical queries are compiled into differentiable functions in a neural-network infrastructure such as Tensorflow or Theano. This leads to a close integration of probabilistic logical reasoning with deep-learning infrastructure: in particular, it enables high-performance deep learning frameworks to be used for tuning the parameters of a probabilistic logic. The integration with these frameworks enables use of GPU-based parallel processors for inference and learning, making TensorLog the first highly parallellizable probabilistic logic. Experimental results show that TensorLog scales to problems involving hundreds of thousands of knowledge-base triples and tens of thousands of examples.
Generalized Bayesian Filtering via Sequential Monte Carlo
Boustati, Ayman, Akyildiz, รmer Deniz, Damoulas, Theodoros, Johansen, Adam
We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of generalized Bayesian inference (GBI) to define generalized filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference under model misspecification. In doing so, we arrive at principled procedures for robust inference against observation contamination through the $\beta$-divergence. Operationalizing the proposed framework is made possible via sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC). The standard particle methods, and their associated convergence results, are readily generalized to the new setting. We demonstrate our approach to object tracking and Gaussian process regression problems, and observe improved performance over standard filtering algorithms.
Discriminative Particle Filter Reinforcement Learning for Complex Partial Observations
Ma, Xiao, Karkus, Peter, Hsu, David, Lee, Wee Sun, Ye, Nan
Deep reinforcement learning is successful in decision making for sophisticated games, such as Atari, Go, etc. However, real-world decision making often requires reasoning with partial information extracted from complex visual observations. This paper presents Discriminative Particle Filter Reinforcement Learning (DPFRL), a new reinforcement learning framework for complex partial observations. DPFRL encodes a differentiable particle filter in the neural network policy for explicit reasoning with partial observations over time. The particle filter maintains a belief using learned discriminative update, which is trained end-to-end for decision making. We show that using the discriminative update instead of standard generative models results in significantly improved performance, especially for tasks with complex visual observations, because they circumvent the difficulty of modeling complex observations that are irrelevant to decision making. In addition, to extract features from the particle belief, we propose a new type of belief feature based on the moment generating function. DPFRL outperforms state-of-the-art POMDP RL models in Flickering Atari Games, an existing POMDP RL benchmark, and in Natural Flickering Atari Games, a new, more challenging POMDP RL benchmark introduced in this paper. Further, DPFRL performs well for visual navigation with real-world data in the Habitat environment.
Periodic Q-Learning
The use of target networks is a common practice in deep reinforcement learning for stabilizing the training; however, theoretical understanding of this technique is still limited. In this paper, we study the so-called periodic Q-learning algorithm (PQ-learning for short), which resembles the technique used in deep Q-learning for solving infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes (DMDP) in the tabular setting. PQ-learning maintains two separate Q-value estimates - the online estimate and target estimate. The online estimate follows the standard Q-learning update, while the target estimate is updated periodically. In contrast to the standard Q-learning, PQ-learning enjoys a simple finite time analysis and achieves better sample complexity for finding an epsilon-optimal policy. Our result provides a preliminary justification of the effectiveness of utilizing target estimates or networks in Q-learning algorithms.
Stochastic Gradient MCMC with Repulsive Forces
Gallego, Victor, Insua, David Rios
We propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. We show that SVGD combined with a noise term can be framed as a multiple chain SG-MCMC method. Instead of treating each parallel chain independently from others, our proposed algorithm implements a repulsive force between particles, avoiding collapse and facilitating a better exploration of the parameter space. We also show how the addition of this noise term is necessary to obtain a valid SG-MCMC sampler, a significant difference with SVGD. Experiments with both synthetic distributions and real datasets illustrate the benefits of the proposed scheme.
Data Freshness and Energy-Efficient UAV Navigation Optimization: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach
Abedin, Sarder Fakhrul, Munir, Md. Shirajum, Tran, Nguyen H., Han, Zhu, Hong, Choong Seon
In this paper, we design a navigation policy for multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) where mobile base stations (BSs) are deployed to improve the data freshness and connectivity to the Internet of Things (IoT) devices. First, we formulate an energy-efficient trajectory optimization problem in which the objective is to maximize the energy efficiency by optimizing the UAV-BS trajectory policy. We also incorporate different contextual information such as energy and age of information (AoI) constraints to ensure the data freshness at the ground BS. Second, we propose an agile deep reinforcement learning with experience replay model to solve the formulated problem concerning the contextual constraints for the UAV-BS navigation. Moreover, the proposed approach is well-suited for solving the problem, since the state space of the problem is extremely large and finding the best trajectory policy with useful contextual features is too complex for the UAV-BSs. By applying the proposed trained model, an effective real-time trajectory policy for the UAV-BSs captures the observable network states over time. Finally, the simulation results illustrate the proposed approach is 3.6% and 3.13% more energy efficient than those of the greedy and baseline deep Q Network (DQN) approaches.
Minimax-Optimal Off-Policy Evaluation with Linear Function Approximation
This paper studies the statistical theory of batch data reinforcement learning with function approximation. Consider the off-policy evaluation problem, which is to estimate the cumulative value of a new target policy from logged history generated by unknown behavioral policies. We study a regression-based fitted Q iteration method, and show that it is equivalent to a model-based method that estimates a conditional mean embedding of the transition operator. We prove that this method is information-theoretically optimal and has nearly minimal estimation error. In particular, by leveraging contraction property of Markov processes and martingale concentration, we establish a finite-sample instance-dependent error upper bound and a nearly-matching minimax lower bound. The policy evaluation error depends sharply on a restricted $\chi^2$-divergence over the function class between the long-term distribution of the target policy and the distribution of past data. This restricted $\chi^2$-divergence is both instance-dependent and function-class-dependent. It characterizes the statistical limit of off-policy evaluation. Further, we provide an easily computable confidence bound for the policy evaluator, which may be useful for optimistic planning and safe policy improvement.
Privately Learning Markov Random Fields
Zhang, Huanyu, Kamath, Gautam, Kulkarni, Janardhan, Wu, Zhiwei Steven
We consider the problem of learning Markov Random Fields (including the prototypical example, the Ising model) under the constraint of differential privacy. Our learning goals include both structure learning, where we try to estimate the underlying graph structure of the model, as well as the harder goal of parameter learning, in which we additionally estimate the parameter on each edge. We provide algorithms and lower bounds for both problems under a variety of privacy constraints -- namely pure, concentrated, and approximate differential privacy. While non-privately, both learning goals enjoy roughly the same complexity, we show that this is not the case under differential privacy. In particular, only structure learning under approximate differential privacy maintains the non-private logarithmic dependence on the dimensionality of the data, while a change in either the learning goal or the privacy notion would necessitate a polynomial dependence. As a result, we show that the privacy constraint imposes a strong separation between these two learning problems in the high-dimensional data regime.
Adaptive Covariate Acquisition for Minimizing Total Cost of Classification
Andrade, Daniel, Okajima, Yuzuru
In some applications, acquiring covariates comes at a cost which is not negligible. For example in the medical domain, in order to classify whether a patient has diabetes or not, measuring glucose tolerance can be expensive. Assuming that the cost of each covariate, and the cost of misclassification can be specified by the user, our goal is to minimize the (expected) total cost of classification, i.e. the cost of misclassification plus the cost of the acquired covariates. We formalize this optimization goal using the (conditional) Bayes risk and describe the optimal solution using a recursive procedure. Since the procedure is computationally infeasible, we consequently introduce two assumptions: (1) the optimal classifier can be represented by a generalized additive model, (2) the optimal sets of covariates are limited to a sequence of sets of increasing size. We show that under these two assumptions, a computationally efficient solution exists. Furthermore, on several medical datasets, we show that the proposed method achieves in most situations the lowest total costs when compared to various previous methods. Finally, we weaken the requirement on the user to specify all misclassification costs by allowing the user to specify the minimally acceptable recall (target recall). Our experiments confirm that the proposed method achieves the target recall while minimizing the false discovery rate and the covariate acquisition costs better than previous methods.
Safe Imitation Learning via Fast Bayesian Reward Inference from Preferences
Brown, Daniel S., Coleman, Russell, Srinivasan, Ravi, Niekum, Scott
Bayesian reward learning from demonstrations enables rigorous safety and uncertainty analysis when performing imitation learning. However, Bayesian reward learning methods are typically computationally intractable for complex control problems. We propose a highly efficient Bayesian reward learning algorithm that scales to high-dimensional imitation learning problems by first pre-training a low-dimensional feature encoding via self-supervised tasks and then leveraging preferences over demonstrations to perform fast Bayesian inference. We evaluate our proposed approach on the task of learning to play Atari games from demonstrations, without access to the game score. For Atari games our approach enables us to generate 100,000 samples from the posterior over reward functions in only 5 minutes using a personal laptop. Furthermore, our proposed approach achieves comparable or better imitation learning performance than state-of-the-art methods that only find a point estimate of the reward function. Finally, we show that our approach enables efficient high-confidence policy performance bounds. We show that these high-confidence performance bounds can be used to rank the performance and risk of a variety of evaluation policies, despite not having samples of the reward function. We also show evidence that high-confidence performance bounds can be used to detect reward hacking in complex imitation learning problems.