Framed in positive terms, this report examines how technical AI research might be steered in a manner that is more attentive to humanity's long-term prospects for survival as a species. In negative terms, we ask what existential risks humanity might face from AI development in the next century, and by what principles contemporary technical research might be directed to address those risks. A key property of hypothetical AI technologies is introduced, called \emph{prepotence}, which is useful for delineating a variety of potential existential risks from artificial intelligence, even as AI paradigms might shift. A set of \auxref{dirtot} contemporary research \directions are then examined for their potential benefit to existential safety. Each research direction is explained with a scenario-driven motivation, and examples of existing work from which to build. The research directions present their own risks and benefits to society that could occur at various scales of impact, and in particular are not guaranteed to benefit existential safety if major developments in them are deployed without adequate forethought and oversight. As such, each direction is accompanied by a consideration of potentially negative side effects.

Having been collected for its primary purpose in patient care, Observational Health Data (OHD) can further benefit patient well-being by sustaining the development of health informatics. However, the potential for secondary usage of OHD continues to be hampered by the fiercely private nature of patient-related data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have recently emerged as a groundbreaking approach to efficiently learn generative models that produce realistic Synthetic Data (SD). However, the application of GAN to OHD seems to have been lagging in comparison to other fields. We conducted a review of GAN algorithms for OHD in the published literature, and report our findings here.

This work examines the hypothesis that partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning with human driver internal states can significantly improve both safety and efficiency in autonomous freeway driving. We evaluate this hypothesis in a simulated scenario where an autonomous car must safely perform three lane changes in rapid succession. Approximate POMDP solutions are obtained through the partially observable Monte Carlo planning with observation widening (POMCPOW) algorithm. This approach outperforms over-confident and conservative MDP baselines and matches or outperforms QMDP. Relative to the MDP baselines, POMCPOW typically cuts the rate of unsafe situations in half or increases the success rate by 50%.

Penetration testing is a security exercise aimed at assessing the security of a system by simulating attacks against it. So far, penetration testing has been carried out mainly by trained human attackers and its success critically depended on the available expertise. Automating this practice constitutes a non-trivial problem, as the range of actions that a human expert may attempts against a system and the range of knowledge she relies on to take her decisions are hard to capture. In this paper, we focus our attention on simplified penetration testing problems expressed in the form of capture the flag hacking challenges, and we apply reinforcement learning algorithms to try to solve them. In modelling these capture the flag competitions as reinforcement learning problems we highlight the specific challenges that characterize penetration testing. We observe these challenges experimentally across a set of varied simulations, and we study how different reinforcement learning techniques may help us addressing these challenges. In this way we show the feasibility of tackling penetration testing using reinforcement learning, and we highlight the challenges that must be taken into consideration, and possible directions to solve them.

Recent procedural content generation via machine learning (PCGML) methods allow learning from existing content to produce similar content automatically. While these approaches are able to generate content for different games (e.g. Super Mario Bros., DOOM, Zelda, and Kid Icarus), it is an open questions how well these approaches can capture large-scale visual patterns such as symmetry. In this paper, we propose match-three games as a domain to test PCGML algorithms regarding their ability to generate suitable patterns. We demonstrate that popular algorithm such as Generative Adversarial Networks struggle in this domain and propose adaptations to improve their performance. In particular we augment the neighborhood of a Markov Random Fields approach to not only take local but also symmetric positional information into account. We conduct several empirical tests including a user study that show the improvements achieved by the proposed modifications, and obtain promising results.

Quantum computers can in principle solve certain problems exponentially more quickly than their classical counterparts. We have not yet reached the advent of useful quantum computation, but when we do, it will affect nearly all scientific disciplines. In this review, we examine how current quantum algorithms could revolutionize computational biology and bioinformatics. There are potential benefits across the entire field, from the ability to process vast amounts of information and run machine learning algorithms far more efficiently, to algorithms for quantum simulation that are poised to improve computational calculations in drug discovery, to quantum algorithms for optimization that may advance fields from protein structure prediction to network analysis. However, these exciting prospects are susceptible to "hype", and it is also important to recognize the caveats and challenges in this new technology. Our aim is to introduce the promise and limitations of emerging quantum computing technologies in the areas of computational molecular biology and bioinformatics.

Knowledge tracing (KT) models, e.g., the deep knowledge tracing (DKT) model, track an individual learner's acquisition of skills over time by examining the learner's performance on questions related to those skills. A practical limitation in most existing KT models is that all questions nested under a particular skill are treated as equivalent observations of a learner's ability, which is an inaccurate assumption in real-world educational scenarios. To overcome this limitation we introduce qDKT, a variant of DKT that models every learner's success probability on individual questions over time. First, qDKT incorporates graph Laplacian regularization to smooth predictions under each skill, which is particularly useful when the number of questions in the dataset is big. Second, qDKT uses an initialization scheme inspired by the fastText algorithm, which has found success in a variety of language modeling tasks. Our experiments on several real-world datasets show that qDKT achieves state-of-art performance on predicting learner outcomes. Because of this, qDKT can serve as a simple, yet tough-to-beat, baseline for new question-centric KT models.

Training deep reinforcement learning agents on environments with multiple levels / scenes / conditions from the same task, has become essential for many applications aiming to achieve generalization and domain transfer from simulation to the real world [1,2]. While such a strategy is helpful with generalization, the use of multiple scenes significantly increases the variance of samples collected for policy gradient computations. Current methods continue to view this collection of scenes as a single Markov Decision Process (MDP) with a common value function; however, we argue that it is better to treat the collection as a single environment with multiple underlying MDPs. To this end, we propose a dynamic value estimation (DVE) technique for these multiple-MDP environments, motivated by the clustering effect observed in the value function distribution across different scenes. The resulting agent is able to learn a more accurate and scene-specific value function estimate (and hence the advantage function), leading to a lower sample variance. Our proposed approach is simple to accommodate with several existing implementations (like PPO, A3C) and results in consistent improvements for a range of ProcGen environments and the AI2-THOR framework based visual navigation task.

We work on dynamic problems with collected data $\{\mathsf{x}_i\}$ that distributed on a manifold $\mathcal{M}\subset\mathbb{R}^p$. Through the diffusion map, we first learn the reaction coordinates $\{\mathsf{y}_i\}\subset \mathcal{N}$ where $\mathcal{N}$ is a manifold isometrically embedded into an Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^\ell$ for $\ell \ll p$. The reaction coordinates enable us to obtain an efficient approximation for the dynamics described by a Fokker-Planck equation on the manifold $\mathcal{N}$. By using the reaction coordinates, we propose an implementable, unconditionally stable, data-driven upwind scheme which automatically incorporates the manifold structure of $\mathcal{N}$. Furthermore, we provide a weighted $L^2$ convergence analysis of the upwind scheme to the Fokker-Planck equation. The proposed upwind scheme leads to a Markov chain with transition probability between the nearest neighbor points. We can benefit from such property to directly conduct manifold-related computations such as finding the optimal coarse-grained network and the minimal energy path that represents chemical reactions or conformational changes. To establish the Fokker-Planck equation, we need to acquire information about the equilibrium potential of the physical system on $\mathcal{N}$. Hence, we apply a Gaussian Process regression algorithm to generate equilibrium potential for a new physical system with new parameters. Combining with the proposed upwind scheme, we can calculate the trajectory of the Fokker-Planck equation on $\mathcal{N}$ based on the generated equilibrium potential. Finally, we develop an algorithm to pullback the trajectory to the original high dimensional space as a generative data for the new physical system.

Learning a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is hard when the number of parameters is too large given the amount of available data. As a remedy, we propose restricting the GMM to a Gaussian Markov Random Field Mixture Model (GMRF-MM), as well as a new method for estimating the latter's sparse precision (i.e., inverse covariance) matrices. When the sparsity pattern of each matrix is known, we propose an efficient optimization method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of that matrix. When it is unknown, we utilize the popular Graphical LASSO (GLASSO) to estimate that pattern. However, we show that even for a single Gaussian, when GLASSO is tuned to successfully estimate the sparsity pattern, it does so at the price of a substantial bias of the values of the nonzero entries of the matrix, and we show that this problem only worsens in a mixture setting. To overcome this, we discard the non-zero values estimated by GLASSO, keep only its pattern estimate and use it within the proposed MLE method. This yields an effective two-step procedure that removes the bias. We show that our "debiasing" approach outperforms GLASSO in both the single-GMRF and the GMRF-MM cases. We also show that when learning priors for image patches, our method outperforms GLASSO even if we merely use an educated guess about the sparsity pattern, and that our GMRF-MM outperforms the baseline GMM on real and synthetic high-dimensional datasets. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/shahaffind/GMRF-MM}.