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 Markov Models


Provably Efficient Causal Reinforcement Learning with Confounded Observational Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Empowered by expressive function approximators such as neural networks, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) achieves tremendous empirical successes. However, learning expressive function approximators requires collecting a large dataset (interventional data) by interacting with the environment. Such a lack of sample efficiency prohibits the application of DRL to critical scenarios, e.g., autonomous driving and personalized medicine, since trial and error in the online setting is often unsafe and even unethical. In this paper, we study how to incorporate the dataset (observational data) collected offline, which is often abundantly available in practice, to improve the sample efficiency in the online setting. To incorporate the possibly confounded observational data, we propose the deconfounded optimistic value iteration (DOVI) algorithm, which incorporates the confounded observational data in a provably efficient manner. More specifically, DOVI explicitly adjusts for the confounding bias in the observational data, where the confounders are partially observed or unobserved. In both cases, such adjustments allow us to construct the bonus based on a notion of information gain, which takes into account the amount of information acquired from the offline setting. In particular, we prove that the regret of DOVI is smaller than the optimal regret achievable in the pure online setting by a multiplicative factor, which decreases towards zero when the confounded observational data are more informative upon the adjustments. Our algorithm and analysis serve as a step towards causal reinforcement learning.


Hidden Markov Nonlinear ICA: Unsupervised Learning from Nonstationary Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) provide a principled framework for unsupervised feature learning and disentanglement. The central idea in such works is that the latent components are assumed to be independent conditional on some observed auxiliary variables, such as the time-segment index. This requires manual segmentation of data into non-stationary segments which is computationally expensive, inaccurate and often impossible. These models are thus not fully unsupervised. We remedy these limitations by combining nonlinear ICA with a Hidden Markov Model, resulting in a model where a latent state acts in place of the observed segment-index. We prove identifiability of the proposed model for a general mixing nonlinearity, such as a neural network. We also show how maximum likelihood estimation of the model can be done using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Thus, we achieve a new nonlinear ICA framework which is unsupervised, more efficient, as well as able to model underlying temporal dynamics.


Emergent cooperation through mutual information maximization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With artificial intelligence systems becoming ubiquitous in our society, its designers will soon have to start to consider its social dimension, as many of these systems will have to interact among them to work efficiently. With this in mind, we propose a decentralized deep reinforcement learning algorithm for the design of cooperative multi-agent systems. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis that highly correlated actions are a feature of cooperative systems, and hence, we propose the insertion of an auxiliary objective of maximization of the mutual information between the actions of agents in the learning problem. Our system is applied to a social dilemma, a problem whose optimal solution requires that agents cooperate to maximize a macroscopic performance function despite the divergent individual objectives of each agent. By comparing the performance of the proposed system to a system without the auxiliary objective, we conclude that the maximization of mutual information among agents promotes the emergence of cooperation in social dilemmas.


On Optimism in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is prevalent throughout sequential decision making problems such as multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning (RL), often coming with strong theoretical guarantees. However, it remains a challenge to scale these approaches to the deep RL paradigm, which has achieved a great deal of attention in recent years. In this paper, we introduce a tractable approach to optimism via noise augmented Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), which we show can obtain a competitive regret bound: $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}( |\mathcal{S}|H\sqrt{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}| T } )$ when augmenting using Gaussian noise, where $T$ is the total number of environment steps. This tractability allows us to apply our approach to the deep RL setting, where we rigorously evaluate the key factors for success of optimistic model-based RL algorithms, bridging the gap between theory and practice.


Identifying Cognitive Radars -- Inverse Reinforcement Learning using Revealed Preferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider an inverse reinforcement learning problem involving us versus an enemy radar equipped with a Bayesian tracker. By observing the emissions of the enemy radar,how can we identify if the radar is cognitive (constrained utility maximizer)? Given the observed sequence of actions taken by the enemy's radar, we consider three problems: (i) Are the enemy radar's actions (waveform choice, beam scheduling) consistent with constrained utility maximization? If so how can we estimate the cognitive radar's utility function that is consistent with its actions. We formulate and solve the problem in terms of the spectra (eigenvalues) of the state and observation noise covariance matrices, and the algebraic Riccati equation. (ii) How to construct a statistical test for detecting a cognitive radar (constrained utility maximization) when we observe the radar's actions in noise or the radar observes our probe signal in noise? We propose a statistical detector with a tight Type-II error bound. (iii) How can we optimally probe (interrogate) the enemy's radar by choosing our state to minimize the Type-II error of detecting if the radar is deploying an economic rational strategy, subject to a constraint on the Type-I detection error? We present a stochastic optimization algorithm to optimize our probe signal. The main analysis framework used in this paper is that of revealed preferences from microeconomics.


Langevin Dynamics for Inverse Reinforcement Learning of Stochastic Gradient Algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to estimate the reward function of optimizing agents by observing their response (estimates or actions). This paper considers IRL when noisy estimates of the gradient of a reward function generated by multiple stochastic gradient agents are observed. We present a generalized Langevin dynamics algorithm to estimate the reward function $R(\theta)$; specifically, the resulting Langevin algorithm asymptotically generates samples from the distribution proportional to $\exp(R(\theta))$. The proposed IRL algorithms use kernel-based passive learning schemes. We also construct multi-kernel passive Langevin algorithms for IRL which are suitable for high dimensional data. The performance of the proposed IRL algorithms are illustrated on examples in adaptive Bayesian learning, logistic regression (high dimensional problem) and constrained Markov decision processes. We prove weak convergence of the proposed IRL algorithms using martingale averaging methods. We also analyze the tracking performance of the IRL algorithms in non-stationary environments where the utility function $R(\theta)$ jump changes over time as a slow Markov chain.


Deep Reinforcement Learning amidst Lifelong Non-Stationarity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As humans, our goals and our environment are persistently changing throughout our lifetime based on our experiences, actions, and internal and external drives. In contrast, typical reinforcement learning problem set-ups consider decision processes that are stationary across episodes. Can we develop reinforcement learning algorithms that can cope with the persistent change in the former, more realistic problem settings? While on-policy algorithms such as policy gradients in principle can be extended to non-stationary settings, the same cannot be said for more efficient off-policy algorithms that replay past experiences when learning. In this work, we formalize this problem setting, and draw upon ideas from the online learning and probabilistic inference literature to derive an off-policy RL algorithm that can reason about and tackle such lifelong non-stationarity. Our method leverages latent variable models to learn a representation of the environment from current and past experiences, and performs off-policy RL with this representation. We further introduce several simulation environments that exhibit lifelong non-stationarity, and empirically find that our approach substantially outperforms approaches that do not reason about environment shift.


Distributed Value Function Approximation for Collaborative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we propose novel distributed gradient-based temporal difference algorithms for multi-agent off-policy learning of linear approximation of the value function in Markov decision processes. The algorithms are composed of: 1) local parameter updates based on the single-agent off-policy gradient temporal difference learning algorithms, including eligibility traces with state dependent parameters, and 2) linear dynamic consensus scheme over the underlying, typically sparsely connected, inter-agent communication network. The proposed algorithms differ in the way of how the time-scales are selected, how local recursions are performed and how consensus iterations are incorporated. The algorithms are completely decentralized, allowing applications in which all the agents may have completely different behavior policies while evaluating a single target policy. In this sense, the algorithms may be considered as a tool for either parallelization or multi-agent collaborative learning under given constraints. We provide weak convergence results, taking rigorously into account properties of the underlying Feller-Markov processes. We prove that, under nonrestrictive assumptions on the time-varying network topology and the individual state-visiting distributions of the agents, the parameter estimates of the algorithms weakly converge to a consensus point. The variance reduction effect of the proposed algorithms is demonstrated by analyzing a limiting stochastic differential equation. Specific guidelines for network design, providing the desired convergence points, are given. The algorithms' properties are illustrated by characteristic simulation results.


Artificial Musical Intelligence: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computers have been used to analyze and create music since they were first introduced in the 1950s and 1960s. Beginning in the late 1990s, the rise of the Internet and large scale platforms for music recommendation and retrieval have made music an increasingly prevalent domain of machine learning and artificial intelligence research. While still nascent, several different approaches have been employed to tackle what may broadly be referred to as "musical intelligence." This article provides a definition of musical intelligence, introduces a taxonomy of its constituent components, and surveys the wide range of AI methods that can be, and have been, brought to bear in its pursuit, with a particular emphasis on machine learning methods.


Reinforcement Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Tactical Decision-Making in Intersections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates how a Bayesian reinforcement learning method can be used to create a tactical decision-making agent for autonomous driving in an intersection scenario, where the agent can estimate the confidence of its recommended actions. An ensemble of neural networks, with additional randomized prior functions (RPF), are trained by using a bootstrapped experience replay memory. The coefficient of variation in the estimated $Q$-values of the ensemble members is used to approximate the uncertainty, and a criterion that determines if the agent is sufficiently confident to make a particular decision is introduced. The performance of the ensemble RPF method is evaluated in an intersection scenario, and compared to a standard Deep Q-Network method. It is shown that the trained ensemble RPF agent can detect cases with high uncertainty, both in situations that are far from the training distribution, and in situations that seldom occur within the training distribution. In this study, the uncertainty information is used to choose safe actions in unknown situations, which removes all collisions from within the training distribution, and most collisions outside of the distribution.