The Apperception Engine is an unsupervised learning system. Given a sequence of sensory inputs, it constructs a symbolic causal theory that both explains the sensory sequence and also satisfies a set of unity conditions. The unity conditions insist that the constituents of the theory - objects, properties, and laws - must be integrated into a coherent whole. Once a theory has been constructed, it can be applied to predict future sensor readings, retrodict earlier readings, or impute missing readings. In this paper, we evaluate the Apperception Engine in a diverse variety of domains, including cellular automata, rhythms and simple nursery tunes, multi-modal binding problems, occlusion tasks, and sequence induction intelligence tests. In each domain, we test our engine's ability to predict future sensor values, retrodict earlier sensor values, and impute missing sensory data. The engine performs well in all these domains, significantly outperforming neural net baselines and state of the art inductive logic programming systems. These results are significant because neural nets typically struggle to solve the binding problem (where information from different modalities must somehow be combined together into different aspects of one unified object) and fail to solve occlusion tasks (in which objects are sometimes visible and sometimes obscured from view). We note in particular that in the sequence induction intelligence tests, our system achieved human-level performance. This is notable because our system is not a bespoke system designed specifically to solve intelligence tests, but a general-purpose system that was designed to make sense of any sensory sequence.

Smart FinTech has emerged as a new area that synthesizes and transforms AI and finance, and broadly data science, machine learning, economics, etc. Smart FinTech also transforms and drives new economic and financial businesses, services and systems, and plays an increasingly important role in economy, technology and society transformation. This article presents a highly summarized research overview of smart FinTech, including FinTech businesses and challenges, various FinTech-associated data and repositories, FinTech-driven business decision and optimization, areas in smart FinTech, and research methods and techniques for smart FinTech.

In this work, we propose KeRNS: an algorithm for episodic reinforcement learning in non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose state-action set is endowed with a metric. Using a non-parametric model of the MDP built with time-dependent kernels, we prove a regret bound that scales with the covering dimension of the state-action space and the total variation of the MDP with time, which quantifies its level of non-stationarity. Our method generalizes previous approaches based on sliding windows and exponential discounting used to handle changing environments. We further propose a practical implementation of KeRNS, we analyze its regret and validate it experimentally.

This article explores the use of machine learning models to build a market generator. The underlying idea is to simulate artificial multi-dimensional financial time series, whose statistical properties are the same as those observed in the financial markets. In particular, these synthetic data must preserve the probability distribution of asset returns, the stochastic dependence between the different assets and the autocorrelation across time. The article proposes then a new approach for estimating the probability distribution of backtest statistics. The final objective is to develop a framework for improving the risk management of quantitative investment strategies, in particular in the space of smart beta, factor investing and alternative risk premia.

Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) with low-precision synapses are much appealing with high energy efficiency. However, training RBMs with binary synapses is challenging due to the discrete nature of synapses. Recently Huang proposed one efficient method to train RBMs with binary synapses by using a combination of gradient ascent and the message passing algorithm under the variational inference framework. However, additional heuristic clipping operation is needed. In this technical note, inspired from Huang's work , we propose one alternative optimization method using the Bayesian learning rule, which is one natural gradient variational inference method. As opposed to Huang's method, we update the natural parameters of the variational symmetric Bernoulli distribution rather than the expectation parameters. Since the natural parameters take values in the entire real domain, no additional clipping is needed. Interestingly, the algorithm in \cite{huang2019data} could be viewed as one first-order approximation of the proposed algorithm, which justifies its efficacy with heuristic clipping.

Deep reinforcement learning has been successfully applied to many control tasks, but the application of such controllers in safetycritical scenarios has been limited due to safety concerns. Rigorous testing of these controllers is challenging, particularly when they operate in probabilistic environments due to, for example, hardware faults or noisy sensors. We propose MOSAIC, an algorithm for measuring the safety of deep reinforcement learning controllers in stochastic settings. Our approach is based on the iterative construction of a formal abstraction of a controller's execution in an environment, and leverages probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes to produce probabilistic guarantees on safe behaviour over a finite time horizon. It produces bounds on the probability of safe operation of the controller for different initial configurations and identifies regions where correct behaviour can be guaranteed. We implement and evaluate our approach on controllers trained for several benchmark control problems.

Ideal point estimation and dimensionality reduction have long been utilized to simplify and cluster complex, high-dimensional political data (e.g., roll-call votes and surveys) for use in analysis and visualization. These methods often work by finding the directions or principal components (PCs) on which either the data varies the most or respondents make the fewest decision errors. However, these PCs, which usually reflect the left-right political spectrum, are sometimes uninformative in explaining significant differences in the distribution of the data (e.g., how to categorize a set of highly-moderate voters). To tackle this issue, we adopt an emerging analysis approach, called contrastive learning. Contrastive learning-e.g., contrastive principal component analysis (cPCA)-works by first splitting the data by predefined groups, and then deriving PCs on which the target group varies the most but the background group varies the least. As a result, cPCA can often find `hidden' patterns, such as subgroups within the target group, which PCA cannot reveal when some variables are the dominant source of variations across the groups. We contribute to the field of contrastive learning by extending it to multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to enable an analysis of data often encountered by social scientists---namely binary, ordinal, and nominal variables. We demonstrate the utility of contrastive MCA (cMCA) by analyzing three different surveys: The 2015 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2012 UTokyo-Asahi Elite Survey, and 2018 European Social Survey. Our results suggest that, first, for the cases when ordinary MCA depicts differences between groups, cMCA can further identify characteristics that divide the target group; second, for the cases when MCA does not show clear differences, cMCA can successfully identify meaningful directions and subgroups, which traditional methods overlook.

This paper introduces the {\it particle swarm algorithm}, a recursive and embarrassingly parallel algorithm that targets an approximation to the sequence of posterior predictive distributions by averaging expectation approximations from many particle filters. A law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are provided, as well as an numerical study of simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

Extracting the rules of real-world biological multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. Biological agents generally have limited observation and mechanical constraints; however, most of the conventional data-driven models ignore such assumptions, resulting in lack of biological plausibility and model interpretability for behavioral analyses in biological and cognitive science. Here we propose sequential generative models with partial observation and mechanical constraints, which can visualize whose information the agents utilize and can generate biologically plausible actions. We formulate this as a decentralized multi-agent imitation learning problem, leveraging binary partial observation models with a Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization and policy models based on hierarchical variational recurrent neural networks with physical and biomechanical constraints. We investigate the empirical performances using real-world multi-person motion datasets from basketball and soccer games.

Want to be a part of an elite team where our innovative technical solutions are delivered to customers that advance the state of the art while addressing long-term problems of importance to national security? At our Leidos' Multi-Spectrum Warfare Research and Analytics Systems (MSWRAS) Division, an organization in the Leidos Innovation Center (LInC), we are looking for you, our next Scientist who specializes in remote sensing data analytics. Join our team of Ph.D. level peers in designing and developing advanced technology-based solutions for contract research and development projects working in our Arlington, VA office. Fun roles you will have in this job: Describe instances of successful, proven, and demonstrable experience contributing to the technical work as part of cross-discipline teams in the development and integration of software-based solutions for competitive, contract-based applied research programs Work with teams composed of members from industry, small businesses, and academic-based researchers and should have experience working on projects focused on multiple technical fields such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, engineering, and software development and integration Describe how the work products to which they contributed had solved customers' problems in such domains as energy, health, and national security or in the commercial sector Work within the MSWRAS Division and across the LInC, performing basic and applied contract research and development projects both leading and working under the guidance of senior scientists and engineers. Processing, interpreting and analyzing large volumes of data collected by remote sensing platforms but may also include other types of phenomenological data such as field measurements, or weather data Independently design and undertake new research as well as partner in a team environment across organizations Contribute to the development of creative and innovative R&D approaches to solving major remote sensing analytics challenges and work with potential sponsors (customers or internal champions) to secure funding for new research efforts based on those topics Contribute to the productivity of teams composed of fellow researchers, data scientists, data engineers, and software engineers to execute complex R&D programs Under the guidance of a senior scientist or engineer, design and develop or integrate secure and scalable applications that are part of broader solutions, that are applicable across multiple domains.