We propose a novel sequence prediction method for sequential data capturing node traversals in graphs. Our method builds on a statistical modelling framework that combines multiple higher-order network models into a single multi-order model. We develop a technique to fit such multi-order models in empirical sequential data and to select the optimal maximum order. Our framework facilitates both next-element and full sequence prediction given a sequence-prefix of any length. We evaluate our model based on six empirical data sets containing sequences from website navigation as well as public transport systems. The results show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element prediction. We further demonstrate the accuracy of our method during out-of-sample sequence prediction and validate that our method can scale to data sets with millions of sequences.

Large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) require planning algorithms with runtime independent of the number of states of the MDP. We consider the planning problem in MDPs using linear value function approximation with only weak requirements: low approximation error for the optimal value function, and a small set of "core" states whose features span those of other states. In particular, we make no assumptions about the representability of policies or value functions of non-optimal policies. Our algorithm produces almost-optimal actions for any state using a generative oracle (simulator) for the MDP, while its computation time scales polynomially with the number of features, core states, and actions and the effective horizon.

Edit: If you want to see MarkovComposer in action, but you don't want to mess with Java code, you can access a web version of it here. In the following article, I'll present some of the research I've been working on lately. Algorithms, or algorithmic composition, have been used to compose music for centuries. For example, Western punctus contra punctum can be sometimes reduced to algorithmic determinacy. Then, why not use fast-learning computers capable of billions of calculations per second to do what they do best, to follow algorithms?

As the applications of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in wireless communications grow, sensitivity of DRL based wireless communication strategies against adversarial attacks has started to draw increasing attention. In order to address such sensitivity and alleviate the resulting security concerns, we in this paper consider a victim user that performs DRL-based dynamic channel access, and an attacker that executes DRLbased jamming attacks to disrupt the victim. Hence, both the victim and attacker are DRL agents and can interact with each other, retrain their models, and adapt to opponents' policies. In this setting, we initially develop an adversarial jamming attack policy that aims at minimizing the accuracy of victim's decision making on dynamic channel access. Subsequently, we devise defense strategies against such an attacker, and propose three defense strategies, namely diversified defense with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control, diversified defense with an imitation attacker, and defense via orthogonal policies. We design these strategies to maximize the attacked victim's accuracy and evaluate their performances.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is appealing because (i) it enables planning and thus more strategic exploration, and (ii) by decoupling dynamics from rewards, it enables fast transfer to new reward functions. However, learning an accurate Markov Decision Process (MDP) over high-dimensional states (e.g., raw pixels) is extremely challenging because it requires function approximation, which leads to compounding errors. Instead, to avoid compounding errors, we propose learning an abstract MDP over abstract states: low-dimensional coarse representations of the state (e.g., capturing agent position, ignoring other objects). We assume access to an abstraction function that maps the concrete states to abstract states. In our approach, we construct an abstract MDP, which grows through strategic exploration via planning. Similar to hierarchical RL approaches, the abstract actions of the abstract MDP are backed by learned subpolicies that navigate between abstract states. Our approach achieves strong results on three of the hardest Arcade Learning Environment games (Montezuma's Revenge, Pitfall!, and Private Eye), including superhuman performance on Pitfall! without demonstrations. After training on one task, we can reuse the learned abstract MDP for new reward functions, achieving higher reward in 1000x fewer samples than model-free methods trained from scratch.

This paper serves as an introduction and overview of the potentially useful models and methodologies from artificial intelligence (AI) into the field of transportation engineering for autonomous vehicle (AV) control in the era of mixed autonomy. We will discuss state-of-the-art applications of AI-guided methods, identify opportunities and obstacles, raise open questions, and help suggest the building blocks and areas where AI could play a role in mixed autonomy. We divide the stage of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment into four phases: the pure HVs, the HV-dominated, the AVdominated, and the pure AVs. This paper is primarily focused on the latter three phases. It is the first-of-its-kind survey paper to comprehensively review literature in both transportation engineering and AI for mixed traffic modeling. Models used for each phase are summarized, encompassing game theory, deep (reinforcement) learning, and imitation learning. While reviewing the methodologies, we primarily focus on the following research questions: (1) What scalable driving policies are to control a large number of AVs in mixed traffic comprised of human drivers and uncontrollable AVs? (2) How do we estimate human driver behaviors? (3) How should the driving behavior of uncontrollable AVs be modeled in the environment? (4) How are the interactions between human drivers and autonomous vehicles characterized? Hopefully this paper will not only inspire our transportation community to rethink the conventional models that are developed in the data-shortage era, but also reach out to other disciplines, in particular robotics and machine learning, to join forces towards creating a safe and efficient mixed traffic ecosystem.

We consider the problem of exploration-exploitation in communicating Markov Decision Processes. We provide an analysis of UCRL2 with Empirical Bernstein inequalities (UCRL2B). For any MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions, $\Gamma \leq S$ next states and diameter $D$, the regret of UCRL2B is bounded as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{D\Gamma S A T})$.

Diagnosing diseases such as leukemia or anemia requires reliable counts of blood cells. Hematologists usually label and count microscopy images of blood cells manually. In many cases, however, cells in different maturity states are difficult to distinguish, and in combination with image noise and subjectivity, humans are prone to make labeling mistakes. This results in labels that are often not reproducible, which can directly affect the diagnoses. We introduce TIMELY, a probabilistic model that combines pseudotime inference methods with inhomogeneous hidden Markov trees, which addresses this challenge of label inconsistency. We show first on simulation data that TIMELY is able to identify and correct wrong labels with higher precision and recall than baseline methods for labeling correction. We then apply our method to two real-world datasets of blood cell data and show that TIMELY successfully finds inconsistent labels, thereby improving the quality of human-generated labels.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) possess many positive qualities when it comes to spatial raster data. Translation invariance enables CNNs to detect features regardless of their position in the scene. However, in some domains, like geospatial, not all locations are exactly equal. In this work, we propose localized convolutional neural networks that enable convolutional architectures to learn local features in addition to the global ones. We investigate their instantiations in the form of learnable inputs, local weights, and a more general form. They can be added to any convolutional layers, easily end-to-end trained, introduce minimal additional complexity, and let CNNs retain most of their benefits to the extent that they are needed. In this work we address spatio-temporal prediction: test the effectiveness of our methods on a synthetic benchmark dataset and tackle three real-world wind prediction datasets. For one of them, we propose a method to spatially order the unordered data. We compare the recent state-of-the-art spatio-temporal prediction models on the same data. Models that use convolutional layers can be and are extended with our localizations. In all these cases our extensions improve the results, and thus often the state-of-the-art. We share all the code at a public repository.

We train an agent to navigate in 3D environments using a hierarchical strategy including a high-level graph based planner and a local policy. Our main contribution is a data driven learning based approach for planning under uncertainty in topological maps, requiring an estimate of shortest paths in valued graphs with a probabilistic structure. Whereas classical symbolic algorithms achieve optimal results on noise-less topologies, or optimal results in a probabilistic sense on graphs with probabilistic structure, we aim to show that machine learning can overcome missing information in the graph by taking into account rich high-dimensional node features, for instance visual information available at each location of the map. Compared to purely learned neural white box algorithms, we structure our neural model with an inductive bias for dynamic programming based shortest path algorithms, and we show that a particular parameterization of our neural model corresponds to the Bellman-Ford algorithm. By performing an empirical analysis of our method in simulated photo-realistic 3D environments, we demonstrate that the inclusion of visual features in the learned neural planner outperforms classical symbolic solutions for graph based planning.