Events are occurrences in specific locations, time, and semantics that nontrivially impact either our society or the nature, such as civil unrest, system failures, and epidemics. It is highly desirable to be able to anticipate the occurrence of such events in advance in order to reduce the potential social upheaval and damage caused. Event prediction, which has traditionally been prohibitively challenging, is now becoming a viable option in the big data era and is thus experiencing rapid growth. There is a large amount of existing work that focuses on addressing the challenges involved, including heterogeneous multi-faceted outputs, complex dependencies, and streaming data feeds. Most existing event prediction methods were initially designed to deal with specific application domains, though the techniques and evaluation procedures utilized are usually generalizable across different domains. However, it is imperative yet difficult to cross-reference the techniques across different domains, given the absence of a comprehensive literature survey for event prediction. This paper aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive survey of the technologies, applications, and evaluations of event prediction in the big data era. First, systematic categorization and summary of existing techniques are presented, which facilitate domain experts' searches for suitable techniques and help model developers consolidate their research at the frontiers. Then, comprehensive categorization and summary of major application domains are provided. Evaluation metrics and procedures are summarized and standardized to unify the understanding of model performance among stakeholders, model developers, and domain experts in various application domains. Finally, open problems and future directions for this promising and important domain are elucidated and discussed.

This paper introduces an algorithm for discovering implicit and delayed causal relations between events observed by a robot at arbitrary times, with the objective of improving data-efficiency and interpretability of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) techniques. The proposed algorithm initially predicts observations with the Markov assumption, and incrementally introduces new hidden variables to explain and reduce the stochasticity of the observations. The hidden variables are memory units that keep track of pertinent past events. Such events are systematically identified by their information gains. The learned transition and reward models are then used for planning. Experiments on simulated and real robotic tasks show that this method significantly improves over current RL techniques.

Common experience suggests that agents who know each other well are better able to work together. In this work, we address the problem of calibrating intention and capabilities in human-robot collaboration. In particular, we focus on scenarios where the robot is attempting to assist a human who is unable to directly communicate her intent. Moreover, both agents may have differing capabilities that are unknown to one another. We adopt a decision-theoretic approach and propose the TICC-POMDP for modeling this setting, with an associated online solver. Experiments show our approach leads to better team performance both in simulation and in a real-world study with human subjects.

We present a review and taxonomy of 200 models from the literature on driver behavior modeling. We begin by introducing a mathematical formulation based on the partially observable stochastic game, which serves as a common framework for comparing and contrasting different driver models. Our taxonomy is constructed around the core modeling tasks of state estimation, intention estimation, trait estimation, and motion prediction, and also discusses the auxiliary tasks of risk estimation, anomaly detection, behavior imitation and microscopic traffic simulation. Existing driver models are categorized based on the specific tasks they address and key attributes of their approach.

In this paper, we propose the Adaptive Physics-Informed Neural Networks (APINNs) for accurate and efficient simulation-free Bayesian parameter estimation via Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We specifically focus on a class of parameter estimation problems for which computing the likelihood function requires solving a PDE. The proposed method consists of: (1) constructing an offline PINN-UQ model as an approximation to the forward model; and (2) refining this approximate model on the fly using samples generated from the MCMC sampler. The proposed APINN method constantly refines this approximate model on the fly and guarantees that the approximation error is always less than a user-defined residual error threshold. We numerically demonstrate the performance of the proposed APINN method in solving a parameter estimation problem for a system governed by the Poisson equation.

It is applied to knowledge discovery via dimension reducing and clustering in many fields. However, its generalization error had not been yet clarified since it is a singular statistical model where there is no one to one map from parameters to probability distributions. In this paper, we give the exact asymptotic form of its generalization error and marginal likelihood, by theoretical analysis of its learning coefficient using algebraic geometry. The theoretical result shows that the Bayesian generalization error in LDA is expressed in terms of that in matrix factorization and a penalty from the simplex restriction of LDA's parameter region.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is becoming a prevalent and powerful methodology to address the artificial intelligent problems. Owing to its tremendous potentials in self-learning and self-improvement, DRL is broadly serviced in many research fields. This article conducted a comprehensive comparison of multiple DRL approaches on the freeway decision-making problem for autonomous vehicles. These techniques include the common deep Q learning (DQL), double DQL (DDQL), dueling DQL, and prioritized replay DQL. First, the reinforcement learning (RL) framework is introduced. As an extension, the implementations of the above mentioned DRL methods are established mathematically. Then, the freeway driving scenario for the automated vehicles is constructed, wherein the decision-making problem is transferred as a control optimization problem. Finally, a series of simulation experiments are achieved to evaluate the control performance of these DRL-enabled decision-making strategies. A comparative analysis is realized to connect the autonomous driving results with the learning characteristics of these DRL techniques.

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Dynamic discrete choice models are used to estimate the intertemporal preferences of an agent as described by a reward function based upon observable histories of states and implemented actions. However, in many applications, such as reliability and healthcare, the system state is partially observable or hidden (e.g., the level of deterioration of an engine, the condition of a disease), and the decision maker only has access to information imperfectly correlated with the true value of the hidden state. In this paper, we consider the estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model with state variables and system dynamics that are hidden (or partially observed) to both the agent and the modeler, thus generalizing Rust's model to partially observable cases. We analyze the structural properties of the model and prove that this model is still identifiable if the cardinality of the state space, the discount factor, the distribution of random shocks, and the rewards for a given (reference) action are given. We analyze both theoretically and numerically the potential mis-specification errors that may be incurred when Rust's model is improperly used in partially observable settings. We further apply the developed model to a subset of Rust's dataset for bus engine mileage and replacement decisions. The results show that our model can improve model fit as measured by the $\log$-likelihood function by $17.7\%$ and the $\log$-likelihood ratio test shows that our model statistically outperforms Rust's model. Interestingly, our hidden state model also reveals an economically meaningful route assignment behavior in the dataset which was hitherto ignored, i.e. routes with lower mileage are assigned to buses believed to be in worse condition.

You want to know and to learn one of the top 10 most influencial algorithms of the 20th century? Then you are right in this course. We will cover many powerful techniques from the field of probabilistic programming. This field is fast-growing, because these technique are getting more and more famous and proof to be efficient and reliable. We will cover all major fields of Probabilistic Programming: Distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Gaussian Mixture Models, Bayesian Linear Regression, Bayesian Logistic Regression, and hidden Markov models.