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 Markov Models


Multi-Agent Safe Planning with Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent safe systems have become an increasingly important area of study as we can now easily have multiple AI-powered systems operating together. In such settings, we need to ensure the safety of not only each individual agent, but also the overall system. In this paper, we introduce a novel multi-agent safe learning algorithm that enables decentralized safe navigation when there are multiple different agents in the environment. This algorithm makes mild assumptions about other agents and is trained in a decentralized fashion, i.e. with very little prior knowledge about other agents' policies. Experiments show our algorithm performs well with the robots running other algorithms when optimizing various objectives.


Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes with Combined Metrics of Mean and Variance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the optimization problem of an infinite stage discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a long-run average metric considering both mean and variance of rewards together. Such performance metric is important since the mean indicates average returns and the variance indicates risk or fairness. However, the variance metric couples the rewards at all stages, the traditional dynamic programming is inapplicable as the principle of time consistency fails. We study this problem from a new perspective called the sensitivity-based optimization theory. A performance difference formula is derived and it can quantify the difference of the mean-variance combined metrics of MDPs under any two different policies. The difference formula can be utilized to generate new policies with strictly improved mean-variance performance. A necessary condition of the optimal policy and the optimality of deterministic policies are derived. We further develop an iterative algorithm with a form of policy iteration, which is proved to converge to local optima both in the mixed and randomized policy space. Specially, when the mean reward is constant in policies, the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the global optimum. Finally, we apply our approach to study the fluctuation reduction of wind power in an energy storage system, which demonstrates the potential applicability of our optimization method.


Comparative Analysis of the Hidden Markov Model and LSTM: A Simulative Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series and sequential data have gained significant attention recently since many real-world processes in various domains such as finance, education, biology, and engineering can be modeled as time series. Although many algorithms and methods such as the Kalman filter, hidden Markov model, and long short term memory (LSTM) are proposed to make inferences and predictions for the data, their usage significantly depends on the application, type of the problem, available data, and sufficient accuracy or loss. In this paper, we compare the supervised and unsupervised hidden Markov model to LSTM in terms of the amount of data needed for training, complexity, and forecasting accuracy. Moreover, we propose various techniques to discretize the observations and convert the problem to a discrete hidden Markov model under stationary and non-stationary situations. Our results indicate that even an unsupervised hidden Markov model can outperform LSTM when a massive amount of labeled data is not available. Furthermore, we show that the hidden Markov model can still be an effective method to process the sequence data even when the first-order Markov assumption is not satisfied.


Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python

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Online Courses Udemy Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python, Computer Vision and Data Science and Machine Learning combined! In Theano and TensorFlow Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Indonesian [Auto-generated], 6 more Students also bought Advanced AI: Deep Reinforcement Learning in Python Deep Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks in Python Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description This is the 3rd part in my Data Science and Machine Learning series on Deep Learning in Python. At this point, you already know a lot about neural networks and deep learning, including not just the basics like backpropagation, but how to improve it using modern techniques like momentum and adaptive learning rates. You've already written deep neural networks in Theano and TensorFlow, and you know how to run code using the GPU. This course is all about how to use deep learning for computer vision using convolutional neural networks.


Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python

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Online Courses Udemy Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python, Full Guide to Implementing Classic Machine Learning Algorithms in Python and with Sci-Kit Learn Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Spanish [Auto-generated] Students also bought Advanced AI: Deep Reinforcement Learning in Python Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python Deep Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks in Python Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description In recent years, we've seen a resurgence in AI, or artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Machine learning has led to some amazing results, like being able to analyze medical images and predict diseases on-par with human experts. Google's AlphaGo program was able to beat a world champion in the strategy game go using deep reinforcement learning. Machine learning is even being used to program self driving cars, which is going to change the automotive industry forever. Imagine a world with drastically reduced car accidents, simply by removing the element of human error.


Markov Decision Process

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A machine learning algorithm may be tasked with an optimization problem. Using reinforcement learning, the algorithm will attempt to optimize the actions taken within an environment, in order to maximize the potential reward. Where supervised learning techniques require correct input/output pairs to create a model, reinforcement learning uses Markov decision processes to determine an optimal balance of exploration and exploitation. Machine learning may use reinforcement learning by way of the Markov decision process when the probabilities and rewards of an outcome are unspecified or unknown.


Converting Anyone's Emotion: Towards Speaker-Independent Emotional Voice Conversion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emotional voice conversion aims to convert the emotion of speech from one state to another while preserving the linguistic content and speaker identity. The prior studies on emotional voice conversion are mostly carried out under the assumption that emotion is speaker-dependent. We consider that there is a common code between speakers for emotional expression in a spoken language, therefore, a speaker-independent mapping between emotional states is possible. In this paper, we propose a speaker-independent emotional voice conversion framework, that can convert anyone's emotion without the need for parallel data. We propose a VAW-GAN based encoder-decoder structure to learn the spectrum and prosody mapping. We perform prosody conversion by using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to model the temporal dependencies. We also investigate the use of F0 as an additional input to the decoder to improve emotion conversion performance. Experiments show that the proposed speaker-independent framework achieves competitive results for both seen and unseen speakers.


Assisted Perception: Optimizing Observations to Communicate State

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We aim to help users estimate the state of the world in tasks like robotic teleoperation and navigation with visual impairments, where users may have systematic biases that lead to suboptimal behavior: they might struggle to process observations from multiple sensors simultaneously, receive delayed observations, or overestimate distances to obstacles. While we cannot directly change the user's internal beliefs or their internal state estimation process, our insight is that we can still assist them by modifying the user's observations. Instead of showing the user their true observations, we synthesize new observations that lead to more accurate internal state estimates when processed by the user. We refer to this method as assistive state estimation (ASE): an automated assistant uses the true observations to infer the state of the world, then generates a modified observation for the user to consume (e.g., through an augmented reality interface), and optimizes the modification to induce the user's new beliefs to match the assistant's current beliefs. We evaluate ASE in a user study with 12 participants who each perform four tasks: two tasks with known user biases -- bandwidth-limited image classification and a driving video game with observation delay -- and two with unknown biases that our method has to learn -- guided 2D navigation and a lunar lander teleoperation video game. A different assistance strategy emerges in each domain, such as quickly revealing informative pixels to speed up image classification, using a dynamics model to undo observation delay in driving, identifying nearby landmarks for navigation, and exaggerating a visual indicator of tilt in the lander game. The results show that ASE substantially improves the task performance of users with bandwidth constraints, observation delay, and other unknown biases.


Unravelling the Architecture of Membrane Proteins with Conditional Random Fields

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we will show that the recently introduced graphical model: Conditional Random Fields (CRF) provides a template to integrate micro-level information about biological entities into a mathematical model to understand their macro-level behavior. More specifically, we will apply the CRF model to an important classification problem in protein science, namely the secondary structure prediction of proteins based on the observed primary structure. A comparison on benchmark data sets against twenty-eight other methods shows that not only does the CRF model lead to extremely accurate predictions but the modular nature of the model and the freedom to integrate disparate, overlapping and non-independent sources of information, makes the model an extremely versatile tool to potentially solve many other problems in bioinformatics.


Regret Analysis of a Markov Policy Gradient Algorithm for Multi-arm Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a policy gradient algorithm applied to a finite-arm bandit problem with Bernoulli rewards. We allow learning rates to depend on the current state of the algorithm, rather than use a deterministic time-decreasing learning rate. The state of the algorithm forms a Markov chain on the probability simplex. We apply Foster-Lyapunov techniques to analyse the stability of this Markov chain. We prove that if learning rates are well chosen then the policy gradient algorithm is a transient Markov chain and the state of the chain converges on the optimal arm with logarithmic or poly-logarithmic regret.