This paper estimates free energy, average mutual information, and minimum mean square error (MMSE) of a linear model under two assumptions: (1) the source is generated by a Markov chain, (2) the source is generated via a hidden Markov model. Our estimates are based on the replica method in statistical physics. We show that under the posterior mean estimator, the linear model with Markov sources or hidden Markov sources is decoupled into single-input AWGN channels with state information available at both encoder and decoder where the state distribution follows the left Perron-Frobenius eigenvector with unit Manhattan norm of the stochastic matrix of Markov chains. Numerical results show that the MMSEs obtained via the replica method are good lower bounds to the mean square errors (MSEs) achieved by some well-known approximate message passing algorithms in the research literature. Our estimates are based on the replica method which was developed originally to study mean field approximations in spin glasses [1]. Although this method lacks of rigorous mathematical proof in some particular parts, it has been widely accepted as an analytic tool and utilized to investigate a variety of problems in applied mathematics, information processing, and coding [2]. L. V Truong is with the Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge. A. Related Work The use of the replica method for studying multiuser estimators goes back to [3] where Tanaka determined the asymptotic bit error rate of Marginal-Posterior-Mode (MPM) estimators by employing the replica method.

In this paper, we propose Minimalist Transfer Learning (MinTL) to simplify the system design process of task-oriented dialogue systems and alleviate the over-dependency on annotated data. MinTL is a simple yet effective transfer learning framework, which allows us to plug-and-play pre-trained seq2seq models, and jointly learn dialogue state tracking and dialogue response generation. Unlike previous approaches, which use a copy mechanism to "carryover" the old dialogue states to the new one, we introduce Levenshtein belief spans (Lev), that allows efficient dialogue state tracking with a minimal generation length. We instantiate our learning framework with two pre-trained backbones: T5 and BART, and evaluate them on MultiWOZ. Extensive experiments demonstrate that: 1) our systems establish new state-of-the-art results on end-to-end response generation, 2) MinTL-based systems are more robust than baseline methods in the low resource setting, and they achieve competitive results with only 20\% training data, and 3) Lev greatly improves the inference efficiency.

We develop a recurrent gamma belief network (rGBN) for radar automatic target recognition (RATR) based on high-resolution range profile (HRRP), which characterizes the temporal dependence across the range cells of HRRP. The proposed rGBN adopts a hierarchy of gamma distributions to build its temporal deep generative model. For scalable training and fast out-of-sample prediction, we propose the hybrid of a stochastic-gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and a recurrent variational inference model to perform posterior inference. To utilize the label information to extract more discriminative latent representations, we further propose supervised rGBN to jointly model the HRRP samples and their corresponding labels. Experimental results on synthetic and measured HRRP data show that the proposed models are efficient in computation, have good classification accuracy and generalization ability, and provide highly interpretable multi-stochastic-layer latent structure.

Properly calibrated human trust is essential for successful interaction between humans and automation. However, while human trust calibration can be improved by increased automation transparency, too much transparency can overwhelm human workload. To address this tradeoff, we present a probabilistic framework using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) for modeling the coupled trust-workload dynamics of human behavior in an action-automation context. We specifically consider hands-off Level 2 driving automation in a city environment involving multiple intersections where the human chooses whether or not to rely on the automation. We consider automation reliability, automation transparency, and scene complexity, along with human reliance and eye-gaze behavior, to model the dynamics of human trust and workload. We demonstrate that our model framework can appropriately vary automation transparency based on real-time human trust and workload belief estimates to achieve trust calibration.

Equipping machines with comprehensive knowledge of the world's entities and their relationships has been a long-standing goal of AI. Over the last decade, large-scale knowledge bases, also known as knowledge graphs, have been automatically constructed from web contents and text sources, and have become a key asset for search engines. This machine knowledge can be harnessed to semantically interpret textual phrases in news, social media and web tables, and contributes to question answering, natural language processing and data analytics. This article surveys fundamental concepts and practical methods for creating and curating large knowledge bases. It covers models and methods for discovering and canonicalizing entities and their semantic types and organizing them into clean taxonomies. On top of this, the article discusses the automatic extraction of entity-centric properties. To support the long-term life-cycle and the quality assurance of machine knowledge, the article presents methods for constructing open schemas and for knowledge curation. Case studies on academic projects and industrial knowledge graphs complement the survey of concepts and methods.

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) formalize sequential decision-making problems whose objective is to minimize a cost function while satisfying constraints on various cost functions. In this paper, we consider the setting of episodic fixed-horizon CMDPs. We propose an online algorithm which leverages the linear programming formulation of finitehorizon CMDP for repeated optimistic planning to provide a probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee on the number of episodes needed to ensure an ǫ-optimal policy, i.e., with resulting objective value within ǫ of the optimal value and satisfying the constraints within ǫ-tolerance, with probability at least 1 δ. S, the number of episodes needed have a linear dependence on the state and action space sizes S and A, respectively, and quadratic dependence on the time horizon H. Markov decision processes (MDPs) [1] offer a natural framework to express sequential decision-making problems and reason about autonomous system behaviors. However, the single cost objective of a traditional MDP formulation may fall short of fully capturing problems with multiple conflicting objectives and additional constraints that must be satisfied.

Machine learning can be used to make sense of healthcare data. Probabilistic machine learning models help provide a complete picture of observed data in healthcare. In this review, we examine how probabilistic machine learning can advance healthcare. We consider challenges in the predictive model building pipeline where probabilistic models can be beneficial including calibration and missing data. Beyond predictive models, we also investigate the utility of probabilistic machine learning models in phenotyping, in generative models for clinical use cases, and in reinforcement learning.

Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty sets capture uncountable sets of probability distributions. We develop an algorithm to compute finite-memory policies for uPOMDPs that robustly satisfy given specifications against any admissible distribution. In general, computing such policies is both theoretically and practically intractable. We provide an efficient solution to this problem in four steps. (1) We state the underlying problem as a nonconvex optimization problem with infinitely many constraints. (2) A dedicated dualization scheme yields a dual problem that is still nonconvex but has finitely many constraints. (3) We linearize this dual problem and (4) solve the resulting finite linear program to obtain locally optimal solutions to the original problem. The resulting problem formulation is exponentially smaller than those resulting from existing methods. We demonstrate the applicability of our algorithm using large instances of an aircraft collision-avoidance scenario and a novel spacecraft motion planning case study.

Reinforcement learning algorithms solve sequential decision-making problems in probabilistic environments by optimizing for long-term reward. The desire to use reinforcement learning in safety-critical settings inspires a recent line of work on formally constrained reinforcement learning; however, these methods place the implementation of the learning algorithm in their Trusted Computing Base. The crucial correctness property of these implementations is a guarantee that the learning algorithm converges to an optimal policy. This paper begins the work of closing this gap by developing a Coq formalization of two canonical reinforcement learning algorithms: value and policy iteration for finite state Markov decision processes. The central results are a formalization of Bellman's optimality principle and its proof, which uses a contraction property of Bellman optimality operator to establish that a sequence converges in the infinite horizon limit. The CertRL development exemplifies how the Giry monad and mechanized metric coinduction streamline optimality proofs for reinforcement learning algorithms. The CertRL library provides a general framework for proving properties about Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning algorithms, paving the way for further work on formalization of reinforcement learning algorithms.

Sign language visual recognition from continuous multi-modal streams is still one of the most challenging fields. Recent advances in human actions recognition are exploiting the ascension of GPU-based learning from massive data, and are getting closer to human-like performances. They are then prone to creating interactive services for the deaf and hearing-impaired communities. A population that is expected to grow considerably in the years to come. This paper aims at reviewing the human actions recognition literature with the sign-language visual understanding as a scope. The methods analyzed will be mainly organized according to the different types of unimodal inputs exploited, their relative multi-modal combinations and pipeline steps. In each section, we will detail and compare the related datasets, approaches then distinguish the still open contribution paths suitable for the creation of sign language related services. Special attention will be paid to the approaches and commercial solutions handling facial expressions and continuous signing.