Preview this course - GET COUPON CODE Have you ever thought about what would happen if you combined the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence with financial engineering? Today, you can stop imagining, and start doing. This course will teach you the core fundamentals of financial engineering, with a machine learning twist. We will cover must-know topics in financial engineering, such as: Exploratory data analysis, significance testing, correlations, alpha and beta Time series analysis, simple moving average, exponentially-weighted moving average Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model Efficient Market Hypothesis Random Walk Hypothesis Time series forecasting ("stock price prediction") Modern portfolio theory Efficient frontier / Markowitz bullet Mean-variance optimization Maximizing the Sharpe ratio Convex optimization with Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Algorithmic trading (VIP only) Statistical Factor Models (VIP only) Regime Detection with Hidden Markov Models (VIP only) In addition, we will look at various non-traditional techniques which stem purely from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, such as: Classification models Unsupervised learning Reinforcement learning and Q-learning ***VIP-only sections (get it while it lasts!) You will learn exactly why their methodology is fundamentally flawed and why their results are complete nonsense.

One of the most challenging aspects of real-world reinforcement learning (RL) is the multitude of unpredictable and ever-changing distractions that could divert an agent from what was tasked to do in its training environment. While an agent could learn from reward signals to ignore them, the complexity of the real-world can make rewards hard to acquire, or, at best, extremely sparse. A recent class of self-supervised methods have shown promise that reward-free adaptation under challenging distractions is possible. However, previous work focused on a short one-episode adaptation setting. In this paper, we consider a long-term adaptation setup that is more akin to the specifics of the real-world and propose a geometric perspective on self-supervised adaptation. We empirically describe the processes that take place in the embedding space during this adaptation process, reveal some of its undesirable effects on performance and show how they can be eliminated. Moreover, we theoretically study how actor-based and actor-free agents can further generalise to the target environment by manipulating the geometry of the manifolds described by the actor and critic functions.

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian recurrent state space model for modeling switching network connectivity in resting state fMRI data. Our model allows us to uncover shared network patterns across disease conditions. We evaluate our method on the ADNI2 dataset by inferring latent state patterns corresponding to altered neural circuits in individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In addition to states shared across healthy and individuals with MCI, we discover latent states that are predominantly observed in individuals with MCI. Our model outperforms current state of the art deep learning method on ADNI2 dataset.

Seamlessly interacting with humans or robots is hard because these agents are non-stationary. They update their policy in response to the ego agent's behavior, and the ego agent must anticipate these changes to co-adapt. Inspired by humans, we recognize that robots do not need to explicitly model every low-level action another agent will make; instead, we can capture the latent strategy of other agents through high-level representations. We propose a reinforcement learning-based framework for learning latent representations of an agent's policy, where the ego agent identifies the relationship between its behavior and the other agent's future strategy. The ego agent then leverages these latent dynamics to influence the other agent, purposely guiding them towards policies suitable for co-adaptation. Across several simulated domains and a real-world air hockey game, our approach outperforms the alternatives and learns to influence the other agent.

In searching for a generalizable representation of temporally extended tasks, we spot two necessary constituents: the utility needs to be non-Markovian to transfer temporal relations invariant to a probability shift, the utility also needs to be lifted to abstract out specific grounding objects. In this work, we study learning such utility from human demonstrations. While inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) has been accepted as a general framework of utility learning, its fundamental formulation is one concrete Markov Decision Process. Thus the learned reward function does not specify the task independently of the environment. Going beyond that, we define a domain of generalization that spans a set of planning problems following a schema. We hence propose a new quest, Generalized Inverse Planning, for utility learning in this domain. We further outline a computational framework, Maximum Entropy Inverse Planning (MEIP), that learns non-Markovian utility and associated concepts in a generative manner. The learned utility and concepts form a task representation that generalizes regardless of probability shift or structural change. Seeing that the proposed generalization problem has not been widely studied yet, we carefully define an evaluation protocol, with which we illustrate the effectiveness of MEIP on two proof-of-concept domains and one challenging task: learning to fold from demonstrations.

Psychological research shows that enjoyment of many goods is subject to satiation, with enjoyment declining after repeated exposures to the same item. Nevertheless, proposed algorithms for powering recommender systems seldom model these dynamics, instead proceeding as though user preferences were fixed in time. In this work, we adopt a multi-armed bandit setup, modeling satiation dynamics as a time-invariant linear dynamical system. In our model, the expected rewards for each arm decline monotonically with consecutive exposures and rebound towards the initial reward whenever that arm is not pulled. We analyze this model, showing that, when the arms exhibit deterministic identical dynamics, our problem is equivalent to a specific instance of Max K-Cut. In this case, a greedy policy, which plays the arms in a cyclic order, is optimal. In the general setting, where each arm's satiation dynamics are stochastic and governed by different (unknown) parameters, we propose an algorithm that first uses offline data to estimate each arm's reward model and then plans using a generalization of the greedy policy.

This paper proves that the episodic learning environment of every finite-horizon decision task has a unique steady state under any behavior policy, and that the marginal distribution of the agent's input indeed approaches to the steady-state distribution in essentially all episodic learning processes. This observation supports an interestingly reversed mindset against conventional wisdom: While steady states are usually presumed to exist in continual learning and are considered less relevant in episodic learning, it turns out they are guaranteed to exist for the latter. Based on this insight, the paper further develops connections between episodic and continual RL for several important concepts that have been separately treated in the two RL formalisms. Practically, the existence of unique and approachable steady state enables a general, reliable, and efficient way to collect data in episodic RL tasks, which the paper applies to policy gradient algorithms as a demonstration, based on a new steady-state policy gradient theorem. The paper also proposes and empirically evaluates a perturbation method that facilitates rapid mixing in real-world tasks.

Sequence labeling (SL) is a fundamental research problem encompassing a variety of tasks, e.g., part-of-speech (POS) tagging, named entity recognition (NER), text chunking, etc. Though prevalent and effective in many downstream applications (e.g., information retrieval, question answering, and knowledge graph embedding), conventional sequence labeling approaches heavily rely on hand-crafted or language-specific features. Recently, deep learning has been employed for sequence labeling tasks due to its powerful capability in automatically learning complex features of instances and effectively yielding the stat-of-the-art performances. In this paper, we aim to present a comprehensive review of existing deep learning-based sequence labeling models, which consists of three related tasks, e.g., part-of-speech tagging, named entity recognition, and text chunking. Then, we systematically present the existing approaches base on a scientific taxonomy, as well as the widely-used experimental datasets and popularly-adopted evaluation metrics in the SL domain. Furthermore, we also present an in-depth analysis of different SL models on the factors that may affect the performance and future directions in the SL domain.

Active reinforcement learning (ARL) is a variant on reinforcement learning where the agent does not observe the reward unless it chooses to pay a query cost c > 0. The central question of ARL is how to quantify the long-term value of reward information. Even in multi-armed bandits, computing the value of this information is intractable and we have to rely on heuristics. We propose and evaluate several heuristic approaches for ARL in multi-armed bandits and (tabular) Markov decision processes, and discuss and illustrate some challenging aspects of the ARL problem.

Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Indonesian [Auto-generated], 5 more Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. Like the course I just released on Hidden Markov Models, Recurrent Neural Networks are all about learning sequences - but whereas Markov Models are limited by the Markov assumption, Recurrent Neural Networks are not - and as a result, they are more expressive, and more powerful than anything we've seen on tasks that we haven't made progress on in decades. So what's going to be in this course and how will it build on the previous neural network courses and Hidden Markov Models? In the first section of the course we are going to add the concept of time to our neural networks. I'll introduce you to the Simple Recurrent Unit, also known as the Elman unit.