Markov Models
Inductive Biases for Deep Learning of Higher-Level Cognition
Goyal, Anirudh, Bengio, Yoshua
A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own intelligence and build intelligent machines. Just like in physics, the principles themselves would not be sufficient to predict the behavior of complex systems like brains, and substantial computation might be needed to simulate human-like intelligence. This hypothesis would suggest that studying the kind of inductive biases that humans and animals exploit could help both clarify these principles and provide inspiration for AI research and neuroscience theories. Deep learning already exploits several key inductive biases, and this work considers a larger list, focusing on those which concern mostly higher-level and sequential conscious processing. The objective of clarifying these particular principles is that they could potentially help us build AI systems benefiting from humans' abilities in terms of flexible out-of-distribution and systematic generalization, which is currently an area where a large gap exists between state-of-the-art machine learning and human intelligence.
Adaptive Stress Testing: Finding Likely Failure Events with Reinforcement Learning
Lee, Ritchie (Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies) | Mengshoel, Ole J. (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) | Saksena, Anshu (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) | Gardner, Ryan W. (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) | Genin, Daniel (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) | Silbermann, Joshua | Owen, Michael (MIT Lincoln Laboratory) | Kochenderfer, Mykel J. (Stanford University)
Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates. As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.
Neural Online Graph Exploration
Chiotellis, Ioannis, Cremers, Daniel
Can we learn how to explore unknown spaces efficiently? To answer this question, we study the problem of Online Graph Exploration, the online version of the Traveling Salesperson Problem. We reformulate graph exploration as a reinforcement learning problem and apply Direct Future Prediction (Dosovitskiy and Koltun, 2016) to solve it. As the graph is discovered online, the corresponding Markov Decision Process entails a dynamic state space, namely the observable graph and a dynamic action space, namely the nodes forming the graph's frontier. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to solve online graph exploration in a data-driven way. We conduct experiments on six data sets of procedurally generated graphs and three real city road networks. We demonstrate that our agent can learn strategies superior to many well known graph traversal algorithms, confirming that exploration can be learned.
Multivariate Density Estimation with Deep Neural Mixture Models
Albeit worryingly underrated in the recent literature on machine learning in general (and, on deep learning in particular), multivariate density estimation is a fundamental task in many applications, at least implicitly, and still an open issue. With a few exceptions, deep neural networks (DNNs) have seldom been applied to density estimation, mostly due to the unsupervised nature of the estimation task, and (especially) due to the need for constrained training algorithms that ended up realizing proper probabilistic models that satisfy Kolmogorov's axioms. Moreover, in spite of the well-known improvement in terms of modeling capabilities yielded by mixture models over plain single-density statistical estimators, no proper mixtures of multivariate DNN-based component densities have been investigated so far. The paper fills this gap by extending our previous work on Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate DNN mixtures. A maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithm for estimating Deep NMMs (DNMMs) is handed out, which satisfies numerically a combination of hard and soft constraints aimed at ensuring satisfaction of Kolmogorov's axioms. The class of probability density functions that can be modeled to any degree of precision via DNMMs is formally defined. A procedure for the automatic selection of the DNMM architecture, as well as of the hyperparameters for its ML training algorithm, is presented (exploiting the probabilistic nature of the DNMM). Experimental results on univariate and multivariate data are reported on, corroborating the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority to the most popular statistical estimation techniques.
Neurosymbolic AI for Situated Language Understanding
Krishnaswamy, Nikhil, Pustejovsky, James
In recent years, data-intensive AI, particularly the domain of natural language processing and understanding, has seen significant progress driven by the advent of large datasets and deep neural networks that have sidelined more classic AI approaches to the field. These systems can apparently demonstrate sophisticated linguistic understanding or generation capabilities, but often fail to transfer their skills to situations they have not encountered before. We argue that computational situated grounding provides a solution to some of these learning challenges by creating situational representations that both serve as a formal model of the salient phenomena, and contain rich amounts of exploitable, task-appropriate data for training new, flexible computational models. Our model reincorporates some ideas of classic AI into a framework of neurosymbolic intelligence, using multimodal contextual modeling of interactive situations, events, and object properties. We discuss how situated grounding provides diverse data and multiple levels of modeling for a variety of AI learning challenges, including learning how to interact with object affordances, learning semantics for novel structures and configurations, and transferring such learned knowledge to new objects and situations.
Constrained Risk-Averse Markov Decision Processes
Ahmadi, Mohamadreza, Rosolia, Ugo, Ingham, Michel D., Murray, Richard M., Ames, Aaron D.
We consider the problem of designing policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives and constraints. We begin by formulating the problem in a Lagrangian framework. Under the assumption that the risk objectives and constraints can be represented by a Markov risk transition mapping, we propose an optimization-based method to synthesize Markovian policies that lower-bound the constrained risk-averse problem. We demonstrate that the formulated optimization problems are in the form of difference convex programs (DCPs) and can be solved by the disciplined convex-concave programming (DCCP) framework. We show that these results generalize linear programs for constrained MDPs with total discounted expected costs and constraints. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with numerical experiments on a rover navigation problem involving conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) and entropic-value-at-risk (EVaR) coherent risk measures.
Efficient semidefinite-programming-based inference for binary and multi-class MRFs
Pabbaraju, Chirag, Wang, Po-Wei, Kolter, J. Zico
Probabilistic inference in pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs), i.e. computing the partition function or computing a MAP estimate of the variables, is a foundational problem in probabilistic graphical models. Semidefinite programming relaxations have long been a theoretically powerful tool for analyzing properties of probabilistic inference, but have not been practical owing to the high computational cost of typical solvers for solving the resulting SDPs. In this paper, we propose an efficient method for computing the partition function or MAP estimate in a pairwise MRF by instead exploiting a recently proposed coordinate-descent-based fast semidefinite solver. We also extend semidefinite relaxations from the typical binary MRF to the full multi-class setting, and develop a compact semidefinite relaxation that can again be solved efficiently using the solver. We show that the method substantially outperforms (both in terms of solution quality and speed) the existing state of the art in approximate inference, on benchmark problems drawn from previous work. We also show that our approach can scale to large MRF domains such as fully-connected pairwise CRF models used in computer vision.
Verifiable Planning in Expected Reward Multichain MDPs
Atia, George K., Beckus, Andre, Alkhouri, Ismail, Velasquez, Alvaro
The planning domain has experienced increased interest in the formal synthesis of decision-making policies. This formal synthesis typically entails finding a policy which satisfies formal specifications in the form of some well-defined logic, such as Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) or Computation Tree Logic (CTL), among others. While such logics are very powerful and expressive in their capacity to capture desirable agent behavior, their value is limited when deriving decision-making policies which satisfy certain types of asymptotic behavior. In particular, we are interested in specifying constraints on the steady-state behavior of an agent, which captures the proportion of time an agent spends in each state as it interacts for an indefinite period of time with its environment. This is sometimes called the average or expected behavior of the agent. In this paper, we explore the steady-state planning problem of deriving a decision-making policy for an agent such that constraints on its steady-state behavior are satisfied. A linear programming solution for the general case of multichain Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is proposed and we prove that optimal solutions to the proposed programs yield stationary policies with rigorous guarantees of behavior.
Emergent Complexity and Zero-shot Transfer via Unsupervised Environment Design
Dennis, Michael, Jaques, Natasha, Vinitsky, Eugene, Bayen, Alexandre, Russell, Stuart, Critch, Andrew, Levine, Sergey
A wide range of reinforcement learning (RL) problems -- including robustness, transfer learning, unsupervised RL, and emergent complexity -- require specifying a distribution of tasks or environments in which a policy will be trained. However, creating a useful distribution of environments is error prone, and takes a significant amount of developer time and effort. We propose Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) as an alternative paradigm, where developers provide environments with unknown parameters, and these parameters are used to automatically produce a distribution over valid, solvable environments. Existing approaches to automatically generating environments suffer from common failure modes: domain randomization cannot generate structure or adapt the difficulty of the environment to the agent's learning progress, and minimax adversarial training leads to worst-case environments that are often unsolvable. To generate structured, solvable environments for our protagonist agent, we introduce a second, antagonist agent that is allied with the environment-generating adversary. The adversary is motivated to generate environments which maximize regret, defined as the difference between the protagonist and antagonist agent's return. We call our technique Protagonist Antagonist Induced Regret Environment Design (PAIRED). Our experiments demonstrate that PAIRED produces a natural curriculum of increasingly complex environments, and PAIRED agents achieve higher zero-shot transfer performance when tested in highly novel environments.
Leveraging Neural Network Gradients within Trajectory Optimization for Proactive Human-Robot Interactions
Schaefer, Simon, Leung, Karen, Ivanovic, Boris, Pavone, Marco
To achieve seamless human-robot interactions, robots need to intimately reason about complex interaction dynamics and future human behaviors within their motion planning process. However, there is a disconnect between state-of-the-art neural network-based human behavior models and robot motion planners -- either the behavior models are limited in their consideration of downstream planning or a simplified behavior model is used to ensure tractability of the planning problem. In this work, we present a framework that fuses together the interpretability and flexibility of trajectory optimization (TO) with the predictive power of state-of-the-art human trajectory prediction models. In particular, we leverage gradient information from data-driven prediction models to explicitly reason about human-robot interaction dynamics within a gradient-based TO problem. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a multi-agent scenario whereby a robot is required to safely and efficiently navigate through a crowd of up to ten pedestrians. We compare against a variety of planning methods, and show that by explicitly accounting for interaction dynamics within the planner, our method offers safer and more efficient behaviors, even yielding proactive and nuanced behaviors such as waiting for a pedestrian to pass before moving.