Markov Models
Learning to Play Imperfect-Information Games by Imitating an Oracle Planner
Boney, Rinu, Ilin, Alexander, Kannala, Juho, Seppรคnen, Jarno
We consider learning to play multiplayer imperfect-information games with simultaneous moves and large state-action spaces. Previous attempts to tackle such challenging games have largely focused on model-free learning methods, often requiring hundreds of years of experience to produce competitive agents. Our approach is based on model-based planning. We tackle the problem of partial observability by first building an (oracle) planner that has access to the full state of the environment and then distilling the knowledge of the oracle to a (follower) agent which is trained to play the imperfect-information game by imitating the oracle's choices. We experimentally show that planning with naive Monte Carlo tree search does not perform very well in large combinatorial action spaces. We therefore propose planning with a fixed-depth tree search and decoupled Thompson sampling for action selection. We show that the planner is able to discover efficient playing strategies in the games of Clash Royale and Pommerman and the follower policy successfully learns to implement them by training on a few hundred battles.
Neural Methods for Effective, Efficient, and Exposure-Aware Information Retrieval
Neural networks with deep architectures have demonstrated significant performance improvements in computer vision, speech recognition, and natural language processing. The challenges in information retrieval (IR), however, are different from these other application areas. A common form of IR involves ranking of documents -- or short passages -- in response to keyword-based queries. Effective IR systems must deal with query-document vocabulary mismatch problem, by modeling relationships between different query and document terms and how they indicate relevance. Models should also consider lexical matches when the query contains rare terms -- such as a person's name or a product model number -- not seen during training, and to avoid retrieving semantically related but irrelevant results. In many real-life IR tasks, the retrieval involves extremely large collections -- such as the document index of a commercial Web search engine -- containing billions of documents. Efficient IR methods should take advantage of specialized IR data structures, such as inverted index, to efficiently retrieve from large collections. Given an information need, the IR system also mediates how much exposure an information artifact receives by deciding whether it should be displayed, and where it should be positioned, among other results. Exposure-aware IR systems may optimize for additional objectives, besides relevance, such as parity of exposure for retrieved items and content publishers. In this thesis, we present novel neural architectures and methods motivated by the specific needs and challenges of IR tasks.
Scalable Deep Reinforcement Learning for Routing and Spectrum Access in Physical Layer
This paper proposes a novel and scalable reinforcement learning approach for simultaneous routing and spectrum access in wireless ad-hoc networks. In most previous works on reinforcement learning for network optimization, routing and spectrum access are tackled as separate tasks; further, the wireless links in the network are assumed to be fixed, and a different agent is trained for each transmission node -- this limits scalability and generalizability. In this paper, we account for the inherent signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) in the physical layer and propose a more scalable approach in which a single agent is associated with each flow. Specifically, a single agent makes all routing and spectrum access decisions as it moves along the frontier nodes of each flow. The agent is trained according to the physical layer characteristics of the environment using the future bottleneck SINR as a novel reward definition. This allows a highly effective routing strategy based on the geographic locations of the nodes in the wireless ad-hoc network. The proposed deep reinforcement learning strategy is capable of accounting for the mutual interference between the links. It learns to avoid interference by intelligently allocating spectrum slots and making routing decisions for the entire network in a scalable manner.
Offline Reinforcement Learning from Images with Latent Space Models
Rafailov, Rafael, Yu, Tianhe, Rajeswaran, Aravind, Finn, Chelsea
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) refers to the problem of learning policies from a static dataset of environment interactions. Offline RL enables extensive use and re-use of historical datasets, while also alleviating safety concerns associated with online exploration, thereby expanding the real-world applicability of RL. Most prior work in offline RL has focused on tasks with compact state representations. However, the ability to learn directly from rich observation spaces like images is critical for real-world applications such as robotics. In this work, we build on recent advances in model-based algorithms for offline RL, and extend them to high-dimensional visual observation spaces. Model-based offline RL algorithms have achieved state of the art results in state based tasks and have strong theoretical guarantees. However, they rely crucially on the ability to quantify uncertainty in the model predictions, which is particularly challenging with image observations. To overcome this challenge, we propose to learn a latent-state dynamics model, and represent the uncertainty in the latent space. Our approach is both tractable in practice and corresponds to maximizing a lower bound of the ELBO in the unknown POMDP. In experiments on a range of challenging image-based locomotion and manipulation tasks, we find that our algorithm significantly outperforms previous offline model-free RL methods as well as state-of-the-art online visual model-based RL methods. Moreover, we also find that our approach excels on an image-based drawer closing task on a real robot using a pre-existing dataset. All results including videos can be found online at https://sites.google.com/view/lompo/ .
Spatial Monte Carlo Integration with Annealed Importance Sampling
Yasuda, Muneki, Sekimoto, Kaiji
Evaluating expectations on a pairwise Boltzmann machine (PBM) (or Ising model) is important for various applications, including the statistical machine learning. However, in general the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable multiple summations or integrations; therefore, it requires an approximation. Monte Carlo integration (MCI) is a well-known approximation method; a more effective MCI-like approximation method was proposed recently, called spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI). However, the estimations obtained from SMCI (and MCI) tend to perform poorly in PBMs with low temperature owing to degradation of the sampling quality. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is a type of importance sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and it can suppress performance degradation in low temperature regions by the force of importance weights. In this study, a new method is proposed to evaluate the expectations on PBMs combining AIS and SMCI. The proposed method performs efficiently in both high- and low-temperature regions, which is theoretically and numerically demonstrated.
Voronoi Progressive Widening: Efficient Online Solvers for Continuous Space MDPs and POMDPs with Provably Optimal Components
Lim, Michael H., Tomlin, Claire J., Sunberg, Zachary N.
Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) can effectively represent complex real-world decision and control problems. However, continuous space MDPs and POMDPs, i.e. those having continuous state, action and observation spaces, are extremely difficult to solve, and there are few online algorithms with convergence guarantees. This paper introduces Voronoi Progressive Widening (VPW), a general technique to modify tree search algorithms to effectively handle continuous or hybrid action spaces, and proposes and evaluates three continuous space solvers: VOSS, VOWSS, and VOMCPOW. VOSS and VOWSS are theoretical tools based on sparse sampling and Voronoi optimistic optimization designed to justify VPW-based online solvers. While previous algorithms have enjoyed convergence guarantees for problems with continuous state and observation spaces, VOWSS is the first with global convergence guarantees for problems that additionally have continuous action spaces. VOMCPOW is a versatile and efficient VPW-based algorithm that consistently outperforms POMCPOW and BOMCP in several simulation experiments.
Exact Reduction of Huge Action Spaces in General Reinforcement Learning
Majeed, Sultan Javed, Hutter, Marcus
The reinforcement learning (RL) framework formalizes the notion of learning with interactions. Many real-world problems have large state-spaces and/or action-spaces such as in Go, StarCraft, protein folding, and robotics or are non-Markovian, which cause significant challenges to RL algorithms. In this work we address the large action-space problem by sequentializing actions, which can reduce the action-space size significantly, even down to two actions at the expense of an increased planning horizon. We provide explicit and exact constructions and equivalence proofs for all quantities of interest for arbitrary history-based processes. In the case of MDPs, this could help RL algorithms that bootstrap. In this work we show how action-binarization in the non-MDP case can significantly improve Extreme State Aggregation (ESA) bounds. ESA allows casting any (non-MDP, non-ergodic, history-based) RL problem into a fixed-sized non-Markovian state-space with the help of a surrogate Markovian process. On the upside, ESA enjoys similar optimality guarantees as Markovian models do. But a downside is that the size of the aggregated state-space becomes exponential in the size of the action-space. In this work, we patch this issue by binarizing the action-space. We provide an upper bound on the number of states of this binarized ESA that is logarithmic in the original action-space size, a double-exponential improvement.
EVA: Generating Longitudinal Electronic Health Records Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders
Biswal, Siddharth, Ghosh, Soumya, Duke, Jon, Malin, Bradley, Stewart, Walter, Sun, Jimeng
Researchers require timely access to real-world longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) to develop, test, validate, and implement machine learning solutions that improve the quality and efficiency of healthcare. In contrast, health systems value deeply patient privacy and data security. De-identified EHRs do not adequately address the needs of health systems, as de-identified data are susceptible to re-identification and its volume is also limited. Synthetic EHRs offer a potential solution. In this paper, we propose EHR Variational Autoencoder (EVA) for synthesizing sequences of discrete EHR encounters (e.g., clinical visits) and encounter features (e.g., diagnoses, medications, procedures). We illustrate that EVA can produce realistic EHR sequences, account for individual differences among patients, and can be conditioned on specific disease conditions, thus enabling disease-specific studies. We design efficient, accurate inference algorithms by combining stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo with amortized variational inference. We assess the utility of the methods on large real-world EHR repositories containing over 250, 000 patients. Our experiments, which include user studies with knowledgeable clinicians, indicate the generated EHR sequences are realistic. We confirmed the performance of predictive models trained on the synthetic data are similar with those trained on real EHRs. Additionally, our findings indicate that augmenting real data with synthetic EHRs results in the best predictive performance - improving the best baseline by as much as 8% in top-20 recall.
DenseHMM: Learning Hidden Markov Models by Learning Dense Representations
Sicking, Joachim, Pintz, Maximilian, Akila, Maram, Wirtz, Tim
We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed of these representations via kernelization. Our approach enables constraint-free and gradient-based optimization. We propose two optimization schemes that make use of this: a modification of the Baum-Welch algorithm and a direct co-occurrence optimization. The latter one is highly scalable and comes empirically without loss of performance compared to standard HMMs. We show that the non-linearity of the kernelization is crucial for the expressiveness of the representations. The properties of the DenseHMM like learned co-occurrences and log-likelihoods are studied empirically on synthetic and biomedical datasets.
Neurosymbolic AI: The 3rd Wave
Garcez, Artur d'Avila, Lamb, Luis C.
Current advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have achieved unprecedented impact across research communities and industry. Nevertheless, concerns about trust, safety, interpretability and accountability of AI were raised by influential thinkers. Many have identified the need for well-founded knowledge representation and reasoning to be integrated with deep learning and for sound explainability. Neural-symbolic computing has been an active area of research for many years seeking to bring together robust learning in neural networks with reasoning and explainability via symbolic representations for network models. In this paper, we relate recent and early research results in neurosymbolic AI with the objective of identifying the key ingredients of the next wave of AI systems. We focus on research that integrates in a principled way neural network-based learning with symbolic knowledge representation and logical reasoning. The insights provided by 20 years of neural-symbolic computing are shown to shed new light onto the increasingly prominent role of trust, safety, interpretability and accountability of AI. We also identify promising directions and challenges for the next decade of AI research from the perspective of neural-symbolic systems.