Clinical event sequences consist of thousands of clinical events that represent records of patient care in time. Developing accurate prediction models for such sequences is of a great importance for defining representations of a patient state and for improving patient care. One important challenge of learning a good predictive model of clinical sequences is patient-specific variability. Based on underlying clinical complications, each patient's sequence may consist of different sets of clinical events. However, population-based models learned from such sequences may not accurately predict patient-specific dynamics of event sequences. To address the problem, we develop a new adaptive event sequence prediction framework that learns to adjust its prediction for individual patients through an online model update.

This is an intermediate-level free artificial intelligence course. This course will teach the basics of modern AI as well as some of the representative applications of AI including machine learning, probabilistic reasoning, robotics, computer vision, and natural language processing. To understand this course, you should have some previous understanding of probability theory and linear algebra.

We analyze a class of stochastic dynamic games among teams with asymmetric information, where members of a team share their observations internally with a delay of $d$. Each team is associated with a controlled Markov Chain, whose dynamics are coupled through the players' actions. These games exhibit challenges in both theory and practice due to the presence of signaling and the increasing domain of information over time. We develop a general approach to characterize a subset of Nash Equilibria where the agents can use a compressed version of their information, instead of the full information, to choose their actions. We identify two subclasses of strategies: Sufficient Private Information Based (SPIB) strategies, which only compress private information, and Compressed Information Based (CIB) strategies, which compress both common and private information. We show that while SPIB-strategy-based equilibria always exist, the same is not true for CIB-strategy-based equilibria. We develop a backward inductive sequential procedure, whose solution (if it exists) provides a CIB strategy-based equilibrium. We identify some instances where we can guarantee the existence of a solution to the above procedure. Our results highlight the tension among compression of information, existence of (compression based) equilibria, and backward inductive sequential computation of such equilibria in stochastic dynamic games with asymmetric information.

Replay is the reactivation of one or more neural patterns, which are similar to the activation patterns experienced during past waking experiences. Replay was first observed in biological neural networks during sleep, and it is now thought to play a critical role in memory formation, retrieval, and consolidation. Replay-like mechanisms have been incorporated into deep artificial neural networks that learn over time to avoid catastrophic forgetting of previous knowledge. Replay algorithms have been successfully used in a wide range of deep learning methods within supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning paradigms. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive comparison between replay in the mammalian brain and replay in artificial neural networks. We identify multiple aspects of biological replay that are missing in deep learning systems and hypothesize how they could be utilized to improve artificial neural networks.

This paper proposes a mechanism to assess the safety of autonomous cars. It assesses the car's safety in scenarios where the car must avoid collision with an adversary. Core to this mechanism is a safety measure, called Safe-Kamikaze Distance (SKD), which computes the average similarity between sets of safe adversary's trajectories and kamikaze trajectories close to the safe trajectories. The kamikaze trajectories are generated based on planning under uncertainty techniques, namely the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes, to account for the partially observed car policy from the point of view of the adversary. We found that SKD is inversely proportional to the upper bound on the probability that a small deformation changes a collision-free trajectory of the adversary into a colliding one. We perform systematic tests on a scenario where the adversary is a pedestrian crossing a single-lane road in front of the car being assessed --which is, one of the scenarios in the Euro-NCAP's Vulnerable Road User (VRU) tests on Autonomous Emergency Braking. Simulation results on assessing cars with basic controllers and a test on a Machine-Learning controller using a high-fidelity simulator indicates promising results for SKD to measure the safety of autonomous cars. Moreover, the time taken for each simulation test is under 11 seconds, enabling a sufficient statistics to compute SKD from simulation to be generated on a quad-core desktop in less than 25 minutes.

We present AlphaChute: a state-of-the-art algorithm that achieves superhuman performance in the ancient game of Chutes and Ladders. We prove that our algorithm converges to the Nash equilibrium in constant time, and therefore is -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first such formal solution to this game. Surprisingly, despite all this, our implementation of AlphaChute remains relatively straightforward due to domain-specific adaptations. We provide the source code for AlphaChute here in our Appendix.

We present a deep reinforcement learning-based artificial intelligence agent that could provide optimized development plans given a basic description of the reservoir and rock/fluid properties with minimal computational cost. This artificial intelligence agent, comprising of a convolutional neural network, provides a mapping from a given state of the reservoir model, constraints, and economic condition to the optimal decision (drill/do not drill and well location) to be taken in the next stage of the defined sequential field development planning process. The state of the reservoir model is defined using parameters that appear in the governing equations of the two-phase flow. A feedback loop training process referred to as deep reinforcement learning is used to train an artificial intelligence agent with such a capability. The training entails millions of flow simulations with varying reservoir model descriptions (structural, rock and fluid properties), operational constraints, and economic conditions. The parameters that define the reservoir model, operational constraints, and economic conditions are randomly sampled from a defined range of applicability. Several algorithmic treatments are introduced to enhance the training of the artificial intelligence agent. After appropriate training, the artificial intelligence agent provides an optimized field development plan instantly for new scenarios within the defined range of applicability. This approach has advantages over traditional optimization algorithms (e.g., particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm) that are generally used to find a solution for a specific field development scenario and typically not generalizable to different scenarios.

Artificial Intelligence is one of the fastest growing technologies of the 21st century and accompanies us in our daily lives when interacting with technical applications. However, reliance on such technical systems is crucial for their widespread applicability and acceptance. The societal tools to express reliance are usually formalized by lawful regulations, i.e., standards, norms, accreditations, and certificates. Therefore, the T\"UV AUSTRIA Group in cooperation with the Institute for Machine Learning at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, proposes a certification process and an audit catalog for Machine Learning applications. We are convinced that our approach can serve as the foundation for the certification of applications that use Machine Learning and Deep Learning, the techniques that drive the current revolution in Artificial Intelligence. While certain high-risk areas, such as fully autonomous robots in workspaces shared with humans, are still some time away from certification, we aim to cover low-risk applications with our certification procedure. Our holistic approach attempts to analyze Machine Learning applications from multiple perspectives to evaluate and verify the aspects of secure software development, functional requirements, data quality, data protection, and ethics. Inspired by existing work, we introduce four criticality levels to map the criticality of a Machine Learning application regarding the impact of its decisions on people, environment, and organizations. Currently, the audit catalog can be applied to low-risk applications within the scope of supervised learning as commonly encountered in industry. Guided by field experience, scientific developments, and market demands, the audit catalog will be extended and modified accordingly.

This paper introduces an adaptive model-free deep reinforcement approach that can recognize and adapt to the diurnal patterns in the ride-sharing environment with car-pooling. Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) suffers from catastrophic forgetting due to being agnostic to the timescale of changes in the distribution of experiences. Although RL algorithms are guaranteed to converge to optimal policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs), this only holds in the presence of static environments. However, this assumption is very restrictive. In many real-world problems like ride-sharing, traffic control, etc., we are dealing with highly dynamic environments, where RL methods yield only sub-optimal decisions. To mitigate this problem in highly dynamic environments, we (1) adopt an online Dirichlet change point detection (ODCP) algorithm to detect the changes in the distribution of experiences, (2) develop a Deep Q Network (DQN) agent that is capable of recognizing diurnal patterns and making informed dispatching decisions according to the changes in the underlying environment. Rather than fixing patterns by time of week, the proposed approach automatically detects that the MDP has changed, and uses the results of the new model. In addition to the adaptation logic in dispatching, this paper also proposes a dynamic, demand-aware vehicle-passenger matching and route planning framework that dynamically generates optimal routes for each vehicle based on online demand, vehicle capacities, and locations. Evaluation on New York City Taxi public dataset shows the effectiveness of our approach in improving the fleet utilization, where less than 50% of the fleet are utilized to serve the demand of up to 90% of the requests, while maximizing profits and minimizing idle times.

Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems detect event occurrences in streaming time-stamped input using predefined event patterns. Logic-based approaches are of special interest in CER, since, via Statistical Relational AI, they combine uncertainty-resilient reasoning with time and change, with machine learning, thus alleviating the cost of manual event pattern authoring. We present a system based on Answer Set Programming (ASP), capable of probabilistic reasoning with complex event patterns in the form of weighted rules in the Event Calculus, whose structure and weights are learnt online. We compare our ASP-based implementation with a Markov Logic-based one and with a number of state-of-the-art batch learning algorithms on CER datasets for activity recognition, maritime surveillance and fleet management. Our results demonstrate the superiority of our novel approach, both in terms of efficiency and predictive performance. This paper is under consideration for publication in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).