To successfully negotiate a deal, it is not enough to communicate fluently: pragmatic planning of persuasive negotiation strategies is essential. While modern dialogue agents excel at generating fluent sentences, they still lack pragmatic grounding and cannot reason strategically. We present DialoGraph, a negotiation system that incorporates pragmatic strategies in a negotiation dialogue using graph neural networks. DialoGraph explicitly incorporates dependencies between sequences of strategies to enable improved and interpretable prediction of next optimal strategies, given the dialogue context. Our graph-based method outperforms prior state-of-the-art negotiation models both in the accuracy of strategy/dialogue act prediction and in the quality of downstream dialogue response generation. We qualitatively show further benefits of learned strategy-graphs in providing explicit associations between effective negotiation strategies over the course of the dialogue, leading to interpretable and strategic dialogues.

Centralized Training with Decentralized Execution (CTDE) has been a popular paradigm in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) settings and is widely used in many real applications. One of the major challenges in the training process is credit assignment, which aims to deduce the contributions of each agent according to the global rewards. Existing credit assignment methods focus on either decomposing the joint value function into individual value functions or measuring the impact of local observations and actions on the global value function. These approaches lack a thorough consideration of the complicated interactions among multiple agents, leading to an unsuitable assignment of credit and subsequently mediocre results on MARL. We propose Shapley Counterfactual Credit Assignment, a novel method for explicit credit assignment which accounts for the coalition of agents. Specifically, Shapley Value and its desired properties are leveraged in deep MARL to credit any combinations of agents, which grants us the capability to estimate the individual credit for each agent. Despite this capability, the main technical difficulty lies in the computational complexity of Shapley Value who grows factorially as the number of agents. We instead utilize an approximation method via Monte Carlo sampling, which reduces the sample complexity while maintaining its effectiveness. We evaluate our method on StarCraft II benchmarks across different scenarios. Our method outperforms existing cooperative MARL algorithms significantly and achieves the state-of-the-art, with especially large margins on tasks with more severe difficulties.

Maximising a cumulative reward function that is Markov and stationary, i.e., defined over state-action pairs and independent of time, is sufficient to capture many kinds of goals in a Markov Decision Process (MDP) based on the Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem formulation. However, not all goals can be captured in this manner. Specifically, it is easy to see that Convex MDPs in which goals are expressed as convex functions of stationary distributions cannot, in general, be formulated in this manner. In this paper, we reformulate the convex MDP problem as a min-max game between the policy and cost (negative reward) players using Fenchel duality and propose a meta-algorithm for solving it. We show that the average of the policies produced by an RL agent that maximizes the non-stationary reward produced by the cost player converges to an optimal solution to the convex MDP. Finally, we show that the meta-algorithm unifies several disparate branches of reinforcement learning algorithms in the literature, such as apprenticeship learning, variational intrinsic control, constrained MDPs, and pure exploration into a single framework.

Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto], Portuguese [Auto]Preview this Course - GET COUPON CODE The Hidden Markov Model or HMM is all about learning sequences. A lot of the data that would be very useful for us to model is in sequences. Stock prices are sequences of prices. Language is a sequence of words. Credit scoring involves sequences of borrowing and repaying money, and we can use those sequences to predict whether or not you're going to default.

Decision-making policies for agents are often synthesized with the constraint that a formal specification of behaviour is satisfied. Here we focus on infinite-horizon properties. On the one hand, Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) is a popular example of a formalism for qualitative specifications. On the other hand, Steady-State Policy Synthesis (SSPS) has recently received considerable attention as it provides a more quantitative and more behavioural perspective on specifications, in terms of the frequency with which states are visited. Finally, rewards provide a classic framework for quantitative properties. In this paper, we study Markov decision processes (MDP) with the specification combining all these three types. The derived policy maximizes the reward among all policies ensuring the LTL specification with the given probability and adhering to the steady-state constraints. To this end, we provide a unified solution reducing the multi-type specification to a multi-dimensional long-run average reward. This is enabled by Limit-Deterministic B\"uchi Automata (LDBA), recently studied in the context of LTL model checking on MDP, and allows for an elegant solution through a simple linear programme. The algorithm also extends to the general $\omega$-regular properties and runs in time polynomial in the sizes of the MDP as well as the LDBA.

In machine learning we often encounter structured output prediction problems (SOPPs), i.e. problems where the output space admits a rich internal structure. Application domains where SOPPs naturally occur include natural language processing, speech recognition, and computer vision. Typical SOPPs have an extremely large label set, which grows exponentially as a function of the size of the output. Existing generalization analysis implies generalization bounds with at least a square-root dependency on the cardinality $d$ of the label set, which can be vacuous in practice. In this paper, we significantly improve the state of the art by developing novel high-probability bounds with a logarithmic dependency on $d$. Moreover, we leverage the lens of algorithmic stability to develop generalization bounds in expectation without any dependency on $d$. Our results therefore build a solid theoretical foundation for learning in large-scale SOPPs. Furthermore, we extend our results to learning with weakly dependent data.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC). However, when MCMC is used for evolutionary parameter learning, convergence requires long runs with inefficient exploration of the state space. We introduce Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC), a powerful framework that establishes variational sequential search to learn distributions over intricate combinatorial structures. We then develop nested CSMC, an efficient proposal distribution for CSMC and prove that nested CSMC is an exact approximation to the (intractable) locally optimal proposal. We use nested CSMC to define a second objective, VNCSMC which yields tighter lower bounds than VCSMC. We show that VCSMC and VNCSMC are computationally efficient and explore higher probability spaces than existing methods on a range of tasks.

The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities % and solutions which can help to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage (LV), localised networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known LV level open datasets to encourage further research and development.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are notoriously hard to solve. Most advanced state-of-the-art online solvers leverage ideas of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). These solvers rapidly converge to the most promising branches of the belief tree, avoiding the suboptimal sections. Most of these algorithms are designed to utilize straightforward access to the state reward and assume the belief-dependent reward is nothing but expectation over the state reward. Thus, they are inapplicable to a more general and essential setting of belief-dependent rewards. One example of such reward is differential entropy approximated using a set of weighted particles of the belief. Such an information-theoretic reward introduces a significant computational burden. In this paper, we embed the paradigm of simplification into the MCTS algorithm. In particular, we present Simplified Information-Theoretic Particle Filter Tree (SITH-PFT), a novel variant to the MCTS algorithm that considers information-theoretic rewards but avoids the need to calculate them completely. We replace the costly calculation of information-theoretic rewards with adaptive upper and lower bounds. These bounds are easy to calculate and tightened only by the demand of our algorithm. Crucially, we guarantee precisely the same belief tree and solution that would be obtained by MCTS, which explicitly calculates the original information-theoretic rewards. Our approach is general; namely, any converging to the reward bounds can be easily plugged-in to achieve substantial speedup without any loss in performance.

We posit a new mechanism for cooperation in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) based upon any nonlinear function of the team's long-term state-action occupancy measure, i.e., a \emph{general utility}. This subsumes the cumulative return but also allows one to incorporate risk-sensitivity, exploration, and priors. % We derive the {\bf D}ecentralized {\bf S}hadow Reward {\bf A}ctor-{\bf C}ritic (DSAC) in which agents alternate between policy evaluation (critic), weighted averaging with neighbors (information mixing), and local gradient updates for their policy parameters (actor). DSAC augments the classic critic step by requiring agents to (i) estimate their local occupancy measure in order to (ii) estimate the derivative of the local utility with respect to their occupancy measure, i.e., the "shadow reward". DSAC converges to $\epsilon$-stationarity in $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^{2.5})$ (Theorem \ref{theorem:final}) or faster $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^{2})$ (Corollary \ref{corollary:communication}) steps with high probability, depending on the amount of communications. We further establish the non-existence of spurious stationary points for this problem, that is, DSAC finds the globally optimal policy (Corollary \ref{corollary:global}). Experiments demonstrate the merits of goals beyond the cumulative return in cooperative MARL.