Markov Models
Toward Interpretable Evaluation Measures for Time Series Segmentation
Time series segmentation is a fundamental task in analyzing temporal data across various domains, from human activity recognition to energy monitoring. While numerous state-of-the-art methods have been developed to tackle this problem, the evaluation of their performance remains critically limited. Existing measures predominantly focus on change point accuracy or rely on point-based measures such as Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), which fail to capture the quality of the detected segments, ignore the nature of errors, and offer limited interpretability. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by introducing two novel evaluation measures: WARI (Weighted Adjusted Rand Index), that accounts for the position of segmentation errors, and SMS (State Matching Score), a fine-grained measure that identifies and scores four fundamental types of segmentation errors while allowing error-specific weighting. We empirically validate WARI and SMS on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that they not only provide a more accurate assessment of segmentation quality but also uncover insights, such as error provenance and type, that are inaccessible with traditional measures.
MLE-Dojo: Interactive Environments for Empowering LLMAgents in Machine Learning Engineering
We introduce MLE-Dojo, a Gym-style framework for systematically reinforcement learning, evaluating, and improving autonomous large language model (LLM) agents in iterative machine learning engineering (MLE) workflows. Unlike existing benchmarks that primarily rely on static datasets or single-attempt evaluations, MLE-Dojoprovides an interactive environment enabling agents to iteratively experiment, debug, and refine solutions through structured feedback loops. Built upon 200+ real-world Kaggle challenges, MLE-Dojocovers diverse, open-ended MLE tasks carefully curated to reflect realistic engineering scenarios such as data processing, architecture search, hyperparameter tuning, and code debugging. Its fully executable environment supports comprehensive agent training via both supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, facilitating iterative experimentation, realistic data sampling, and real-time outcome verification. Extensive evaluations of eight frontier LLMs reveal that while current models achieve meaningful iterative improvements, they still exhibit significant limitations in autonomously generating long-horizon solutions and efficiently resolving complex errors.
PhysVLM-AVR: Active Visual Reasoning for Multimodal Large Language Models in Physical Environments
Visual reasoning in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has primarily been studied in static, fully observable settings, limiting their effectiveness in real-world environments where information is often incomplete due to occlusion or limited field of view. Humans, in contrast, actively explore and interact with their environment--moving, examining, and manipulating objects--to gather information through a closed-loop process integrating perception, reasoning, and action. Inspired by this human capability, we introduce the Active Visual Reasoning (AVR) task, extending visual reasoning to partially observable, interactive environments. AVR necessitates agents to: (1) actively acquire information via sequential physical actions, (2) integrate observations across multiple steps for coherent reasoning, and (3) dynamically adjust decisions based on evolving visual feedback. To rigorously evaluate AVR, we introduce CLEVR-AVR, a simulation benchmark featuring multi-round interactive environments designed to assess both reasoning correctness and information-gathering efficiency. We present AVR-152k, a large-scale dataset offers rich Chain-of-Thought (CoT) annotations detailing iterative reasoning for uncertainty identification, action-conditioned information gain prediction, and information-maximizing action selection, crucial for training agents in a higher-order Markov Decision Process. Building on this, we develop PhysVLM-AVR, an MLLM achieving state-of-the-art performance on CLEVR-AVR, embodied reasoning (OpenEQA, RoboVQA), and passive visual reasoning (GeoMath, Geometry30K). Our analysis also reveals that current embodied MLLMs, despite detecting information incompleteness, struggle to actively acquire and integrate new information through interaction, highlighting a fundamental gap in active reasoning capabilities.
ESCA: Contextualizing Embodied Agents via Scene-Graph Generation
Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) are making rapid progress toward general-purpose embodied agents. However, existing MLLMs do not reliably capture fine-grained links between low-level visual features and high-level textual semantics, leading to weak grounding and inaccurate perception. To overcome this challenge, we propose ESCA, a framework that contextualizes embodied agents by grounding their perception in spatial-temporal scene graphs. At its core is SGClip, a novel, open-domain, promptable foundation model for generating scene graphs that is based on CLIP. SGClip is trained on 87K+ open-domain videos using a neurosymbolic pipeline that aligns automatically generated captions with scene graphs produced by the model itself, eliminating the need for human-labeled annotations. We demonstrate that SGClip excels in both prompt-based inference and task-specific fine-tuning, achieving state-of-the-art results on scene graph generation and action localization benchmarks. ESCA with SGClip improves perception for embodied agents based on both open-source and commercial MLLMs, achieving state of-the-art performance across two embodied environments. Notably, ESCA significantly reduces agent perception errors and enables open-source models to surpass proprietary baselines.
VAGEN: Reinforcing World Model Reasoning for Multi-Turn VLM Agents
A major challenge in training VLM agents, compared to LLM agents, is that states shift from simple texts to complex visual observations, which introduces partial observability and demands robust world modeling. We ask: can VLM agents build internal world models through explicit visual state reasoning? In this work, we architecturally enforce and reward VLM agent's reasoning process via reinforcement learning (RL), formulating the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We demonstrate that structuring agent's reasoning into StateEstimation ("what is the current state?") and TransitionModeling ("what is next?") is critical by studying five reasoning strategies. Investigating how agents should ground visual states and represent these internal beliefs, we reveal the optimal representations are task-dependent: Natural Language excels at capturing semantic relationships for general tasks, while Structured formats are essential for high-precision manipulation. These insights motivate our approach to reward shaping and credit assignment. We leverage a WorldModeling Reward to densely rewards the agent's turn-by-turn state predictions, while our Bi-Level General Advantage Estimation (Bi-Level GAE) enables turn-aware credit assignment. Through such world model reasoning, we enable a 3B model to achieve performance of 0.82 on a set of five diverse agent tasks, nearly 3 improvement over its untrained counterpart (0.21) and surpassing proprietary reasoning models like GPT-5 (0.75), Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.67) and Claude 4.5 (0.62).
Sequence Modeling with Spectral Mean Flows
A key question in sequence modeling with neural networks is how to represent and learn highly nonlinear and probabilistic state dynamics. Operator theory views such dynamics as linear maps on Hilbert spaces containing mean embedding vectors of distributions, offering an appealing but currently overlooked perspective. We propose a new approach to sequence modeling based on an operator-theoretic view of a hidden Markov model (HMM).
Scalable Policy-Based RL Algorithms for POMDPs
The continuous nature of belief states in POMDPs presents significant computational challenges in learning the optimal policy. In this paper, we consider an approach that solves a Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning (PORL) problem by approximating the corresponding POMDP model into a finite-state Markov Decision Process (MDP) (called Superstate MDP). We first derive theoretical guarantees that improve upon prior work that relate the optimal value function of the transformed Superstate MDP to the optimal value function of the original POMDP. Next, we propose a policy-based learning approach with linear function approximation to learn the optimal policy for the Superstate MDP. Consequently, our approach shows that a POMDP can be approximately solved using TD-learning followed by Policy Optimization by treating it as an MDP, where the MDP state corresponds to a finite history. We show that the approximation error decreases exponentially with the length of this history. To the best of our knowledge, our finite-time bounds are the first to explicitly quantify the error introduced when applying standard TD learning to a setting where the true dynamics are not Markovian.
ESCORT: Efficient Stein-variational and Sliced Consistency-Optimized Temporal Belief Representation for POMDPs
In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced Consistency-Optimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.