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 Markov Models


Full Characterization of Adaptively Strong Majority Voting in Crowdsourcing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A commonly used technique for quality control in crowdsourcing is to task the workers with examining an item and voting on whether the item is labeled correctly. To counteract possible noise in worker responses, one solution is to keep soliciting votes from more workers until the difference between the numbers of votes for the two possible outcomes exceeds a pre-specified threshold {\delta}. We show a way to model such {\delta}-margin voting consensus aggregation process using absorbing Markov chains. We provide closed-form equations for the key properties of this voting process -- namely, for the quality of the results, the expected number of votes to completion, the variance of the required number of votes, and other moments of the distribution. Using these results, we show further that one can adapt the value of the threshold {\delta} to achieve quality-equivalence across voting processes that employ workers of different accuracy levels. We then use this result to provide efficiency-equalizing payment rates for groups of workers characterized by different levels of response accuracy. Finally, we perform a set of simulated experiments using both fully synthetic data as well as real-life crowdsourced votes. We show that our theoretical model characterizes the outcomes of the consensus aggregation process well.


A Time-Series Scale Mixture Model of EEG with a Hidden Markov Structure for Epileptic Seizure Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we propose a time-series stochastic model based on a scale mixture distribution with Markov transitions to detect epileptic seizures in electroencephalography (EEG). In the proposed model, an EEG signal at each time point is assumed to be a random variable following a Gaussian distribution. The covariance matrix of the Gaussian distribution is weighted with a latent scale parameter, which is also a random variable, resulting in the stochastic fluctuations of covariances. By introducing a latent state variable with a Markov chain in the background of this stochastic relationship, time-series changes in the distribution of latent scale parameters can be represented according to the state of epileptic seizures. In an experiment, we evaluated the performance of the proposed model for seizure detection using EEGs with multiple frequency bands decomposed from a clinical dataset. The results demonstrated that the proposed model can detect seizures with high sensitivity and outperformed several baselines.


Agent Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exploration is one of the most important tasks in Reinforcement Learning, but it is not well-defined beyond finite problems in the Dynamic Programming paradigm (see Subsection 2.4). We provide a reinterpretation of exploration which can be applied to any online learning method. We come to this definition by approaching exploration from a new direction. After finding that concepts of exploration created to solve simple Markov decision processes with Dynamic Programming are no longer broadly applicable, we reexamine exploration. Instead of extending the ends of dynamic exploration procedures, we extend their means. That is, rather than repeatedly sampling every state-action pair possible in a process, we define the act of modifying an agent to itself be explorative. The resulting definition of exploration can be applied in infinite problems and non-dynamic learning methods, which the dynamic notion of exploration cannot tolerate. To understand the way that modifications of an agent affect learning, we describe a novel structure on the set of agents: a collection of distances (see footnote 7) $d_{a} \in A$, which represent the perspectives of each agent possible in the process. Using these distances, we define a topology and show that many important structures in Reinforcement Learning are well behaved under the topology induced by convergence in the agent space.


Cross-language Information Retrieval

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two key assumptions shape the usual view of ranked retrieval: (1) that the searcher can choose words for their query that might appear in the documents that they wish to see, and (2) that ranking retrieved documents will suffice because the searcher will be able to recognize those which they wished to find. When the documents to be searched are in a language not known by the searcher, neither assumption is true. In such cases, Cross-Language Information Retrieval (CLIR) is needed. This chapter reviews the state of the art for cross-language information retrieval and outlines some open research questions.


Spatio-Temporal Urban Knowledge Graph Enabled Mobility Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid development of the mobile communication technology, mobile trajectories of humans are massively collected by Internet service providers (ISPs) and application service providers (ASPs). On the other hand, the rising paradigm of knowledge graph (KG) provides us a promising solution to extract structured "knowledge" from massive trajectory data. In this paper, we focus on modeling users' spatio-temporal mobility patterns based on knowledge graph techniques, and predicting users' future movement based on the "knowledge'' extracted from multiple sources in a cohesive manner. Specifically, we propose a new type of knowledge graph, i.e., spatio-temporal urban knowledge graph (STKG), where mobility trajectories, category information of venues, and temporal information are jointly modeled by the facts with different relation types in STKG. The mobility prediction problem is converted to the knowledge graph completion problem in STKG. Further, a complex embedding model with elaborately designed scoring functions is proposed to measure the plausibility of facts in STKG to solve the knowledge graph completion problem, which considers temporal dynamics of the mobility patterns and utilizes PoI categories as the auxiliary information and background knowledge. Extensive evaluations confirm the high accuracy of our model in predicting users' mobility, i.e., improving the accuracy by 5.04% compared with the state-of-the-art algorithms. In addition, PoI categories as the background knowledge and auxiliary information are confirmed to be helpful by improving the performance by 3.85% in terms of accuracy. Additionally, experiments show that our proposed method is time-efficient by reducing the computational time by over 43.12% compared with existing methods.


BEGINNERS' GLOSSERY OF AI

#artificialintelligence

My old account got hacked and it can't be accessed now. Machine Learning (ML) is a convenient way to describe classes of algorithms that are used to gain insight into data in a way that allows a certain amount self-instruction which, if properly designed & trained, achieves a robustness to changes in initial conditions that are lacking in other types of analytic methods. Regression is a general term describing a model that explicitly defines a relationship between features of interest and a target. The term is most often used when the target is a continuous numeric dependent variable. Deep learning is a subset of ML approaches.


Regular Decision Processes for Grid Worlds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov decision processes are typically used for sequential decision making under uncertainty. For many aspects however, ranging from constrained or safe specifications to various kinds of temporal (non-Markovian) dependencies in task and reward structures, extensions are needed. To that end, in recent years interest has grown into combinations of reinforcement learning and temporal logic, that is, combinations of flexible behavior learning methods with robust verification and guarantees. In this paper we describe an experimental investigation of the recently introduced regular decision processes that support both non-Markovian reward functions as well as transition functions. In particular, we provide a tool chain for regular decision processes, algorithmic extensions relating to online, incremental learning, an empirical evaluation of model-free and model-based solution algorithms, and applications in regular, but non-Markovian, grid worlds.


DSBERT:Unsupervised Dialogue Structure learning with BERT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unsupervised dialogue structure learning is an important and meaningful task in natural language processing. The extracted dialogue structure and process can help analyze human dialogue, and play a vital role in the design and evaluation of dialogue systems. The traditional dialogue system requires experts to manually design the dialogue structure, which is very costly. But through unsupervised dialogue structure learning, dialogue structure can be automatically obtained, reducing the cost of developers constructing dialogue process. The learned dialogue structure can be used to promote the dialogue generation of the downstream task system, and improve the logic and consistency of the dialogue robot's reply.In this paper, we propose a Bert-based unsupervised dialogue structure learning algorithm DSBERT (Dialogue Structure BERT). Different from the previous SOTA models VRNN and SVRNN, we combine BERT and AutoEncoder, which can effectively combine context information. In order to better prevent the model from falling into the local optimal solution and make the dialogue state distribution more uniform and reasonable, we also propose three balanced loss functions that can be used for dialogue structure learning. Experimental results show that DSBERT can generate a dialogue structure closer to the real structure, can distinguish sentences with different semantics and map them to different hidden states.


Modelling and Optimisation of Resource Usage in an IoT Enabled Smart Campus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilised efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organisations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory.


Exponential Bellman Equation and Improved Regret Bounds for Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) based on the entropic risk measure. Although existing works have established non-asymptotic regret guarantees for this problem, they leave open an exponential gap between the upper and lower bounds. We identify the deficiencies in existing algorithms and their analysis that result in such a gap. To remedy these deficiencies, we investigate a simple transformation of the risk-sensitive Bellman equations, which we call the exponential Bellman equation. The exponential Bellman equation inspires us to develop a novel analysis of Bellman backup procedures in risk-sensitive RL algorithms, and further motivates the design of a novel exploration mechanism. We show that these analytic and algorithmic innovations together lead to improved regret upper bounds over existing ones.