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 Markov Models


What is Event Knowledge Graph: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Besides entity-centric knowledge, usually organized as Knowledge Graph (KG), events are also an essential kind of knowledge in the world, which trigger the spring up of event-centric knowledge representation form like Event KG (EKG). It plays an increasingly important role in many machine learning and artificial intelligence applications, such as intelligent search, question-answering, recommendation, and text generation. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of EKG from history, ontology, instance, and application views. Specifically, to characterize EKG thoroughly, we focus on its history, definitions, schema induction, acquisition, related representative graphs/systems, and applications. The development processes and trends are studied therein. We further summarize perspective directions to facilitate future research on EKG.


On some Foundational Aspects of Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The burgeoning of AI has prompted recommendations that AI techniques should be "human-centered". However, there is no clear definition of what is meant by Human Centered Artificial Intelligence, or for short, HCAI. This paper aims to improve this situation by addressing some foundational aspects of HCAI. To do so, we introduce the term HCAI agent to refer to any physical or software computational agent equipped with AI components and that interacts and/or collaborates with humans. This article identifies five main conceptual components that participate in an HCAI agent: Observations, Requirements, Actions, Explanations and Models. We see the notion of HCAI agent, together with its components and functions, as a way to bridge the technical and non-technical discussions on human-centered AI. In this paper, we focus our analysis on scenarios consisting of a single agent operating in dynamic environments in presence of humans.


Time varying regression with hidden linear dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The distribution of labels given the covariates changes over time in a variety of applications of regression. Some example domains where such problems arise include economics, marketing, fashion, and supply chain optimization, where market properties evolve over time. Motivated by such problems, we revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. One way to account for distribution change in linear regression is to assume that the unknown model parameters change slowly with time [2, 15, 37]. While this assumption simplifies the problem and makes it tractable, it misses on exploiting additional structure available and it also fails to model periodicity (e.g., due to seasonality) present in some problems. As an alternative, we are interested in a dynamic model previously studied by Chow [7], Carraro [5], and Shumway et al. [26].


Monte Carlo EM for Deep Time Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series data are often corrupted by outliers or other kinds of anomalies. Identifying the anomalous points can be a goal on its own (anomaly detection), or a means to improving performance of other time series tasks (e.g. forecasting). Recent deep-learning-based approaches to anomaly detection and forecasting commonly assume that the proportion of anomalies in the training data is small enough to ignore, and treat the unlabeled data as coming from the nominal data distribution. We present a simple yet effective technique for augmenting existing time series models so that they explicitly account for anomalies in the training data. By augmenting the training data with a latent anomaly indicator variable whose distribution is inferred while training the underlying model using Monte Carlo EM, our method simultaneously infers anomalous points while improving model performance on nominal data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by combining it with a simple feed-forward forecasting model. We investigate how anomalies in the train set affect the training of forecasting models, which are commonly used for time series anomaly detection, and show that our method improves the training of the model.


Dynamic programming with partial information to overcome navigational uncertainty in a nautical environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In an MDP, the state of the system is known, however, Uncertainty creates a major obstacle in solving control in a POMDP it must be estimated, leading to some problems. The goal of these problems is to construct a policy amount of uncertainty. Much of the difficulty in solving that is expected to produce optimal trajectories. In some a POMDP stems from estimating the state of the system cases, uncertainty only causes deviations from the optimal before choosing an action. This is where the majority of trajectory, which may still result in an acceptable solution.


Learning Based Task Offloading in Digital Twin Empowered Internet of Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mobile edge computing has become an effective and fundamental paradigm for futuristic autonomous vehicles to offload computing tasks. However, due to the high mobility of vehicles, the dynamics of the wireless conditions, and the uncertainty of the arrival computing tasks, it is difficult for a single vehicle to determine the optimal offloading strategy. In this paper, we propose a Digital Twin (DT) empowered task offloading framework for Internet of Vehicles. As a software agent residing in the cloud, a DT can obtain both global network information by using communications among DTs, and historical information of a vehicle by using the communications within the twin. The global network information and historical vehicular information can significantly facilitate the offloading. In specific, to preserve the precious computing resource at different levels for most appropriate computing tasks, we integrate a learning scheme based on the prediction of futuristic computing tasks in DT. Accordingly, we model the offloading scheduling process as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to minimize the long-term cost in terms of a trade off between task latency, energy consumption, and renting cost of clouds. Simulation results demonstrate that our algorithm can effectively find the optimal offloading strategy, as well as achieve the fast convergence speed and high performance, compared with other existing approaches.


Exponential Family Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Score Matching

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper studies the regret minimization problem for finite horizon, episodic reinforcement learning (RL) with infinitely large state and action spaces. Empirically, RL has achieved success in diverse domains, even when the problem size (measured in the number of states and actions) explodes [35, 44, 28]. The key to developing sample-efficient algorithms is to leverage function approximation, enabling us to generalize across different state-action pairs. Much theoretical progress has been made towards understanding function approximation in RL. Existing theory typically requires strong linearity assumptions on transition dynamics [e.g., 55, 26, 10, 36] or action-value functions [e.g., 30, 57] of the Markov Decision Process (MDP). However, most real world problems are nonlinear, and our theoretical understanding of these settings remains limited. Thus, we ask the question: Can we design provably efficient RL algorithms in nonlinear environments? Recently, Chowdhury et al. [13] introduced a nonlinear setting where the state-transition measures are finitely parameterized exponential family models, and they proposed to estimate model parameters via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The exponential family is a well-studied and powerful statistical framework, so it is a natural model class to consider beyond linear models.


Efficient Performance Bounds for Primal-Dual Reinforcement Learning from Demonstrations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider large-scale Markov decision processes with an unknown cost function and address the problem of learning a policy from a finite set of expert demonstrations. We assume that the learner is not allowed to interact with the expert and has no access to reinforcement signal of any kind. Existing inverse reinforcement learning methods come with strong theoretical guarantees, but are computationally expensive, while state-of-the-art policy optimization algorithms achieve significant empirical success, but are hampered by limited theoretical understanding. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we introduce a novel bilinear saddle-point framework using Lagrangian duality. The proposed primal-dual viewpoint allows us to develop a model-free provably efficient algorithm through the lens of stochastic convex optimization. The method enjoys the advantages of simplicity of implementation, low memory requirements, and computational and sample complexities independent of the number of states. We further present an equivalent no-regret online-learning interpretation.


The Statistical Complexity of Interactive Decision Making

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A fundamental challenge in interactive learning and decision making, ranging from bandit problems to reinforcement learning, is to provide sample-efficient, adaptive learning algorithms that achieve near-optimal regret. This question is analogous to the classical problem of optimal (supervised) statistical learning, where there are well-known complexity measures (e.g., VC dimension and Rademacher complexity) that govern the statistical complexity of learning. However, characterizing the statistical complexity of interactive learning is substantially more challenging due to the adaptive nature of the problem. The main result of this work provides a complexity measure, the Decision-Estimation Coefficient, that is proven to be both necessary and sufficient for sample-efficient interactive learning. In particular, we provide: 1. a lower bound on the optimal regret for any interactive decision making problem, establishing the Decision-Estimation Coefficient as a fundamental limit. 2. a unified algorithm design principle, Estimation-to-Decisions (E2D), which transforms any algorithm for supervised estimation into an online algorithm for decision making. E2D attains a regret bound matching our lower bound, thereby achieving optimal sample-efficient learning as characterized by the Decision-Estimation Coefficient. Taken together, these results constitute a theory of learnability for interactive decision making. When applied to reinforcement learning settings, the Decision-Estimation Coefficient recovers essentially all existing hardness results and lower bounds. More broadly, the approach can be viewed as a decision-theoretic analogue of the classical Le Cam theory of statistical estimation; it also unifies a number of existing approaches -- both Bayesian and frequentist.


Abstractions of General Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) is devoted to the creation of artificial decision-makers that can perform (at least) on par with the human counterparts on a domain of interest. Unlike the agents in traditional AI, the agents in artificial general intelligence (AGI) are required to replicate human intelligence in almost every domain of interest. Moreover, an AGI agent should be able to achieve this without (virtually any) further changes, retraining, or fine-tuning of the parameters. The real world is non-stationary, non-ergodic, and non-Markovian: we, humans, can neither revisit our past nor are the most recent observations sufficient statistics. Yet, we excel at a variety of complex tasks. Many of these tasks require longterm planning. We can associate this success to our natural faculty to abstract away task-irrelevant information from our overwhelming sensory experience. We make task-specific mental models of the world without much effort. Due to this ability to abstract, we can plan on a significantly compact representation of a task without much loss of performance. Not only this, we also abstract our actions to produce high-level plans: the level of action-abstraction can be anywhere between small muscle movements to a mental notion of "doing an action". It is natural to assume that any AGI agent competing with humans (at every plausible domain) should also have these abilities to abstract its experiences and actions. This thesis is an inquiry into the existence of such abstractions which aid efficient planing for a wide range of domains, and most importantly, these abstractions come with some optimality guarantees.