Graphical models in probability and statistics are a core concept in the area of probabilistic reasoning and probabilistic programming-graphical models include Bayesian networks and factor graphs. In this paper we develop a new model of mixed (nondeterministic/probabilistic) automata that subsumes both nondeterministic automata and graphical probabilistic models. Mixed Automata are equipped with parallel composition, simulation relation, and support message passing algorithms inherited from graphical probabilistic models. Segala's Probabilistic Automatacan be mapped to Mixed Automata.

Research on both natural intelligence (NI) and artificial intelligence (AI) generally assumes that the future resembles the past: intelligent agents or systems (what we call 'intelligence') observe and act on the world, then use this experience to act on future experiences of the same kind. We call this 'retrospective learning'. For example, an intelligence may see a set of pictures of objects, along with their names, and learn to name them. A retrospective learning intelligence would merely be able to name more pictures of the same objects. We argue that this is not what true intelligence is about. In many real world problems, both NIs and AIs will have to learn for an uncertain future. Both must update their internal models to be useful for future tasks, such as naming fundamentally new objects and using these objects effectively in a new context or to achieve previously unencountered goals. This ability to learn for the future we call 'prospective learning'. We articulate four relevant factors that jointly define prospective learning. Continual learning enables intelligences to remember those aspects of the past which it believes will be most useful in the future. Prospective constraints (including biases and priors) facilitate the intelligence finding general solutions that will be applicable to future problems. Curiosity motivates taking actions that inform future decision making, including in previously unmet situations. Causal estimation enables learning the structure of relations that guide choosing actions for specific outcomes, even when the specific action-outcome contingencies have never been observed before. We argue that a paradigm shift from retrospective to prospective learning will enable the communities that study intelligence to unite and overcome existing bottlenecks to more effectively explain, augment, and engineer intelligences.

Learning informative representations from image-based observations is of fundamental concern in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, data-inefficiency remains a significant barrier to this objective. To overcome this obstacle, we propose to accelerate state representation learning by enforcing view-consistency on the dynamics. Firstly, we introduce a formalism of Multi-view Markov Decision Process (MMDP) that incorporates multiple views of the state. Following the structure of MMDP, our method, View-Consistent Dynamics (VCD), learns state representations by training a view-consistent dynamics model in the latent space, where views are generated by applying data augmentation to states. Empirical evaluation on DeepMind Control Suite and Atari-100k demonstrates VCD to be the SoTA data-efficient algorithm on visual control tasks.

Human infants acquire their verbal lexicon from minimal prior knowledge of language based on the statistical properties of phonological distributions and the co-occurrence of other sensory stimuli. In this study, we propose a novel fully unsupervised learning method discovering speech units by utilizing phonological information as a distributional cue and object information as a co-occurrence cue. The proposed method can not only (1) acquire words and phonemes from speech signals using unsupervised learning, but can also (2) utilize object information based on multiple modalities (i.e., vision, tactile, and auditory) simultaneously. The proposed method is based on the Nonparametric Bayesian Double Articulation Analyzer (NPB-DAA) discovering phonemes and words from phonological features, and Multimodal Latent Dirichlet Allocation (MLDA) categorizing multimodal information obtained from objects. In the experiment, the proposed method showed higher word discovery performance than the baseline methods. In particular, words that expressed the characteristics of the object (i.e., words corresponding to nouns and adjectives) were segmented accurately. Furthermore, we examined how learning performance is affected by differences in the importance of linguistic information. When the weight of the word modality was increased, the performance was further improved compared to the fixed condition.

We study the global convergence of policy gradient for infinite-horizon, continuous state and action space, entropy-regularized Markov decision processes (MDPs). We consider a softmax policy with (one-hidden layer) neural network approximation in a mean-field regime. Additional entropic regularization in the associated mean-field probability measure is added, and the corresponding gradient flow is studied in the 2-Wasserstein metric. We show that the objective function is increasing along the gradient flow. Further, we prove that if the regularization in terms of the mean-field measure is sufficient, the gradient flow converges exponentially fast to the unique stationary solution, which is the unique maximizer of the regularized MDP objective. Lastly, we study the sensitivity of the value function along the gradient flow with respect to regularization parameters and the initial condition. Our results rely on the careful analysis of non-linear Fokker--Planck--Kolmogorov equation and extend the pioneering work of Mei et al. 2020 and Agarwal et al. 2020, which quantify the global convergence rate of policy gradient for entropy-regularized MDPs in the tabular setting.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) approach to compute the expression of quasi-stationary distribution. Based on the fixed-point formulation of quasi-stationary distribution, we minimize the KL-divergence of two Markovian path distributions induced by the candidate distribution and the true target distribution. To solve this challenging minimization problem by gradient descent, we apply the reinforcement learning technique by introducing the reward and value functions. We derive the corresponding policy gradient theorem and design an actor-critic algorithm to learn the optimal solution and the value function. The numerical examples of finite state Markov chain are tested to demonstrate the new method.

While such single-timestep explanations produce valuable insight, they lack any representation We introduce a data-driven, model-agnostic technique of the dynamics that differentiate control from other learning for generating a human-interpretable summary domains. A complementary direction for explaining agent of the salient points of contrast within an behaviour would be to facilitate human understanding of the evolving dynamical system, such as the learning dynamics over two timescales: (1) short-term sequences of process of a control agent. It involves the aggregation state transitions ("when you go here, what happens next?") of transition data along both spatial and and (2) long-term trends in policy evolution ("what did you temporal dimensions according to an informationtheoretic do in the past, and when, how and why did that change?").

In a cooperative multiagent system, a collection of agents executes a joint policy in order to achieve some common objective. The successful deployment of such systems hinges on the availability of reliable inter-agent communication. However, many sources of potential disruption to communication exist in practice, such as radio interference, hardware failure, and adversarial attacks. In this work, we develop joint policies for cooperative multiagent systems that are robust to potential losses in communication. More specifically, we develop joint policies for cooperative Markov games with reach-avoid objectives. First, we propose an algorithm for the decentralized execution of joint policies during periods of communication loss. Next, we use the total correlation of the state-action process induced by a joint policy as a measure of the intrinsic dependencies between the agents. We then use this measure to lower-bound the performance of a joint policy when communication is lost. Finally, we present an algorithm that maximizes a proxy to this lower bound in order to synthesize minimum-dependency joint policies that are robust to communication loss. Numerical experiments show that the proposed minimum-dependency policies require minimal coordination between the agents while incurring little to no loss in performance; the total correlation value of the synthesized policy is one fifth of the total correlation value of the baseline policy which does not take potential communication losses into account. As a result, the performance of the minimum-dependency policies remains consistently high regardless of whether or not communication is available. By contrast, the performance of the baseline policy decreases by twenty percent when communication is lost.

As a measure of the long-term contribution produced by customers in a service or product relationship, life-time value, or LTV, can more comprehensively find the optimal strategy for service delivery. However, it is challenging to accurately abstract the LTV scene, model it reasonably, and find the optimal solution. The current theories either cannot precisely express LTV because of the single modeling structure, or there is no efficient solution. We propose a general LTV modeling method, which solves the problem that customers' long-term contribution is difficult to quantify while existing methods, such as modeling the click-through rate, only pursue the short-term contribution. At the same time, we also propose a fast dynamic programming solution based on a mutated bisection method and the memoryless repeated experiments assumption. The model and method can be applied to different service scenarios, such as the recommendation system. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the effectiveness of the proposed model and optimization method. In addition, this whole LTV structure was deployed at a large E-commerce mobile phone application, where it managed to select optimal push message sending time and achieved a 10\% LTV improvement.

Voice technology has reached maturity. The quality of speech recognition surpassed 95 percent accuracy in 2020. That is the same quality as normal communication between human beings. And the influence is now being felt. The modern Microsoft Windows update vigorously pushes its voice feature -- a mechanism that allows the user to dictate messages at the speed of normal speech, which is four times faster than typing. There are more than 2,600 voice apps (called "skills") available for download on Apple & Google app stores.