Safe exploration is a common problem in reinforcement learning (RL) that aims to prevent agents from making disastrous decisions while exploring their environment. A family of approaches to this problem assume domain knowledge in the form of a (partial) model of this environment to decide upon the safety of an action. A so-called shield forces the RL agent to select only safe actions. However, for adoption in various applications, one must look beyond enforcing safety and also ensure the applicability of RL with good performance. We extend the applicability of shields via tight integration with state-of-the-art deep RL, and provide an extensive, empirical study in challenging, sparse-reward environments under partial observability. We show that a carefully integrated shield ensures safety and can improve the convergence rate and final performance of RL agents. We furthermore show that a shield can be used to bootstrap state-of-the-art RL agents: they remain safe after initial learning in a shielded setting, allowing us to disable a potentially too conservative shield eventually.

Goal-conditioned Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) is a promising approach for scaling up reinforcement learning (RL) techniques. However, it often suffers from training inefficiency as the action space of the high-level, i.e., the goal space, is large. Searching in a large goal space poses difficulty for both high-level subgoal generation and low-level policy learning. In this paper, we show that this problem can be effectively alleviated by restricting the high-level action space from the whole goal space to a $k$-step adjacent region of the current state using an adjacency constraint. We theoretically prove that in a deterministic Markov Decision Process (MDP), the proposed adjacency constraint preserves the optimal hierarchical policy, while in a stochastic MDP the adjacency constraint induces a bounded state-value suboptimality determined by the MDP's transition structure. We further show that this constraint can be practically implemented by training an adjacency network that can discriminate between adjacent and non-adjacent subgoals. Experimental results on discrete and continuous control tasks including challenging simulated robot locomotion and manipulation tasks show that incorporating the adjacency constraint significantly boosts the performance of state-of-the-art goal-conditioned HRL approaches.

In most existing studies on large-scale multi-agent coordination, the control methods aim to learn discrete policies for agents with finite choices. They rarely consider selecting actions directly from continuous action spaces to provide more accurate control, which makes them unsuitable for more complex tasks. To solve the control issue due to large-scale multi-agent systems with continuous action spaces, we propose a novel MARL coordination control method that derives stable continuous policies. By optimizing policies with maximum entropy learning, agents improve their exploration in execution and acquire an excellent performance after training. We also employ hierarchical graph attention networks (HGAT) and gated recurrent units (GRU) to improve the scalability and transferability of our method. The experiments show that our method consistently outperforms all baselines in large-scale multi-agent cooperative reconnaissance tasks.

Early classification algorithms help users react faster to their machine learning model's predictions. Early warning systems in hospitals, for example, let clinicians improve their patients' outcomes by accurately predicting infections. While early classification systems are advancing rapidly, a major gap remains: existing systems do not consider irregular time series, which have uneven and often-long gaps between their observations. Such series are notoriously pervasive in impactful domains like healthcare. We bridge this gap and study early classification of irregular time series, a new setting for early classifiers that opens doors to more real-world problems. Our solution, Stop&Hop, uses a continuous-time recurrent network to model ongoing irregular time series in real time, while an irregularity-aware halting policy, trained with reinforcement learning, predicts when to stop and classify the streaming series. By taking real-valued step sizes, the halting policy flexibly decides exactly when to stop ongoing series in real time. This way, Stop&Hop seamlessly integrates information contained in the timing of observations, a new and vital source for early classification in this setting, with the time series values to provide early classifications for irregular time series. Using four synthetic and three real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Stop&Hop consistently makes earlier and more-accurate predictions than state-of-the-art alternatives adapted to this new problem. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/thartvigsen/StopAndHop.

Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically. This tutorial provides an in-depth introduction to Markov chains, and explores their connection to graphs and random walks. We utilize tools from linear algebra and graph theory to describe the transition matrices of different types of Markov chains, with a particular focus on exploring properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors corresponding to these matrices. The results presented are relevant to a number of methods in machine learning and data mining, which we describe at various stages. Rather than being a novel academic study in its own right, this text presents a collection of known results, together with some new concepts. Moreover, the tutorial focuses on offering intuition to readers rather than formal understanding, and only assumes basic exposure to concepts from linear algebra and probability theory. It is therefore accessible to students and researchers from a wide variety of disciplines.

This paper presents the network load balancing problem, a challenging real-world task for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods. Traditional heuristic solutions like Weighted-Cost Multi-Path (WCMP) and Local Shortest Queue (LSQ) are less flexible to the changing workload distributions and arrival rates, with a poor balance among multiple load balancers. The cooperative network load balancing task is formulated as a Dec-POMDP problem, which naturally induces the MARL methods. To bridge the reality gap for applying learning-based methods, all methods are directly trained and evaluated on an emulation system from moderate-to large-scale. Experiments on realistic testbeds show that the independent and "selfish" load balancing strategies are not necessarily the globally optimal ones, while the proposed MARL solution has a superior performance over different realistic settings. Additionally, the potential difficulties of MARL methods for network load balancing are analysed, which helps to draw the attention of the learning and network communities to such challenges.

Aggregating messages is a key component for the communication of multi-agent reinforcement learning (Comm-MARL). Recently, it has witnessed the prevalence of graph attention networks (GAT) in Comm-MARL, where agents can be represented as nodes and messages can be aggregated via the weighted passing. While successful, GAT can lead to homogeneity in the strategies of message aggregation, and the ``core'' agent may excessively influence other agents' behaviors, which can severely limit the multi-agent coordination. To address this challenge, we first study the adjacency tensor of the communication graph and demonstrate that the homogeneity of message aggregation could be measured by the normalized tensor rank. Since the rank optimization problem is known to be NP-hard, we define a new nuclear norm, which is a convex surrogate of normalized tensor rank, to replace the rank. Leveraging the norm, we further propose a plug-and-play regularizer on the adjacency tensor, named Normalized Tensor Nuclear Norm Regularization (NTNNR), to actively enrich the diversity of message aggregation during the training stage. We extensively evaluate GAT with the proposed regularizer in both cooperative and mixed cooperative-competitive scenarios. The results demonstrate that aggregating messages using NTNNR-enhanced GAT can improve the efficiency of the training and achieve higher asymptotic performance than existing message aggregation methods. When NTNNR is applied to existing graph-attention Comm-MARL methods, we also observe significant performance improvements on the StarCraft II micromanagement benchmarks.

Bonus-Malus Systems (BMSs) are nowadays widely employed in automobile insurance to dynamically adjust a premium based on a customer's claims experience. The intuition behind these posterior ratemaking systems is that as we observe more claiming behavior, we learn more about the underlying risk profile. These systems are therefore a commercially attractive form of experience rating, in which we correct the prior premium for past claims to reflect our updated beliefs about a customer's risk profile. Moreover, they traditionally consider a customer's number of claims irrespective of their sizes and thus implicitly assume independence between the claim counts and sizes (Hey, 1970; Denuit et al., 2007; Boucher and Inoussa, 2014; Verschuren, 2021). Alternative Bayesian forms of experience rating typically depend only on the frequency component as well or consider the two components separately (see, e.g., Denuit and Lang (2004); Bühlmann and Gisler (2005); Mahmoudvand and Hassani (2009); Bermúdez and Karlis (2011, 2017)).

Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are two well known tools for predicting time series. Even though these solutions were developed independently in distinct communities, they share some similarities when considered as probabilistic structures. So in this paper we first consider HMC and RNN as generative models, and we embed both structures in a common generative unified model (GUM). We next address a comparative study of the expressivity of these models. To that end we assume that the models are furthermore linear and Gaussian. The probability distributions produced by these models are characterized by structured covariance series, and as a consequence expressivity reduces to comparing sets of structured covariance series, which enables us to call for stochastic realization theory (SRT). We finally provide conditions under which a given covariance series can be realized by a GUM, an HMC or an RNN.

Your learning system is often called an agent, in most modern literature. This term includes more than just the neural network estimator in recent algorithms. The agent interacts with an environment to solve a task. We'll go into further details later into what constitutes the environment, as it can become problematic. The environment relies on two main components: its transition and reward functions.