Although evaluation of the expectations on the Ising model is essential in various applications, it is mostly infeasible because of intractable multiple summations. Spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI) is a sampling-based approximation. It can provide high-accuracy estimations for such intractable expectations. To evaluate the expectation of a function of variables in a specific region (called target region), SMCI considers a larger region containing the target region (called sum region). In SMCI, the multiple summation for the variables in the sum region is precisely executed, and that in the outer region is evaluated by the sampling approximation such as the standard Monte Carlo integration. It is guaranteed that the accuracy of the SMCI estimator improves monotonically as the size of the sum region increases. However, a haphazard expansion of the sum region could cause a combinatorial explosion. Therefore, we hope to improve the accuracy without such an expansion. In this paper, based on the theory of generalized least squares (GLS), a new effective method is proposed by combining multiple SMCI estimators. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated theoretically and numerically. The results indicate that the proposed method can be effective in the inverse Ising problem (or Boltzmann machine learning).

This paper considers the challenging tasks of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) under partial observability, where each agent only sees her own individual observations and actions that reveal incomplete information about the underlying state of system. This paper studies these tasks under the general model of multiplayer general-sum Partially Observable Markov Games (POMGs), which is significantly larger than the standard model of Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games (IIEFGs). We identify a rich subclass of POMGs -- weakly revealing POMGs -- in which sample-efficient learning is tractable. In the self-play setting, we prove that a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to find approximate Nash equilibria, correlated equilibria, as well as coarse correlated equilibria of weakly revealing POMGs, in a polynomial number of samples when the number of agents is small. In the setting of playing against adversarial opponents, we show that a variant of our optimistic MLE algorithm is capable of achieving sublinear regret when being compared against the optimal maximin policies. To our best knowledge, this work provides the first line of sample-efficient results for learning POMGs.

Dealing with non-stationarity in environments (e.g., in the transition dynamics) and objectives (e.g., in the reward functions) is a challenging problem that is crucial in real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL). While most current approaches model the changes as a single shared embedding vector, we leverage insights from the recent causality literature to model non-stationarity in terms of individual latent change factors, and causal graphs across different environments. In particular, we propose Factored Adaptation for Non-Stationary RL (FANS-RL), a factored adaption approach that learns jointly both the causal structure in terms of a factored MDP, and a factored representation of the individual time-varying change factors. We prove that under standard assumptions, we can completely recover the causal graph representing the factored transition and reward function, as well as a partial structure between the individual change factors and the state components. Through our general framework, we can consider general non-stationary scenarios with different function types and changing frequency, including changes across episodes and within episodes. Experimental results demonstrate that FANS-RL outperforms existing approaches in terms of return, compactness of the latent state representation, and robustness to varying degrees of non-stationarity.

Most previous work in music emotion recognition assumes a single or a few song-level labels for the whole song. While it is known that different emotions can vary in intensity within a song, annotated data for this setup is scarce and difficult to obtain. In this work, we propose a method to predict emotion dynamics in song lyrics without song-level supervision. We frame each song as a time series and employ a State Space Model (SSM), combining a sentence-level emotion predictor with an Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure to generate the full emotion dynamics. Our experiments show that applying our method consistently improves the performance of sentence-level baselines without requiring any annotated songs, making it ideal for limited training data scenarios. Further analysis through case studies shows the benefits of our method while also indicating the limitations and pointing to future directions.

CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a risk metric widely used in finance. However, dynamically optimizing CVaR is difficult since it is not a standard Markov decision process (MDP) and the principle of dynamic programming fails. In this paper, we study the infinite-horizon discrete-time MDP with a long-run CVaR criterion, from the view of sensitivity-based optimization. By introducing a pseudo CVaR metric, we derive a CVaR difference formula which quantifies the difference of long-run CVaR under any two policies. The optimality of deterministic policies is derived. We obtain a so-called Bellman local optimality equation for CVaR, which is a necessary and sufficient condition for local optimal policies and only necessary for global optimal policies. A CVaR derivative formula is also derived for providing more sensitivity information. Then we develop a policy iteration type algorithm to efficiently optimize CVaR, which is shown to converge to local optima in the mixed policy space. We further discuss some extensions including the mean-CVaR optimization and the maximization of CVaR. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments relating to portfolio management to demonstrate the main results. Our work may shed light on dynamically optimizing CVaR from a sensitivity viewpoint.

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show that non-sampling-based latent state inference used in HSMM's can be generalized to latent Continuous-Time semi-Markov Chains (CTSMC's). We formulate integro-differential forward and backward equations adjusted to the observation likelihood and introduce an exact integral equation for the Bayesian posterior marginals and a scalable Viterbi-type algorithm for posterior path estimates. The presented equations can be efficiently solved using well-known numerical methods. As a practical tool, variable-step HSMM's are introduced. We evaluate our approaches in latent state inference scenarios in comparison to classical HSMM's.

Abstract: UNet [27] is widely used in semantic segmentation due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, its manually-designed architecture is applied to a large number of problem settings, either with no architecture optimizations, or with manual tuning, which is time consuming and can be sub-optimal. In this work, firstly, we propose Markov Random Field Neural Architecture Search (MRF-NAS) that extends and improves the recent Adaptive and Optimal Network Width Search (AOWS) method [4] with (i) a more general MRF framework (ii) diverse M-best loopy inference (iii) differentiable parameter learning. This provides the necessary NAS framework to efficiently explore network architectures that induce loopy inference graphs, including loops that arise from skip connections. With UNet as the backbone, we find an architecture, MRF-UNet, that shows several interesting characteristics.

Abstract: he link between Gaussian random fields and Markov random fields is well established based on a stochastic partial differential equation in Euclidean spaces, where the Matérn covariance functions are essential. However, the Matérn covariance functions are not always positive definite on circles and spheres. In this manuscript, we focus on the extension of this link to circles, and show that the link between Gaussian random fields and Markov random fields on circles is valid based on the circular Matérn covariance function instead. First, we show that this circular Matérn function is the covariance of the stationary solution to the stochastic differential equation on the circle with a formally defined white noise space measure. Then, for the corresponding conditional autoregressive model, we derive a closed form formula for its covariance function.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions recursively, where a non-parametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem is solved at each step. By analyzing this challenging sequential NPIV problem, we establish the finite-sample error bounds for estimating the V-bridge functions and accordingly that for evaluating the policy value, in terms of the sample size, length of horizon and so-called (local) measure of ill-posedness at each step. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first finite-sample error bound for OPE in POMDPs under non-parametric models.

Evaluations of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) methods are an integral part of scientific progress of the field. Beyond designing DRL methods for general intelligence, designing task-specific methods is becoming increasingly prominent for real-world applications. In these settings, the standard evaluation practice involves using a few instances of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to represent the task. However, many tasks induce a large family of MDPs owing to variations in the underlying environment, particularly in real-world contexts. For example, in traffic signal control, variations may stem from intersection geometries and traffic flow levels. The select MDP instances may thus inadvertently cause overfitting, lacking the statistical power to draw conclusions about the method's true performance across the family. In this article, we augment DRL evaluations to consider parameterized families of MDPs. We show that in comparison to evaluating DRL methods on select MDP instances, evaluating the MDP family often yields a substantially different relative ranking of methods, casting doubt on what methods should be considered state-of-the-art. We validate this phenomenon in standard control benchmarks and the real-world application of traffic signal control. At the same time, we show that accurately evaluating on an MDP family is nontrivial. Overall, this work identifies new challenges for empirical rigor in reinforcement learning, especially as the outcomes of DRL trickle into downstream decision-making.