State-of-the-art methods for solving 2-player zero-sum imperfect information games rely on linear programming or regret minimization, though not on dynamic programming (DP) or heuristic search (HS), while the latter are often at the core of state-of-the-art solvers for other sequential decision-making problems. In partially observable or collaborative settings (e.g., POMDPs and Dec- POMDPs), DP and HS require introducing an appropriate statistic that induces a fully observable problem as well as bounding (convex) approximators of the optimal value function. This approach has succeeded in some subclasses of 2-player zero-sum partially observable stochastic games (zs- POSGs) as well, but how to apply it in the general case still remains an open question. We answer it by (i) rigorously defining an equivalent game to work with, (ii) proving mathematical properties of the optimal value function that allow deriving bounds that come with solution strategies, (iii) proposing for the first time an HSVI-like solver that provably converges to an $\epsilon$-optimal solution in finite time, and (iv) empirically analyzing it. This opens the door to a novel family of promising approaches complementing those relying on linear programming or iterative methods.

In this paper, for POMDPs, we provide the convergence of a Q learning algorithm for control policies using a finite history of past observations and control actions, and, consequentially, we establish near optimality of such limit Q functions under explicit filter stability conditions. We present explicit error bounds relating the approximation error to the length of the finite history window. We establish the convergence of such Q-learning iterations under mild ergodicity assumptions on the state process during the exploration phase. We further show that the limit fixed point equation gives an optimal solution for an approximate belief-MDP. We then provide bounds on the performance of the policy obtained using the limit Q values compared to the performance of the optimal policy for the POMDP, where we also present explicit conditions using recent results on filter stability in controlled POMDPs. While there exist many experimental results, (i) the rigorous asymptotic convergence (to an approximate MDP value function) for such finite-memory Q-learning algorithms, and (ii) the near optimality with an explicit rate of convergence (in the memory size) are results that are new to the literature, to our knowledge.

We propose Algorithm Distillation (AD), a method for distilling reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms into neural networks by modeling their training histories with a causal sequence model. Algorithm Distillation treats learning to reinforcement learn as an across-episode sequential prediction problem. A dataset of learning histories is generated by a source RL algorithm, and then a causal transformer is trained by autoregressively predicting actions given their preceding learning histories as context. Unlike sequential policy prediction architectures that distill post-learning or expert sequences, AD is able to improve its policy entirely in-context without updating its network parameters. We demonstrate that AD can reinforcement learn in-context in a variety of environments with sparse rewards, combinatorial task structure, and pixel-based observations, and find that AD learns a more data-efficient RL algorithm than the one that generated the source data. Algorithm Distillation (AD) has two steps - (i) a dataset of learning histories is collected from individual single-task RL algorithms solving different tasks; (ii) a causal transformer predicts actions from these histories using across-episodic contexts. Since the RL policy improves throughout the learning histories, by predicting actions accurately AD learns to output an improved policy relative to the one seen in its context. AD models state-action-reward tokens, and does not condition on returns. Transformers have emerged as powerful neural network architectures for sequence modeling (Vaswani et al., 2017). A striking property of pre-trained transformers is their ability to adapt to downstream tasks through prompt conditioning or in-context learning. After pre-training on large offline datasets, large transformers have been shown to generalize to downstream tasks in text completion (Brown et al., 2020), language understanding (Devlin et al., 2018), and image generation (Yu et al., 2022). Recent work demonstrated that transformers can also learn policies from offline data by treating offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequential prediction problem. While Chen et al. (2021) showed that transformers can learn single-task policies from offline RL data via imitation learning, subsequent work showed that transformers can also extract multi-task policies in both same-domain (Lee et al., 2022) and cross-domain settings (Reed et al., 2022).

Most previous neural text-to-speech (TTS) methods are mainly based on supervised learning methods, which means they depend on a large training dataset and hard to achieve comparable performance under low-resource conditions. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning method for neural TTS in which labeled target data is limited, which can also resolve the problem of exposure bias in the previous auto-regressive models. Specifically, we pre-train the reference model based on Fastspeech2 with much source data, fine-tuned on a limited target dataset. Meanwhile, pseudo labels generated by the original reference model are used to guide the fine-tuned model's training further, achieve a regularization effect, and reduce the overfitting of the fine-tuned model during training on the limited target data. Experimental results show that our proposed semi-supervised learning scheme with limited target data significantly improves the voice quality for test data to achieve naturalness and robustness in speech synthesis.

The ability to direct a Probabilistic Boolean Network (PBN) to a desired state is important to applications such as targeted therapeutics in cancer biology. Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been proposed as a framework that solves a discrete-time optimal control problem cast as a Markov Decision Process. We focus on an integrative framework powered by a model-free deep RL method that can address different flavours of the control problem (e.g., with or without control inputs; attractor state or a subset of the state space as the target domain). The method is agnostic to the distribution of probabilities for the next state, hence it does not use the probability transition matrix. The time complexity is linear on the time steps, or interactions between the agent (deep RL) and the environment (PBN), during training. Indeed, we explore the scalability of the deep RL approach to (set) stabilization of large-scale PBNs and demonstrate successful control on large networks, including a metastatic melanoma PBN with 200 nodes.

We consider the problem of simultaneous learning in stochastic games with many players in the finite-horizon setting. While the typical target solution for a stochastic game is a Nash equilibrium, this is intractable with many players. We instead focus on variants of {\it correlated equilibria}, such as those studied for extensive-form games. We begin with a hardness result for the adversarial MDP problem: even for a horizon of 3, obtaining sublinear regret against the best non-stationary policy is \textsf{NP}-hard when both rewards and transitions are adversarial. This implies that convergence to even the weakest natural solution concept -- normal-form coarse correlated equilbrium -- is not possible via black-box reduction to a no-regret algorithm even in stochastic games with constant horizon (unless $\textsf{NP}\subseteq\textsf{BPP}$). Instead, we turn to a different target: algorithms which {\it generate} an equilibrium when they are used by all players. Our main result is algorithm which generates an {\it extensive-form} correlated equilibrium, whose runtime is exponential in the horizon but polynomial in all other parameters. We give a similar algorithm which is polynomial in all parameters for "fast-mixing" stochastic games. We also show a method for efficiently reaching normal-form coarse correlated equilibria in "single-controller" stochastic games which follows the traditional no-regret approach. When shared randomness is available, the two generative algorithms can be extended to give simultaneous regret bounds and converge in the traditional sense.

The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random graphs. Notably, the celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm achieves Bayes-optimal performance for the reconstruction problem of predicting the value of the Markov process at the root of the tree from its values at the leaves. Recently, the analysis of low-degree polynomials has emerged as a valuable tool for predicting computational-to-statistical gaps. In this work, we investigate the performance of low-degree polynomials for the reconstruction problem on trees. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that there are simple tree models with $N$ leaves and bounded arity where (1) nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple polynomial time algorithm and with robustness to noise, but not with any polynomial of degree $N^{c}$ for $c > 0$ a constant depending only on the arity, and (2) when the tree is unknown and given multiple samples with correlated root assignments, nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple Statistical Query algorithm but not with any polynomial of degree $N^c$. These results clarify some of the limitations of low-degree polynomials vs. polynomial time algorithms for Bayesian estimation problems. They also complement recent work of Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon who studied the circuit complexity of Belief Propagation. As a consequence of our main result, we show that for some $c' > 0$ depending only on the arity, $\exp(N^{c'})$ many samples are needed for RBF kernel regression to obtain nontrivial correlation with the true regression function (BP). We pose related open questions about low-degree polynomials and the Kesten-Stigum threshold.

Abstract: Graph clustering is the process of grouping vertices into densely connected sets called clusters. In doing so, we obtain a heuristic approximation to the intra-cluster density maximization problem. We use two variations of a Boltzmann machine heuristic to obtain numerical solutions. For benchmarking purposes, we compare solution quality and computational performances to those obtained using a commercial solver, Gurobi. We also compare clustering quality to the clusters obtained using the popular Louvain modularity maximization method.

In probably approximately correct (PAC) reinforcement learning (RL), an agent is required to identify an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with probability $1-\delta$. While minimax optimal algorithms exist for this problem, its instance-dependent complexity remains elusive in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose the first nearly matching (up to a horizon squared factor and logarithmic terms) upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity of PAC RL in deterministic episodic MDPs with finite state and action spaces. In particular, our bounds feature a new notion of sub-optimality gap for state-action pairs that we call the deterministic return gap. While our instance-dependent lower bound is written as a linear program, our algorithms are very simple and do not require solving such an optimization problem during learning. Their design and analyses employ novel ideas, including graph-theoretical concepts (minimum flows) and a new maximum-coverage exploration strategy.

Geological carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), where CO$_2$ is stored in subsurface formations, is a promising and scalable approach for reducing global emissions. However, if done incorrectly, it may lead to earthquakes and leakage of CO$_2$ back to the surface, harming both humans and the environment. These risks are exacerbated by the large amount of uncertainty in the structure of the storage formation. For these reasons, we propose that CCS operations be modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and decisions be informed using automated planning algorithms. To this end, we develop a simplified model of CCS operations based on a 2D spillpoint analysis that retains many of the challenges and safety considerations of the real-world problem. We show how off-the-shelf POMDP solvers outperform expert baselines for safe CCS planning. This POMDP model can be used as a test bed to drive the development of novel decision-making algorithms for CCS operations.