Markov Models
In Need for Both Accuracy and Interpretability? Give Probabilistic Rules a Try.
Many algorithms are capable of underpinning decision systems. They vary in efficacy regarding properties such as accuracy, speed, and interpretability. In order to fulfill business requirements and objectives, companies are often torn about which algorithms to use. One of the most common yet thorniest issues is the tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability, especially when business goals require the algorithm to be both, but available methods outperform in one area while underperforming in the other. Logistic regression models, for one, are highly interpretable, but not necessarily accurate.
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Industries and processes across the globe are embracing new technologies to increase efficiency and deliver faster and accurate outcomes. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have recently taken the world by storm with their advancements in delivering impactful and insightful results. Today, the recruitment sites are swarmed with AI-based jobs. Organizations across the world are looking for skilled resources in AI to help them to accelerate data analytics, research, and intelligence in operations. From robots serving food to self-driving cars to home listening devices, AI can be witnessed in our day-to-day lives.
Clustering Human Mobility with Multiple Spaces
Hu, Haoji, Lin, Haowen, Chiang, Yao-Yi
Human mobility clustering is an important problem for understanding human mobility behaviors (e.g., work and school commutes). Existing methods typically contain two steps: choosing or learning a mobility representation and applying a clustering algorithm to the representation. However, these methods rely on strict visiting orders in trajectories and cannot take advantage of multiple types of mobility representations. This paper proposes a novel mobility clustering method for mobility behavior detection. First, the proposed method contains a permutation-equivalent operation to handle sub-trajectories that might have different visiting orders but similar impacts on mobility behaviors. Second, the proposed method utilizes a variational autoencoder architecture to simultaneously perform clustering in both latent and original spaces. Also, in order to handle the bias of a single latent space, our clustering assignment prediction considers multiple learned latent spaces at different epochs. This way, the proposed method produces accurate results and can provide reliability estimates of each trajectory's cluster assignment. The experiment shows that the proposed method outperformed state-of-the-art methods in mobility behavior detection from trajectories with better accuracy and more interpretability.
Likelihood-based generalization of Markov parameter estimation and multiple shooting objectives in system identification
Galioto, Nicholas, Gorodetsky, Alex Arkady
This paper considers the problem of system identification (ID) of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data. We propose and analyze an objective function derived from a Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics. We then analyze this objective function in the context of several state-of-the-art approaches for both linear and nonlinear system ID. In the former, we analyze least squares approaches for Markov parameter estimation, and in the latter, we analyze the multiple shooting approach. We demonstrate the limitations of the optimization problems posed by these existing methods by showing that they can be seen as special cases of the proposed optimization objective under certain simplifying assumptions: conditional independence of data and zero model error. Furthermore, we observe that our proposed approach has improved smoothness and inherent regularization that make it well-suited for system ID and provide mathematical explanations for these characteristics' origins. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate a mean squared error over 8.7 times lower compared to multiple shooting when data are noisy and/or sparse. Moreover, the proposed approach can identify accurate and generalizable models even when there are more parameters than data or when the underlying system exhibits chaotic behavior.
A Survey of Meta-Reinforcement Learning
Beck, Jacob, Vuorio, Risto, Liu, Evan Zheran, Xiong, Zheng, Zintgraf, Luisa, Finn, Chelsea, Whiteson, Shimon
While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has fueled multiple high-profile successes in machine learning, it is held back from more widespread adoption by its often poor data efficiency and the limited generality of the policies it produces. A promising approach for alleviating these limitations is to cast the development of better RL algorithms as a machine learning problem itself in a process called meta-RL. Meta-RL is most commonly studied in a problem setting where, given a distribution of tasks, the goal is to learn a policy that is capable of adapting to any new task from the task distribution with as little data as possible. In this survey, we describe the meta-RL problem setting in detail as well as its major variations. We discuss how, at a high level, meta-RL research can be clustered based on the presence of a task distribution and the learning budget available for each individual task. Using these clusters, we then survey meta-RL algorithms and applications. We conclude by presenting the open problems on the path to making meta-RL part of the standard toolbox for a deep RL practitioner.
Keyframe Demonstration Seeded and Bayesian Optimized Policy Search
Tore, Onur Berk, Negahbani, Farzin, Akgun, Baris
This paper introduces a novel Learning from Demonstration framework to learn robotic skills with keyframe demonstrations using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) and a Bayesian Optimized Policy Search approach to improve the learned skills. DBN learns the robot motion, perceptual change in the object of interest (aka skill sub-goals) and the relation between them. The rewards are also learned from the perceptual part of the DBN. The policy search part is a semiblack box algorithm, which we call BO-PI2 . It utilizes the action-perception relation to focus the high-level exploration, uses Gaussian Processes to model the expected-return and performs Upper Confidence Bound type low-level exploration for sampling the rollouts. BO-PI2 is compared against a stateof-the-art method on three different skills in a real robot setting with expert and naive user demonstrations. The results show that our approach successfully focuses the exploration on the failed sub-goals and the addition of reward-predictive exploration outperforms the state-of-the-art approach on cumulative reward, skill success, and termination time metrics.
A Convenient Infinite Dimensional Framework for Generative Adversarial Learning
Asatryan, Hayk, Gottschalk, Hanno, Lippert, Marieke, Rottmann, Matthias
In recent years, generative adversarial networks (GANs) have demonstrated impressive experimental results while there are only a few works that foster statistical learning theory for GANs. In this work, we propose an infinite dimensional theoretical framework for generative adversarial learning. We assume that the probability density functions of the underlying measure are uniformly bounded, $k$-times $\alpha$-H\"{o}lder differentiable ($C^{k,\alpha}$) and uniformly bounded away from zero. Under these assumptions, we show that the Rosenblatt transformation induces an optimal generator, which is realizable in the hypothesis space of $C^{k,\alpha}$-generators. With a consistent definition of the hypothesis space of discriminators, we further show that the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the distribution induced by the generator from the adversarial learning procedure and the data generating distribution converges to zero. Under certain regularity assumptions on the density of the data generating process, we also provide rates of convergence based on chaining and concentration.
Remote patient monitoring using artificial intelligence: Current state, applications, and challenges
Shaik, Thanveer, Tao, Xiaohui, Higgins, Niall, Li, Lin, Gururajan, Raj, Zhou, Xujuan, Acharya, U. Rajendra
The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare is growing rapidly. Remote patient monitoring (RPM) is one of the common healthcare applications that assist doctors to monitor patients with chronic or acute illness at remote locations, elderly people in-home care, and even hospitalized patients. The reliability of manual patient monitoring systems depends on staff time management which is dependent on their workload. Conventional patient monitoring involves invasive approaches which require skin contact to monitor health status. This study aims to do a comprehensive review of RPM systems including adopted advanced technologies, AI impact on RPM, challenges and trends in AI-enabled RPM. This review explores the benefits and challenges of patient-centric RPM architectures enabled with Internet of Things wearable devices and sensors using the cloud, fog, edge, and blockchain technologies. The role of AI in RPM ranges from physical activity classification to chronic disease monitoring and vital signs monitoring in emergency settings. This review results show that AI-enabled RPM architectures have transformed healthcare monitoring applications because of their ability to detect early deterioration in patients' health, personalize individual patient health parameter monitoring using federated learning, and learn human behavior patterns using techniques such as reinforcement learning. This review discusses the challenges and trends to adopt AI to RPM systems and implementation issues. The future directions of AI in RPM applications are analyzed based on the challenges and trends
Human-Timescale Adaptation in an Open-Ended Task Space
Adaptive Agent Team, null, Bauer, Jakob, Baumli, Kate, Baveja, Satinder, Behbahani, Feryal, Bhoopchand, Avishkar, Bradley-Schmieg, Nathalie, Chang, Michael, Clay, Natalie, Collister, Adrian, Dasagi, Vibhavari, Gonzalez, Lucy, Gregor, Karol, Hughes, Edward, Kashem, Sheleem, Loks-Thompson, Maria, Openshaw, Hannah, Parker-Holder, Jack, Pathak, Shreya, Perez-Nieves, Nicolas, Rakicevic, Nemanja, Rocktäschel, Tim, Schroecker, Yannick, Sygnowski, Jakub, Tuyls, Karl, York, Sarah, Zacherl, Alexander, Zhang, Lei
Foundation models have shown impressive adaptation and scalability in supervised and self-supervised learning problems, but so far these successes have not fully translated to reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we demonstrate that training an RL agent at scale leads to a general in-context learning algorithm that can adapt to open-ended novel embodied 3D problems as quickly as humans. In a vast space of held-out environment dynamics, our adaptive agent (AdA) displays on-the-fly hypothesis-driven exploration, efficient exploitation of acquired knowledge, and can successfully be prompted with first-person demonstrations. Adaptation emerges from three ingredients: (1) meta-reinforcement learning across a vast, smooth and diverse task distribution, (2) a policy parameterised as a large-scale attention-based memory architecture, and (3) an effective automated curriculum that prioritises tasks at the frontier of an agent's capabilities. We demonstrate characteristic scaling laws with respect to network size, memory length, and richness of the training task distribution. We believe our results lay the foundation for increasingly general and adaptive RL agents that perform well across ever-larger open-ended domains.
Causal conditional hidden Markov model for multimodal traffic prediction
Zhao, Yu, Deng, Pan, Liu, Junting, Jia, Xiaofeng, Wang, Mulan
Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.