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 Markov Models


Bayesian MRI Reconstruction with Joint Uncertainty Estimation using Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a framework that enables efficient sampling from learned probability distributions for MRI reconstruction. Different from conventional deep learning-based MRI reconstruction techniques, samples are drawn from the posterior distribution given the measured k-space using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. In addition to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate for the image, which can be obtained with conventional methods, the minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimate and uncertainty maps can also be computed. The data-driven Markov chains are constructed from the generative model learned from a given image database and are independent of the forward operator that is used to model the k-space measurement. This provides flexibility because the method can be applied to k-space acquired with different sampling schemes or receive coils using the same pre-trained models. Furthermore, we use a framework based on a reverse diffusion process to be able to utilize advanced generative models. The performance of the method is evaluated on an open dataset using 10-fold undersampling in k-space.


Gaze-based intention estimation: principles, methodologies, and applications in HRI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intention prediction has become a relevant field of research in Human-Machine and Human-Robot Interaction. Indeed, any artificial system (co)-operating with and along humans, designed to assist and coordinate its actions with a human partner, would benefit from first inferring the human's current intention. To spare the user the cognitive burden of explicitly uttering their goals, this inference relies mostly on behavioral cues deemed indicative of the current action. It has been long known that eye movements are highly anticipatory of the single steps unfolding during a task, hence they can serve as a very early and reliable behavioural cue for intention recognition. This review aims to draw a line between insights in the psychological literature on visuomotor control and relevant applications of gaze-based intention recognition in technical domains, with a focus on teleoperated and assistive robotic systems. Starting from the cognitive principles underlying the relationship between intentions, eye movements, and action, the use of eye tracking and gaze-based models for intent recognition in Human-Robot Interaction is considered, with prevalent methodologies and their diverse applications. Finally, special consideration is given to relevant human factors issues and current limitations to be factored in when designing such systems.


Nonlinear Random Matrices and Applications to the Sum of Squares Hierarchy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We develop new tools in the theory of nonlinear random matrices and apply them to study the performance of the Sum of Squares (SoS) hierarchy on average-case problems. The SoS hierarchy is a powerful optimization technique that has achieved tremendous success for various problems in combinatorial optimization, robust statistics and machine learning. It's a family of convex relaxations that lets us smoothly trade off running time for approximation guarantees. In recent works, it's been shown to be extremely useful for recovering structure in high dimensional noisy data. It also remains our best approach towards refuting the notorious Unique Games Conjecture. In this work, we analyze the performance of the SoS hierarchy on fundamental problems stemming from statistics, theoretical computer science and statistical physics. In particular, we show subexponential-time SoS lower bounds for the problems of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Hamiltonian, Planted Slightly Denser Subgraph, Tensor Principal Components Analysis and Sparse Principal Components Analysis. These SoS lower bounds involve analyzing large random matrices, wherein lie our main contributions. These results offer strong evidence for the truth of and insight into the low-degree likelihood ratio hypothesis, an important conjecture that predicts the power of bounded-time algorithms for hypothesis testing. We also develop general-purpose tools for analyzing the behavior of random matrices which are functions of independent random variables. Towards this, we build on and generalize the matrix variant of the Efron-Stein inequalities. In particular, our general theorem on matrix concentration recovers various results that have appeared in the literature. We expect these random matrix theory ideas to have other significant applications.


On the Statistical Benefits of Temporal Difference Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.


Learning Mixtures of Markov Chains with Quality Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A large number of modern applications ranging from listening songs online and browsing the Web to using a navigation app on a smartphone generate a plethora of user trails. Clustering such trails into groups with a common sequence pattern can reveal significant structure in human behavior that can lead to improving user experience through better recommendations, and even prevent suicides [LMCR14]. One approach to modeling this problem mathematically is as a mixture of Markov chains. Recently, Gupta, Kumar and Vassilvitski [GKV16] introduced an algorithm (GKV-SVD) based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) that under certain conditions can perfectly recover a mixture of L chains on n states, given only the distribution of trails of length 3 (3-trail). In this work we contribute to the problem of unmixing Markov chains by highlighting and addressing two important constraints of the GKV-SVD algorithm [GKV16]: some chains in the mixture may not even be weakly connected, and secondly in practice one does not know beforehand the true number of chains. We resolve these issues in the Gupta et al. paper [GKV16]. Specifically, we propose an algebraic criterion that enables us to choose a value of L efficiently that avoids overfitting. Furthermore, we design a reconstruction algorithm that outputs the true mixture in the presence of disconnected chains and is robust to noise. We complement our theoretical results with experiments on both synthetic and real data, where we observe that our method outperforms the GKV-SVD algorithm. Finally, we empirically observe that combining an EM-algorithm with our method performs best in practice, both in terms of reconstruction error with respect to the distribution of 3-trails and the mixture of Markov Chains.


Learning to Simulate Daily Activities via Modeling Dynamic Human Needs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Daily activity data that records individuals' various types of activities in daily life are widely used in many applications such as activity scheduling, activity recommendation, and policymaking. Though with high value, its accessibility is limited due to high collection costs and potential privacy issues. Therefore, simulating human activities to produce massive high-quality data is of great importance to benefit practical applications. However, existing solutions, including rule-based methods with simplified assumptions of human behavior and data-driven methods directly fitting real-world data, both cannot fully qualify for matching reality. In this paper, motivated by the classic psychological theory, Maslow's need theory describing human motivation, we propose a knowledge-driven simulation framework based on generative adversarial imitation learning. To enhance the fidelity and utility of the generated activity data, our core idea is to model the evolution of human needs as the underlying mechanism that drives activity generation in the simulation model. Specifically, this is achieved by a hierarchical model structure that disentangles different need levels, and the use of neural stochastic differential equations that successfully captures piecewise-continuous characteristics of need dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of data fidelity and utility. Besides, we present the insightful interpretability of the need modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/SAND.


Slowly Changing Adversarial Bandit Algorithms are Efficient for Discounted MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning generalizes bandit problems with additional difficulties on longer planning horizon and unknown transition kernel. We show that, under some mild assumptions, *any* slowly changing adversarial bandit algorithm enjoys optimal regret in adversarial bandits can achieve optimal (in the dependency of $T$) expected regret in infinite-horizon discounted MDPs, without the presence of Bellman backups. The slowly changing property required by our generalization is mild, which is also marked by the online Markov decision process literature. We also examine the applicability of our reduction to a well-known adversarial bandit algorithm, EXP3.


A Survey of Knowledge Tracing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-quality education is one of the keys to achieving a more sustainable world. In contrast to traditional face-to-face classroom education, online education enables us to record and research a large amount of learning data for offering intelligent educational services. Knowledge Tracing (KT), which aims to monitor students' evolving knowledge state in learning, is the fundamental task to support these intelligent services. In recent years, an increasing amount of research is focused on this emerging field and considerable progress has been made. In this survey, we categorize existing KT models from a technical perspective and investigate these models in a systematic manner. Subsequently, we review abundant variants of KT models that consider more strict learning assumptions from three phases: before, during, and after learning. To better facilitate researchers and practitioners working on this field, we open source two algorithm libraries: EduData for downloading and preprocessing KT-related datasets, and EduKTM with extensible and unified implementation of existing mainstream KT models. Moreover, the development of KT cannot be separated from its applications, therefore we further present typical KT applications in different scenarios. Finally, we discuss some potential directions for future research in this fast-growing field.


On the Computational Complexity of Ethics: Moral Tractability for Minds and Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Why should moral philosophers, moral psychologists, and machine ethicists care about computational complexity? Debates on whether artificial intelligence (AI) can or should be used to solve problems in ethical domains have mainly been driven by what AI can or cannot do in terms of human capacities. In this paper, we tackle the problem from the other end by exploring what kind of moral machines are possible based on what computational systems can or cannot do. To do so, we analyze normative ethics through the lens of computational complexity. First, we introduce computational complexity for the uninitiated reader and discuss how the complexity of ethical problems can be framed within Marr's three levels of analysis. We then study a range of ethical problems based on consequentialism, deontology, and virtue ethics, with the aim of elucidating the complexity associated with the problems themselves (e.g., due to combinatorics, uncertainty, strategic dynamics), the computational methods employed (e.g., probability, logic, learning), and the available resources (e.g., time, knowledge, learning). The results indicate that most problems the normative frameworks pose lead to tractability issues in every category analyzed. Our investigation also provides several insights about the computational nature of normative ethics, including the differences between rule- and outcome-based moral strategies, and the implementation-variance with regard to moral resources. We then discuss the consequences complexity results have for the prospect of moral machines in virtue of the trade-off between optimality and efficiency. Finally, we elucidate how computational complexity can be used to inform both philosophical and cognitive-psychological research on human morality by advancing the Moral Tractability Thesis (MTT).


Asking for Help: Failure Prediction in Behavioral Cloning through Value Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent progress in end-to-end Imitation Learning approaches has shown promising results and generalization capabilities on mobile manipulation tasks. Such models are seeing increasing deployment in real-world settings, where scaling up requires robots to be able to operate with high autonomy, i.e. requiring as little human supervision as possible. In order to avoid the need for one-on-one human supervision, robots need to be able to detect and prevent policy failures ahead of time, and ask for help, allowing a remote operator to supervise multiple robots and help when needed. However, the black-box nature of end-to-end Imitation Learning models such as Behavioral Cloning, as well as the lack of an explicit state-value representation, make it difficult to predict failures. To this end, we introduce Behavioral Cloning Value Approximation (BCVA), an approach to learning a state value function based on and trained jointly with a Behavioral Cloning policy that can be used to predict failures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BCVA by applying it to the challenging mobile manipulation task of latched-door opening, showing that we can identify failure scenarios with with 86% precision and 81% recall, evaluated on over 2000 real world runs, improving upon the baseline of simple failure classification by 10 percentage-points.