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Recent Advances in Reinforcement Learning in Finance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid changes in the finance industry due to the increasing amount of data have revolutionized the techniques on data processing and data analysis and brought new theoretical and computational challenges. In contrast to classical stochastic control theory and other analytical approaches for solving financial decision-making problems that heavily reply on model assumptions, new developments from reinforcement learning (RL) are able to make full use of the large amount of financial data with fewer model assumptions and to improve decisions in complex financial environments. This survey paper aims to review the recent developments and use of RL approaches in finance. We give an introduction to Markov decision processes, which is the setting for many of the commonly used RL approaches. Various algorithms are then introduced with a focus on value and policy based methods that do not require any model assumptions. Connections are made with neural networks to extend the framework to encompass deep RL algorithms. Our survey concludes by discussing the application of these RL algorithms in a variety of decision-making problems in finance, including optimal execution, portfolio optimization, option pricing and hedging, market making, smart order routing, and robo-advising.


Human-Inspired Framework to Accelerate Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While deep reinforcement learning (RL) is becoming an integral part of good decision-making in data science, it is still plagued with sample inefficiency. This can be challenging when applying deep-RL in real-world environments where physical interactions are expensive and can risk system safety. To improve the sample efficiency of RL algorithms, this paper proposes a novel human-inspired framework that facilitates fast exploration and learning for difficult RL tasks. The main idea is to first provide the learning agent with simpler but similar tasks that gradually grow in difficulty and progress toward the main task. The proposed method requires no pre-training phase. Specifically, the learning of simpler tasks is only done for one iteration. The generated knowledge could be used by any transfer learning, including value transfer and policy transfer, to reduce the sample complexity while not adding to the computational complexity. So, it can be applied to any goal, environment, and reinforcement learning algorithm - both value-based methods and policy-based methods and both tabular methods and deep-RL methods. We have evaluated our proposed framework on both a simple Random Walk for illustration purposes and on more challenging optimal control problems with constraint. The experiments show the good performance of our proposed framework in improving the sample efficiency of RL-learning algorithms, especially when the main task is difficult.


Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning in Complex 3D Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) agents have the potential to demonstrate appealing capabilities such as planning and exploration with abstraction, transfer, and skill reuse. Recent successes with HRL across different domains provide evidence that practical, effective HRL agents are possible, even if existing agents do not yet fully realize the potential of HRL. Despite these successes, visually complex partially observable 3D environments remained a challenge for HRL agents. We address this issue with Hierarchical Hybrid Offline-Online (H2O2), a hierarchical deep reinforcement learning agent that discovers and learns to use options from scratch using its own experience. We show that H2O2 is competitive with a strong non-hierarchical Muesli baseline in the DeepMind Hard Eight tasks and we shed new light on the problem of learning hierarchical agents in complex environments. Our empirical study of H2O2 reveals previously unnoticed practical challenges and brings new perspective to the current understanding of hierarchical agents in complex domains.


Indexability is Not Enough for Whittle: Improved, Near-Optimal Algorithms for Restless Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of planning restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) with multiple actions. This is a popular model for multi-agent systems with applications like multi-channel communication, monitoring and machine maintenance tasks, and healthcare. Whittle index policies, which are based on Lagrangian relaxations, are widely used in these settings due to their simplicity and near-optimality under certain conditions. In this work, we first show that Whittle index policies can fail in simple and practically relevant RMAB settings, even when the RMABs are indexable. We discuss why the optimality guarantees fail and why asymptotic optimality may not translate well to practically relevant planning horizons. We then propose an alternate planning algorithm based on the mean-field method, which can provably and efficiently obtain near-optimal policies with a large number of arms, without the stringent structural assumptions required by the Whittle index policies. This borrows ideas from existing research with some improvements: our approach is hyper-parameter free, and we provide an improved non-asymptotic analysis which has: (a) no requirement for exogenous hyper-parameters and tighter polynomial dependence on known problem parameters; (b) high probability bounds which show that the reward of the policy is reliable; and (c) matching sub-optimality lower bounds for this algorithm with respect to the number of arms, thus demonstrating the tightness of our bounds. Our extensive experimental analysis shows that the mean-field approach matches or outperforms other baselines.


Particle-based Online Bayesian Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online learning has gained increasing interest due Online optimization methods can directly be applied to update to its capability of tracking real-world streaming models that are fully specified by a certain value of its data. Although it has been widely studied in the parameters. Beyond such models, there is another class of setting of frequentist statistics, few works have models known as Bayesian models that treat the parameters considered online learning with the Bayesian sampling as random variables, thus giving an output also as a random problem. In this paper, we study an Online variable (often the expectation is taken as the final output on Particle-based Variational Inference (OPVI) algorithm par with the conventional case). The stochasticity enables that updates a set of particles to gradually Bayesian models to provide diverse outputs, characterize approximate the Bayesian posterior. To reduce prediction uncertainty, and be more robust to adversarial the gradient error caused by the use of stochastic attacks (Hernรกndez-Lobato and Adams, 2015; Li and Gal, approximation, we include a sublinear increasing 2017; Yoon et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019; Tolpin et al., batch-size method to reduce the variance.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cost-Effective Medical Diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dynamic diagnosis is desirable when medical tests are costly or time-consuming. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to find a dynamic policy that selects lab test panels sequentially based on previous observations, ensuring accurate testing at a low cost. Clinical diagnostic data are often highly imbalanced; therefore, we aim to maximize the $F_1$ score instead of the error rate. However, optimizing the non-concave $F_1$ score is not a classic RL problem, thus invalidates standard RL methods. To remedy this issue, we develop a reward shaping approach, leveraging properties of the $F_1$ score and duality of policy optimization, to provably find the set of all Pareto-optimal policies for budget-constrained $F_1$ score maximization. To handle the combinatorially complex state space, we propose a Semi-Model-based Deep Diagnosis Policy Optimization (SM-DDPO) framework that is compatible with end-to-end training and online learning. SM-DDPO is tested on diverse clinical tasks: ferritin abnormality detection, sepsis mortality prediction, and acute kidney injury diagnosis. Experiments with real-world data validate that SM-DDPO trains efficiently and identifies all Pareto-front solutions. Across all tasks, SM-DDPO is able to achieve state-of-the-art diagnosis accuracy (in some cases higher than conventional methods) with up to $85\%$ reduction in testing cost. The code is available at [https://github.com/Zheng321/Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-for-Cost-Effective-Medical-Diagnosis].


A deep inverse reinforcement learning approach to route choice modeling with context-dependent rewards

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Route choice modeling is a fundamental task in transportation planning and demand forecasting. Classical methods generally adopt the discrete choice model (DCM) framework with linear utility functions and high-level route characteristics. While several recent studies have started to explore the applicability of deep learning for route choice modeling, they are limited to path-based models with relatively simple model architectures and relying on predefined choice sets. Existing link-based models can capture the dynamic nature of link choices within the trip without the need for choice set generation, but still assume linear relationships and link-additive features. To address these issues, this study proposes a general deep inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) framework for link-based route choice modeling, which is capable of incorporating diverse features (of the state, action and trip context) and capturing complex relationships. Specifically, we adapt an adversarial IRL model to the route choice problem for efficient estimation of context-dependent reward functions without value iteration. Experiment results based on taxi GPS data from Shanghai, China validate the superior prediction performance of the proposed model over conventional DCMs and other imitation learning baselines, even for destinations unseen in the training data. Further analysis show that the model exhibits competitive computational efficiency and reasonable interpretability. The proposed methodology provides a new direction for future development of route choice models. It is general and can be adaptable to other route choice problems across different modes and networks.


Optimizing Audio Recommendations for the Long-Term: A Reinforcement Learning Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of optimizing a recommender system for outcomes that occur over several weeks or months. We begin by drawing on reinforcement learning to formulate a comprehensive model of users' recurring relationships with a recommender system. Measurement, attribution, and coordination challenges complicate algorithm design. We describe careful modeling -- including a new representation of user state and key conditional independence assumptions -- which overcomes these challenges and leads to simple, testable recommender system prototypes. We apply our approach to a podcast recommender system that makes personalized recommendations to hundreds of millions of listeners. A/B tests demonstrate that purposefully optimizing for long-term outcomes leads to large performance gains over conventional approaches that optimize for short-term proxies.


Learning Hidden Markov Models Using Conditional Samples

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in the standard setting where one has access to i.i.d. samples of observation sequences. In this paper, we depart from this setup and consider an interactive access model, in which the algorithm can query for samples from the conditional distributions of the HMMs. We show that interactive access to the HMM enables computationally efficient learning algorithms, thereby bypassing cryptographic hardness. Specifically, we obtain efficient algorithms for learning HMMs in two settings: (a) An easier setting where we have query access to the exact conditional probabilities. Here our algorithm runs in polynomial time and makes polynomially many queries to approximate any HMM in total variation distance. (b) A harder setting where we can only obtain samples from the conditional distributions. Here the performance of the algorithm depends on a new parameter, called the fidelity of the HMM. We show that this captures cryptographically hard instances and previously known positive results. We also show that these results extend to a broader class of distributions with latent low rank structure. Our algorithms can be viewed as generalizations and robustifications of Angluin's $L^*$ algorithm for learning deterministic finite automata from membership queries.


MARLAS: Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning for cooperated Adaptive Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The multi-robot adaptive sampling problem aims at finding trajectories for a team of robots to efficiently sample the phenomenon of interest within a given endurance budget of the robots. In this paper, we propose a robust and scalable approach using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for cooperated Adaptive Sampling (MARLAS) of quasi-static environmental processes. Given a prior on the field being sampled, the proposed method learns decentralized policies for a team of robots to sample high-utility regions within a fixed budget. The multi-robot adaptive sampling problem requires the robots to coordinate with each other to avoid overlapping sampling trajectories. Therefore, we encode the estimates of neighbor positions and intermittent communication between robots into the learning process. We evaluated MARLAS over multiple performance metrics and found it to outperform other baseline multi-robot sampling techniques. Additionally, we demonstrate scalability with both the size of the robot team and the size of the region being sampled. We further demonstrate robustness to communication failures and robot failures. The experimental evaluations are conducted both in simulations on real data and in real robot experiments on demo environmental setup.