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 Markov Models


Learning multi-scale local conditional probability models of images

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep neural networks can learn powerful prior probability models for images, as evidenced by the high-quality generations obtained with recent score-based diffusion methods. But the means by which these networks capture complex global statistical structure, apparently without suffering from the curse of dimensionality, remain a mystery. To study this, we incorporate diffusion methods into a multi-scale decomposition, reducing dimensionality by assuming a stationary local Markov model for wavelet coefficients conditioned on coarser-scale coefficients. We instantiate this model using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with local receptive fields, which enforce both the stationarity and Markov properties. Global structures are captured using a CNN with receptive fields covering the entire (but small) low-pass image. We test this model on a dataset of face images, which are highly non-stationary and contain large-scale geometric structures. Remarkably, denoising, super-resolution, and image synthesis results all demonstrate that these structures can be captured with significantly smaller conditioning neighborhoods than required by a Markov model implemented in the pixel domain. Our results show that score estimation for large complex images can be reduced to low-dimensional Markov conditional models across scales, alleviating the curse of dimensionality. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have produced dramatic advances in synthesizing complex images and solving inverse problems, all of which rely (at least implicitly) on prior probability models.


An Analysis of Physics-Informed Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Whilst the partial differential equations that govern the dynamics of our world have been studied in great depth for centuries, solving them for complex, high-dimensional conditions and domains still presents an incredibly large mathematical and computational challenge. Analytical methods can be cumbersome to utilise, and numerical methods can lead to errors and inaccuracies. On top of this, sometimes we lack the information or knowledge to pose the problem well enough to apply these kinds of methods. Here, we present a new approach to approximating the solution to physical systems - physics-informed neural networks. The concept of artificial neural networks is introduced, the objective function is defined, and optimisation strategies are discussed. The partial differential equation is then included as a constraint in the loss function for the optimisation problem, giving the network access to knowledge of the dynamics of the physical system it is modelling. Some intuitive examples are displayed, and more complex applications are considered to showcase the power of physics informed neural networks, such as in seismic imaging. Solution error is analysed, and suggestions are made to improve convergence and/or solution precision. Problems and limitations are also touched upon in the conclusions, as well as some thoughts as to where physics informed neural networks are most useful, and where they could go next.


Seq2Seq Imitation Learning for Tactile Feedback-based Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robot control for tactile feedback-based manipulation can be difficult due to the modeling of physical contacts, partial observability of the environment, and noise in perception and control. This work focuses on solving partial observability of contact-rich manipulation tasks as a Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq)} Imitation Learning (IL) problem. The proposed Seq2Seq model produces a robot-environment interaction sequence to estimate the partially observable environment state variables. Then, the observed interaction sequence is transformed to a control sequence for the task itself. The proposed Seq2Seq IL for tactile feedback-based manipulation is experimentally validated on a door-open task in a simulated environment and a snap-on insertion task with a real robot. The model is able to learn both tasks from only 50 expert demonstrations, while state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods fail.


Consistent Valid Physically-Realizable Adversarial Attack against Crowd-flow Prediction Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent works have shown that deep learning (DL) models can effectively learn city-wide crowd-flow patterns, which can be used for more effective urban planning and smart city management. However, DL models have been known to perform poorly on inconspicuous adversarial perturbations. Although many works have studied these adversarial perturbations in general, the adversarial vulnerabilities of deep crowd-flow prediction models in particular have remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we perform a rigorous analysis of the adversarial vulnerabilities of DL-based crowd-flow prediction models under multiple threat settings, making three-fold contributions. (1) We propose CaV-detect by formally identifying two novel properties - Consistency and Validity - of the crowd-flow prediction inputs that enable the detection of standard adversarial inputs with 0% false acceptance rate (FAR). (2) We leverage universal adversarial perturbations and an adaptive adversarial loss to present adaptive adversarial attacks to evade CaV-detect defense. (3) We propose CVPR, a Consistent, Valid and Physically-Realizable adversarial attack, that explicitly inducts the consistency and validity priors in the perturbation generation mechanism. We find out that although the crowd-flow models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, it is extremely challenging to simulate these perturbations in physical settings, notably when CaV-detect is in place. We also show that CVPR attack considerably outperforms the adaptively modified standard attacks in FAR and adversarial loss metrics. We conclude with useful insights emerging from our work and highlight promising future research directions.


Learning Explicit Credit Assignment for Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via Polarization Policy Gradient

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cooperative multi-agent policy gradient (MAPG) algorithms have recently attracted wide attention and are regarded as a general scheme for the multi-agent system. Credit assignment plays an important role in MAPG and can induce cooperation among multiple agents. However, most MAPG algorithms cannot achieve good credit assignment because of the game-theoretic pathology known as \textit{centralized-decentralized mismatch}. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel method, \textit{\underline{M}ulti-\underline{A}gent \underline{P}olarization \underline{P}olicy \underline{G}radient} (MAPPG). MAPPG takes a simple but efficient polarization function to transform the optimal consistency of joint and individual actions into easily realized constraints, thus enabling efficient credit assignment in MAPG. Theoretically, we prove that individual policies of MAPPG can converge to the global optimum. Empirically, we evaluate MAPPG on the well-known matrix game and differential game, and verify that MAPPG can converge to the global optimum for both discrete and continuous action spaces. We also evaluate MAPPG on a set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks and demonstrate that MAPPG outperforms the state-of-the-art MAPG algorithms.


Artificial Intelligence: 70 Years Down the Road

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) has a history of nearly a century from its inception to the present day. We have summarized the development trends and discovered universal rules, including both success and failure. We have analyzed the reasons from both technical and philosophical perspectives to help understand the reasons behind the past failures and current successes of AI, and to provide a basis for thinking and exploring future development. Specifically, we have found that the development of AI in different fields, including computer vision, natural language processing, and machine learning, follows a pattern from rules to statistics to data-driven methods. In the face of past failures and current successes, we need to think systematically about the reasons behind them. Given the unity of AI between natural and social sciences, it is necessary to incorporate philosophical thinking to understand and solve AI problems, and we believe that starting from the dialectical method of Marx is a feasible path. We have concluded that the sustainable development direction of AI should be human-machine collaboration and a technology path centered on computing power. Finally, we have summarized the impact of AI on society from this trend.


Demonstration-guided Deep Reinforcement Learning for Coordinated Ramp Metering and Perimeter Control in Large Scale Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective traffic control methods have great potential in alleviating network congestion. Existing literature generally focuses on a single control approach, while few studies have explored the effectiveness of integrated and coordinated control approaches. This study considers two representative control approaches: ramp metering for freeways and perimeter control for homogeneous urban roads, and we aim to develop a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based coordinated control framework for large-scale networks. The main challenges are 1) there is a lack of efficient dynamic models for both freeways and urban roads; 2) the standard DRL method becomes ineffective due to the complex and non-stationary network dynamics. In view of this, we propose a novel meso-macro dynamic network model and first time develop a demonstration-guided DRL method to achieve large-scale coordinated ramp metering and perimeter control. The dynamic network model hybridizes the link and generalized bathtub models to depict the traffic dynamics of freeways and urban roads, respectively. For the DRL method, we incorporate demonstration to guide the DRL method for better convergence by introducing the concept of "teacher" and "student" models. The teacher models are traditional controllers (e.g., ALINEA, Gating), which provide control demonstrations. The student models are DRL methods, which learn from the teacher and aim to surpass the teacher's performance. To validate the proposed framework, we conduct two case studies in a small-scale network and a real-world large-scale traffic network in Hong Kong. The research outcome reveals the great potential of combining traditional controllers with DRL for coordinated control in large-scale networks.


Proximal Exploration of Venus Volcanism with Teams of Autonomous Buoyancy-Controlled Balloons

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Altitude-controlled balloons hold great promise for performing high-priority scientific investigations of Venus's atmosphere and geological phenomena, including tectonic and volcanic activity, as demonstrated by a number of recent Earth-based experiments. In this paper, we explore a concept of operations where multiple autonomous, altitude-controlled balloons monitor explosive volcanic activity on Venus through infrasound microbarometers, and autonomously navigate the uncertain wind field to perform follow-on observations of detected events of interest. We propose a novel autonomous guidance technique for altitude-controlled balloons in Venus's uncertain wind field, and show the approach can result in an increase of up to 63% in the number of close-up observations of volcanic events compared to passive drifters, and a 16% increase compared to ground-in-the-loop guidance. The results are robust to uncertainty in the wind field, and hold across large changes in the frequency of explosive volcanic events, sensitivity of the microbarometer detectors, and numbers of aerial platforms.


Minimizing the Outage Probability in a Markov Decision Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Standard Markov decision process (MDP) and reinforcement learning algorithms optimize the policy with respect to the expected gain. We propose an algorithm which enables to optimize an alternative objective: the probability that the gain is greater than a given value. The algorithm can be seen as an extension of the value iteration algorithm. We also show how the proposed algorithm could be generalized to use neural networks, similarly to the deep Q learning extension of Q learning.


POPGym: Benchmarking Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real world applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL) are often partially observable, thus requiring memory. Despite this, partial observability is still largely ignored by contemporary RL benchmarks and libraries. We introduce Partially Observable Process Gym (POPGym), a two-part library containing (1) a diverse collection of 15 partially observable environments, each with multiple difficulties and (2) implementations of 13 memory model baselines -- the most in a single RL library. Existing partially observable benchmarks tend to fixate on 3D visual navigation, which is computationally expensive and only one type of POMDP. In contrast, POPGym environments are diverse, produce smaller observations, use less memory, and often converge within two hours of training on a consumer-grade GPU. We implement our high-level memory API and memory baselines on top of the popular RLlib framework, providing plug-and-play compatibility with various training algorithms, exploration strategies, and distributed training paradigms. Using POPGym, we execute the largest comparison across RL memory models to date. POPGym is available at https://github.com/proroklab/popgym.