Infectious diseases remain among the top contributors to human illness and death worldwide, among which many diseases produce epidemic waves of infection. The unavailability of specific drugs and ready-to-use vaccines to prevent most of these epidemics makes the situation worse. These force public health officials and policymakers to rely on early warning systems generated by reliable and accurate forecasts of epidemics. Accurate forecasts of epidemics can assist stakeholders in tailoring countermeasures, such as vaccination campaigns, staff scheduling, and resource allocation, to the situation at hand, which could translate to reductions in the impact of a disease. Unfortunately, most of these past epidemics exhibit nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics due to their spreading fluctuations based on seasonal-dependent variability and the nature of these epidemics. We analyse a wide variety of epidemic time series datasets using a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) based autoregressive neural network and call it EWNet model. MODWT techniques effectively characterize non-stationary behavior and seasonal dependencies in the epidemic time series and improve the nonlinear forecasting scheme of the autoregressive neural network in the proposed ensemble wavelet network framework. From a nonlinear time series viewpoint, we explore the asymptotic stationarity of the proposed EWNet model to show the asymptotic behavior of the associated Markov Chain. We also theoretically investigate the effect of learning stability and the choice of hidden neurons in the proposal. From a practical perspective, we compare our proposed EWNet framework with several statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models. Experimental results show that the proposed EWNet is highly competitive compared to the state-of-the-art epidemic forecasting methods.

State representation learning aims to capture latent factors of an environment. Contrastive methods have performed better than generative models in previous state representation learning research. Although some researchers realize the connections between masked image modeling and contrastive representation learning, the effort is focused on using masks as an augmentation technique to represent the latent generative factors better. Partially observable environments in reinforcement learning have not yet been carefully studied using unsupervised state representation learning methods. In this article, we create an unsupervised state representation learning scheme for partially observable states. We conducted our experiment on a previous Atari 2600 framework designed to evaluate representation learning models. A contrastive method called Spatiotemporal DeepInfomax (ST-DIM) has shown state-of-the-art performance on this benchmark but remains inferior to its supervised counterpart. Our approach improves ST-DIM when the environment is not fully observable and achieves higher F1 scores and accuracy scores than the supervised learning counterpart. The mean accuracy score averaged over categories of our approach is ~66%, compared to ~38% of supervised learning. The mean F1 score is ~64% to ~33%.

Deep neural networks have been successful in many reinforcement learning settings. However, compared to human learners they are overly data hungry. To build a sample-efficient world model, we apply a transformer to real-world episodes in an autoregressive manner: not only the compact latent states and the taken actions but also the experienced or predicted rewards are fed into the transformer, so that it can attend flexibly to all three modalities at different time steps. The transformer allows our world model to access previous states directly, instead of viewing them through a compressed recurrent state. By utilizing the Transformer-XL architecture, it is able to learn long-term dependencies while staying computationally efficient. Our transformer-based world model (TWM) generates meaningful, new experience, which is used to train a policy that outperforms previous model-free and model-based reinforcement learning algorithms on the Atari 100k benchmark.

We analyze the convergence rate of the unregularized natural policy gradient algorithm with log-linear policy parametrizations in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes. In the deterministic case, when the Q-value is known and can be approximated by a linear combination of a known feature function up to a bias error, we show that a geometrically-increasing step size yields a linear convergence rate towards an optimal policy. We then consider the sample-based case, when the best representation of the Q- value function among linear combinations of a known feature function is known up to an estimation error. In this setting, we show that the algorithm enjoys the same linear guarantees as in the deterministic case up to an error term that depends on the estimation error, the bias error, and the condition number of the feature covariance matrix. Our results build upon the general framework of policy mirror descent and extend previous findings for the softmax tabular parametrization to the log-linear policy class.

This paper presents two algorithms, AdaOFUL and VARA, for online sequential decision-making in the presence of heavy-tailed rewards with only finite variances. For linear stochastic bandits, we address the issue of heavy-tailed rewards by modifying the adaptive Huber regression and proposing AdaOFUL. AdaOFUL achieves a state-of-the-art regret bound of $\widetilde{O}\big(d\big(\sum_{t=1}^T \nu_{t}^2\big)^{1/2}+d\big)$ as if the rewards were uniformly bounded, where $\nu_{t}^2$ is the observed conditional variance of the reward at round $t$, $d$ is the feature dimension, and $\widetilde{O}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic dependence. Building upon AdaOFUL, we propose VARA for linear MDPs, which achieves a tighter variance-aware regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(d\sqrt{HG^*K})$. Here, $H$ is the length of episodes, $K$ is the number of episodes, and $G^*$ is a smaller instance-dependent quantity that can be bounded by other instance-dependent quantities when additional structural conditions on the MDP are satisfied. Our regret bound is superior to the current state-of-the-art bounds in three ways: (1) it depends on a tighter instance-dependent quantity and has optimal dependence on $d$ and $H$, (2) we can obtain further instance-dependent bounds of $G^*$ under additional structural conditions on the MDP, and (3) our regret bound is valid even when rewards have only finite variances, achieving a level of generality unmatched by previous works. Overall, our modified adaptive Huber regression algorithm may serve as a useful building block in the design of algorithms for online problems with heavy-tailed rewards.

Learning physical dynamics in a series of non-stationary environments is a challenging but essential task for model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) with visual inputs. It requires the agent to consistently adapt to novel tasks without forgetting previous knowledge. In this paper, we present a new continual learning approach for visual dynamics modeling and explore its efficacy in visual control and forecasting. The key assumption is that an ideal world model can provide a non-forgetting environment simulator, which enables the agent to optimize the policy in a multi-task learning manner based on the imagined trajectories from the world model. To this end, we first propose the mixture world model that learns task-specific dynamics priors with a mixture of Gaussians, and then introduce a new training strategy to overcome catastrophic forgetting, which we call predictive experience replay. Finally, we extend these methods to continual RL and further address the value estimation problems with the exploratory-conservative behavior learning approach. Our model remarkably outperforms the naive combinations of existing continual learning and visual RL algorithms on DeepMind Control and Meta-World benchmarks with continual visual control tasks. It is also shown to effectively alleviate the forgetting of spatiotemporal dynamics in video prediction datasets with evolving domains.

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) aim to handle changing or partially known system dynamics. To solve them, one typically resorts to robust optimization methods. However, this significantly increases computational complexity and limits scalability in both learning and planning. On the other hand, regularized MDPs show more stability in policy learning without impairing time complexity. Yet, they generally do not encompass uncertainty in the model dynamics. In this work, we aim to learn robust MDPs using regularization. We first show that regularized MDPs are a particular instance of robust MDPs with uncertain reward. We thus establish that policy iteration on reward-robust MDPs can have the same time complexity as on regularized MDPs. We further extend this relationship to MDPs with uncertain transitions: this leads to a regularization term with an additional dependence on the value function. We then generalize regularized MDPs to twice regularized MDPs ($\text{R}^2$ MDPs), i.e., MDPs with $\textit{both}$ value and policy regularization. The corresponding Bellman operators enable us to derive planning and learning schemes with convergence and generalization guarantees, thus reducing robustness to regularization. We numerically show this two-fold advantage on tabular and physical domains, highlighting the fact that $\text{R}^2$ preserves its efficacy in continuous environments.

DataHour sessions are an excellent opportunity for aspiring individuals looking to launch a career in the data-tech industry, including students and freshers. Current professionals seeking to transition into the data-tech domain or data science professionals seeking to enhance their career growth and development can also benefit from these sessions. In this blog post, we will introduce you to some of the upcoming DataHour sessions, including contrastive learning for image classification, feature engineering, POS tagging, document segmentation using Layout Parser, and many more. Each session is designed to provide you with insights into various data tech topics, techniques, and methods. Attendees will learn from experts in the field, gain practical knowledge, and get to ask questions to clear their doubts.

Non-linguistic filler words, such as "uh" or "um", are prevalent in spontaneous speech and serve as indicators for expressing hesitation or uncertainty. Previous works for detecting certain non-linguistic filler words are highly dependent on transcriptions from a well-established commercial automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. However, certain ASR systems are not universally accessible from many aspects, e.g., budget, target languages, and computational power. In this work, we investigate filler word detection system that does not depend on ASR systems. We show that, by using the structured state space sequence model (S4) and neural semi-Markov conditional random fields (semi-CRFs), we achieve an absolute F1 improvement of 6.4% (segment level) and 3.1% (event level) on the PodcastFillers dataset. We also conduct a qualitative analysis on the detected results to analyze the limitations of our proposed system.

Home-assistant robots have been a long-standing research topic, and one of the biggest challenges is searching for required objects in housing environments. Previous object-goal navigation requires the robot to search for a target object category in an unexplored environment, which may not be suitable for home-assistant robots that typically have some level of semantic knowledge of the environment, such as the location of static furniture. In our approach, we leverage this knowledge and the fact that a target object may be located close to its related objects for efficient navigation. To achieve this, we train a graph neural network using the Visual Genome dataset to learn the object co-occurrence relationships and formulate the searching process as iteratively predicting the possible areas where the target object may be located. This approach is entirely zero-shot, meaning it doesn't require new accurate object correlation in the test environment. We empirically show that our method outperforms prior correlational object search algorithms. As our ultimate goal is to build fully autonomous assistant robots for everyday use, we further integrate the task planner for parsing natural language and generating task-completing plans with object navigation to execute human instructions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed pipeline in both the AI2-THOR simulator and a Stretch robot in a real-world environment.