This paper introduces a Monte-Carlo algorithm for online planning in large POMDPs. The algorithm combines a Monte-Carlo update of the agent's belief state with a Monte-Carlo tree search from the current belief state. The new algorithm, POMCP, has two important properties. First, Monte-Carlo sampling is used to break the curse of dimensionality both during belief state updates and during planning. Second, only a black box simulator of the POMDP is required, rather than explicit probability distributions.

We present an algorithm for learning high-treewidth Markov networks where inference is still tractable. This is made possible by exploiting context specific independence and determinism in the domain. The class of models our algorithm can learn has the same desirable properties as thin junction trees: polynomial inference, closed form weight learning, etc., but is much broader. Our algorithm searches for a feature that divides the state space into subspaces where the remaining variables decompose into independent subsets (conditioned on the feature or its negation) and recurses on each subspace/subset of variables until no useful new features can be found. We provide probabilistic performance guarantees for our algorithm under the assumption that the maximum feature length is k (the treewidth can be much larger) and dependences are of bounded strength.

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning with probabilistic deterministic finite automata (PDFA). We define and develop and sampler for a PDFA with an infinite number of states which we call the probabilistic deterministic infinite automata (PDIA). Posterior predictive inference in this model, given a finite training sequence, can be interpreted as averaging over multiple PDFAs of varying structure, where each PDFA is biased towards having few states. We suggest that our method for averaging over PDFAs is a novel approach to predictive distribution smoothing. We test PDIA inference both on PDFA structure learning and on both natural language and DNA data prediction tasks.

The Charles Bonnet Syndrome (CBS) is characterized by complex vivid visual hallucinations in people with, primarily, eye diseases and no other neurological pathology. We present a Deep Boltzmann Machine model of CBS, exploring two core hypotheses: First, that the visual cortex learns a generative or predictive model of sensory input, thus explaining its capability to generate internal imagery. And second, that homeostatic mechanisms stabilize neuronal activity levels, leading to hallucinations being formed when input is lacking. We reproduce a variety of qualitative findings in CBS. We also introduce a modification to the DBM that allows us to model a possible role of acetylcholine in CBS as mediating the balance of feed-forward and feed-back processing.

Straightforward application of Deep Belief Nets (DBNs) to acoustic modeling produces a rich distributed representation of speech data that is useful for recognition and yields impressive results on the speaker-independent TIMIT phone recognition task. However, the first-layer Gaussian-Bernoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (GRBM) has an important limitation, shared with mixtures of diagonal-covariance Gaussians: GRBMs treat different components of the acoustic input vector as conditionally independent given the hidden state. The mean-covariance restricted Boltzmann machine (mcRBM), first introduced for modeling natural images, is a much more representationally efficient and powerful way of modeling the covariance structure of speech data. Every configuration of the precision units of the mcRBM specifies a different precision matrix for the conditional distribution over the acoustic space. In this work, we use the mcRBM to learn features of speech data that serve as input into a standard DBN. The mcRBM features combined with DBNs allow us to achieve a phone error rate of 20.5\%, which is superior to all published results on speaker-independent TIMIT to date.

Arithmetic circuits (ACs) exploit context-specific independence and determinism to allow exact inference even in networks with high treewidth. In this paper, we introduce the first ever approximate inference methods using ACs, for domains where exact inference remains intractable. We propose and evaluate a variety of techniques based on exact compilation, forward sampling, AC structure learning, Markov network parameter learning, variational inference, and Gibbs sampling. In experiments on eight challenging real-world domains, we find that the methods based on sampling and learning work best: one such method (AC2-F) is faster and usually more accurate than loopy belief propagation, mean field, and Gibbs sampling; another (AC2-G) has a running time similar to Gibbs sampling but is consistently more accurate than all baselines.

We present a new way of converting a reversible finite Markov chain into a nonreversible one, with a theoretical guarantee that the asymptotic variance of the MCMC estimator based on the non-reversible chain is reduced. The method is applicable to any reversible chain whose states are not connected through a tree, and can be interpreted graphically as inserting vortices into the state transition graph. Our result confirms that non-reversible chains are fundamentally better than reversible ones in terms of asymptotic performance, and suggests interesting directions for further improving MCMC.

We consider online learning in finite stochastic Markovian environments where in each time step a new reward function is chosen by an oblivious adversary. The goal of the learning agent is to compete with the best stationary policy in terms of the total reward received. In each time step the agent observes the current state and the reward associated with the last transition, however, the agent does not observe the rewards associated with other state-action pairs. The agent is assumed to know the transition probabilities. The state of the art result for this setting is a no-regret algorithm.

Unfortunately, some problems cannot be modeled with state-dependent reward functions, e.g., problems whose objective explicitly implies reducing the uncertainty on the state. To that end, we introduce rho-POMDPs, an extension of POMDPs where the reward function rho depends on the belief state. We show that, under the common assumption that rho is convex, the value function is also convex, what makes it possible to (1) approximate rho arbitrarily well with a piecewise linear and convex (PWLC) function, and (2) use state-of-the-art exact or approximate solving algorithms with limited changes.

We describe a model based on a Boltzmann machine with third-order connections that can learn how to accumulate information about a shape over several fixations. The model uses a retina that only has enough high resolution pixels to cover a small area of the image, so it must decide on a sequence of fixations and it must combine the glimpse" at each fixation with the location of the fixation before integrating the information with information from other glimpses of the same object. We evaluate this model on a synthetic dataset and two image classification datasets, showing that it can perform at least as well as a model trained on whole images."