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 Markov Models


Explanation through Reward Model Reconciliation using POMDP Tree Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are increasingly used in mission-critical applications, promoting user-trust of these systems will be essential to their success. Ensuring users understand the models over which algorithms reason promotes user trust. This work seeks to reconcile differences between the reward model that an algorithm uses for online partially observable Markov decision (POMDP) planning and the implicit reward model assumed by a human user. Action discrepancies, differences in decisions made by an algorithm and user, are leveraged to estimate a user's objectives as expressed in weightings of a reward function.


Exploring Segmentation Approaches for Neural Machine Translation of Code-Switched Egyptian Arabic-English Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data sparsity is one of the main challenges posed by code-switching (CS), which is further exacerbated in the case of morphologically rich languages. For the task of machine translation (MT), morphological segmentation has proven successful in alleviating data sparsity in monolingual contexts; however, it has not been investigated for CS settings. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of different segmentation approaches on MT performance, covering morphology-based and frequency-based segmentation techniques. We experiment on MT from code-switched Arabic-English to English. We provide detailed analysis, examining a variety of conditions, such as data size and sentences with different degrees of CS. Empirical results show that morphology-aware segmenters perform the best in segmentation tasks but under-perform in MT. Nevertheless, we find that the choice of the segmentation setup to use for MT is highly dependent on the data size. For extreme low-resource scenarios, a combination of frequency and morphology-based segmentations is shown to perform the best. For more resourced settings, such a combination does not bring significant improvements over the use of frequency-based segmentation.


SRL-Assisted AFM: Generating Planar Unstructured Quadrilateral Meshes with Supervised and Reinforcement Learning-Assisted Advancing Front Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-quality mesh generation is the foundation of accurate finite element analysis. Due to the vast interior vertices search space and complex initial boundaries, mesh generation for complicated domains requires substantial manual processing and has long been considered the most challenging and time-consuming bottleneck of the entire modeling and analysis process. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework named ``SRL-assisted AFM" for meshing planar geometries by combining the advancing front method with neural networks that select reference vertices and update the front boundary using ``policy networks." These deep neural networks are trained using a unique pipeline that combines supervised learning with reinforcement learning to iteratively improve mesh quality. First, we generate different initial boundaries by randomly sampling points in a square domain and connecting them sequentially. These boundaries are used for obtaining input meshes and extracting training datasets in the supervised learning module. We then iteratively improve the reinforcement learning model performance with reward functions designed for special requirements, such as improving the mesh quality and controlling the number and distribution of extraordinary points. Our proposed supervised learning neural networks achieve an accuracy higher than 98% on predicting commercial software. The final reinforcement learning neural networks automatically generate high-quality quadrilateral meshes for complex planar domains with sharp features and boundary layers.


Indexability of Finite State Restless Multi-Armed Bandit and Rollout Policy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider finite state restless multi-armed bandit problem. The decision maker can act on M bandits out of N bandits in each time step. The play of arm (active arm) yields state dependent rewards based on action and when the arm is not played, it also provides rewards based on the state and action. The objective of the decision maker is to maximize the infinite horizon discounted reward. The classical approach to restless bandits is Whittle index policy. In such policy, the M arms with highest indices are played at each time step. Here, one decouples the restless bandits problem by analyzing relaxed constrained restless bandits problem. Then by Lagrangian relaxation problem, one decouples restless bandits problem into N single-armed restless bandit problems. We analyze the single-armed restless bandit. In order to study the Whittle index policy, we show structural results on the single armed bandit model. We define indexability and show indexability in special cases. We propose an alternative approach to verify the indexable criteria for a single armed bandit model using value iteration algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm with different examples. We provide insight on condition of indexability of restless bandits using different structural assumptions on transition probability and reward matrices. We also study online rollout policy and discuss the computation complexity of algorithm and compare that with complexity of index computation. Numerical examples illustrate that index policy and rollout policy performs better than myopic policy.


Time series clustering based on prediction accuracy of global forecasting models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, a novel method to perform model-based clustering of time series is proposed. The procedure relies on two iterative steps: (i) K global forecasting models are fitted via pooling by considering the series pertaining to each cluster and (ii) each series is assigned to the group associated with the model producing the best forecasts according to a particular criterion. Unlike most techniques proposed in the literature, the method considers the predictive accuracy as the main element for constructing the clustering partition, which contains groups jointly minimizing the overall forecasting error. Thus, the approach leads to a new clustering paradigm where the quality of the clustering solution is measured in terms of its predictive capability. In addition, the procedure gives rise to an effective mechanism for selecting the number of clusters in a time series database and can be used in combination with any class of regression model. An extensive simulation study shows that our method outperforms several alternative techniques concerning both clustering effectiveness and predictive accuracy. The approach is also applied to perform clustering in several datasets used as standard benchmarks in the time series literature, obtaining great results.


New bootstrap tests for categorical time series. A comparative study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problem of testing the equality of the generating processes of two categorical time series is addressed in this work. To this aim, we propose three tests relying on a dissimilarity measure between categorical processes. Particular versions of these tests are constructed by considering three specific distances evaluating discrepancy between the marginal distributions and the serial dependence patterns of both processes. Proper estimates of these dissimilarities are an essential element of the constructed tests, which are based on the bootstrap. Specifically, a parametric bootstrap method assuming the true generating models and extensions of the moving blocks bootstrap and the stationary bootstrap are considered. The approaches are assessed in a broad simulation study including several types of categorical models with different degrees of complexity. Advantages and disadvantages of each one of the methods are properly discussed according to their behavior under the null and the alternative hypothesis. The impact that some important input parameters have on the results of the tests is also analyzed. An application involving biological sequences highlights the usefulness of the proposed techniques.


Implementing Reinforcement Learning Datacenter Congestion Control in NVIDIA NICs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As communication protocols evolve, datacenter network utilization increases. As a result, congestion is more frequent, causing higher latency and packet loss. Combined with the increasing complexity of workloads, manual design of congestion control (CC) algorithms becomes extremely difficult. This calls for the development of AI approaches to replace the human effort. Unfortunately, it is currently not possible to deploy AI models on network devices due to their limited computational capabilities. Here, we offer a solution to this problem by building a computationally-light solution based on a recent reinforcement learning CC algorithm [arXiv:2207.02295]. We reduce the inference time of RL-CC by x500 by distilling its complex neural network into decision trees. This transformation enables real-time inference within the $\mu$-sec decision-time requirement, with a negligible effect on quality. We deploy the transformed policy on NVIDIA NICs in a live cluster. Compared to popular CC algorithms used in production, RL-CC is the only method that performs well on all benchmarks tested over a large range of number of flows. It balances multiple metrics simultaneously: bandwidth, latency, and packet drops. These results suggest that data-driven methods for CC are feasible, challenging the prior belief that handcrafted heuristics are necessary to achieve optimal performance.


Model-free Motion Planning of Autonomous Agents for Complex Tasks in Partially Observable Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion planning of autonomous agents in partially known environments with incomplete information is a challenging problem, particularly for complex tasks. This paper proposes a model-free reinforcement learning approach to address this problem. We formulate motion planning as a probabilistic-labeled partially observable Markov decision process (PL-POMDP) problem and use linear temporal logic (LTL) to express the complex task. The LTL formula is then converted to a limit-deterministic generalized B\"uchi automaton (LDGBA). The problem is redefined as finding an optimal policy on the product of PL-POMDP with LDGBA based on model-checking techniques to satisfy the complex task. We implement deep Q learning with long short-term memory (LSTM) to process the observation history and task recognition. Our contributions include the proposed method, the utilization of LTL and LDGBA, and the LSTM-enhanced deep Q learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method by conducting simulations in various environments, including grid worlds, a virtual office, and a multi-agent warehouse. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed method effectively addresses environment, action, and observation uncertainties. This indicates its potential for real-world applications, including the control of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).


Importance Weighted Expectation-Maximization for Protein Sequence Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing protein sequences with desired biological function is crucial in biology and chemistry. Recent machine learning methods use a surrogate sequence-function model to replace the expensive wet-lab validation. How can we efficiently generate diverse and novel protein sequences with high fitness? In this paper, we propose IsEM-Pro, an approach to generate protein sequences towards a given fitness criterion. At its core, IsEM-Pro is a latent generative model, augmented by combinatorial structure features from a separately learned Markov random fields (MRFs). We develop an Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization method (MCEM) to learn the model. During inference, sampling from its latent space enhances diversity while its MRFs features guide the exploration in high fitness regions. Experiments on eight protein sequence design tasks show that our IsEM-Pro outperforms the previous best methods by at least 55% on average fitness score and generates more diverse and novel protein sequences.


Semi-Infinitely Constrained Markov Decision Processes and Efficient Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel generalization of constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) that we call the \emph{semi-infinitely constrained Markov decision process} (SICMDP). Particularly, we consider a continuum of constraints instead of a finite number of constraints as in the case of ordinary CMDPs. We also devise two reinforcement learning algorithms for SICMDPs that we call SI-CRL and SI-CPO. SI-CRL is a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm. Given an estimate of the transition model, we first transform the reinforcement learning problem into a linear semi-infinitely programming (LSIP) problem and then use the dual exchange method in the LSIP literature to solve it. SI-CPO is a policy optimization algorithm. Borrowing the ideas from the cooperative stochastic approximation approach, we make alternative updates to the policy parameters to maximize the reward or minimize the cost. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply tools from semi-infinitely programming (SIP) to solve constrained reinforcement learning problems. We present theoretical analysis for SI-CRL and SI-CPO, identifying their iteration complexity and sample complexity. We also conduct extensive numerical examples to illustrate the SICMDP model and demonstrate that our proposed algorithms are able to solve complex sequential decision-making tasks leveraging modern deep reinforcement learning techniques.