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 Markov Models


Neural Boltzmann Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conditional generative models are capable of using contextual information as input to create new imaginative outputs. Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are one class of conditional generative models that have proven to be especially adept at modeling noisy discrete or continuous data, but the lack of expressivity in CRBMs have limited their widespread adoption. Here we introduce Neural Boltzmann Machines (NBMs) which generalize CRBMs by converting each of the CRBM parameters to their own neural networks that are allowed to be functions of the conditional inputs. NBMs are highly flexible conditional generative models that can be trained via stochastic gradient descent to approximately maximize the log-likelihood of the data. We demonstrate the utility of NBMs especially with normally distributed data which has historically caused problems for Gaussian-Bernoulli CRBMs.


Horizon-free Reinforcement Learning in Adversarial Linear Mixture MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is no harder than bandits when the total reward is bounded by $1$, and proved regret bounds that have a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon $H$. However, it remains an open question that if such results can be carried over to adversarial RL, where the reward is adversarially chosen at each episode. In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively by proposing the first horizon-free policy search algorithm. To tackle the challenges caused by exploration and adversarially chosen reward, our algorithm employs (1) a variance-uncertainty-aware weighted least square estimator for the transition kernel; and (2) an occupancy measure-based technique for the online search of a \emph{stochastic} policy. We show that our algorithm achieves an $\tilde{O}\big((d+\log (|\mathcal{S}|^2 |\mathcal{A}|))\sqrt{K}\big)$ regret with full-information feedback, where $d$ is the dimension of a known feature mapping linearly parametrizing the unknown transition kernel of the MDP, $K$ is the number of episodes, $|\mathcal{S}|$ and $|\mathcal{A}|$ are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. We also provide hardness results and regret lower bounds to justify the near optimality of our algorithm and the unavoidability of $\log|\mathcal{S}|$ and $\log|\mathcal{A}|$ in the regret bound.


Welfare Maximization Algorithm for Solving Budget-Constrained Multi-Component POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide an efficient way to model real-world sequential decision making processes. Motivated by the problem of maintenance and inspection of a group of infrastructure components with independent dynamics, this paper presents an algorithm to find the optimal policy for a multi-component budget-constrained POMDP. We first introduce a budgeted-POMDP model (b-POMDP) which enables us to find the optimal policy for a POMDP while adhering to budget constraints. Next, we prove that the value function or maximal collected reward for a b-POMDP is a concave function of the budget for the finite horizon case. Our second contribution is an algorithm to calculate the optimal policy for a multi-component budget-constrained POMDP by finding the optimal budget split among the individual component POMDPs. The optimal budget split is posed as a welfare maximization problem and the solution is computed by exploiting the concave nature of the value function. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by proposing a maintenance and inspection policy for a group of real-world infrastructure components with different deterioration dynamics, inspection and maintenance costs. We show that the proposed algorithm vastly outperforms the policy currently used in practice.


Delay-Adapted Policy Optimization and Improved Regret for Adversarial MDP with Delayed Bandit Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Policy Optimization (PO) is one of the most popular methods in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Thus, theoretical guarantees for PO algorithms have become especially important to the RL community. In this paper, we study PO in adversarial MDPs with a challenge that arises in almost every real-world application -- \textit{delayed bandit feedback}. We give the first near-optimal regret bounds for PO in tabular MDPs, and may even surpass state-of-the-art (which uses less efficient methods). Our novel Delay-Adapted PO (DAPO) is easy to implement and to generalize, allowing us to extend our algorithm to: (i) infinite state space under the assumption of linear $Q$-function, proving the first regret bounds for delayed feedback with function approximation. (ii) deep RL, demonstrating its effectiveness in experiments on MuJoCo domains.


More for Less: Safe Policy Improvement With Stronger Performance Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In an offline reinforcement learning setting, the safe policy improvement (SPI) problem aims to improve the performance of a behavior policy according to which sample data has been generated. State-of-the-art approaches to SPI require a high number of samples to provide practical probabilistic guarantees on the improved policy's performance. We present a novel approach to the SPI problem that provides the means to require less data for such guarantees. Specifically, to prove the correctness of these guarantees, we devise implicit transformations on the data set and the underlying environment model that serve as theoretical foundations to derive tighter improvement bounds for SPI. Our empirical evaluation, using the well-established SPI with baseline bootstrapping (SPIBB) algorithm, on standard benchmarks shows that our method indeed significantly reduces the sample complexity of the SPIBB algorithm.


Thompson Sampling for Parameterized Markov Decision Processes with Uninformative Actions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study parameterized MDPs (PMDPs) in which the key parameters of interest are unknown and must be learned using Bayesian inference. One key defining feature of such models is the presence of "uninformative" actions that provide no information about the unknown parameters. We contribute a set of assumptions for PMDPs under which Thompson sampling guarantees an asymptotically optimal expected regret bound of $O(T^{-1})$, which are easily verified for many classes of problems such as queuing, inventory control, and dynamic pricing.


Astronomia ex machina: a history, primer, and outlook on neural networks in astronomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this review, we explore the historical development and future prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning in astronomy. We trace the evolution of connectionism in astronomy through its three waves, from the early use of multilayer perceptrons, to the rise of convolutional and recurrent neural networks, and finally to the current era of unsupervised and generative deep learning methods. With the exponential growth of astronomical data, deep learning techniques offer an unprecedented opportunity to uncover valuable insights and tackle previously intractable problems. As we enter the anticipated fourth wave of astronomical connectionism, we argue for the adoption of GPT-like foundation models fine-tuned for astronomical applications. Such models could harness the wealth of high-quality, multimodal astronomical data to serve state-of-the-art downstream tasks. To keep pace with advancements driven by Big Tech, we propose a collaborative, open-source approach within the astronomy community to develop and maintain these foundation models, fostering a symbiotic relationship between AI and astronomy that capitalizes on the unique strengths of both fields.


Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Network Routing in Integrated Access Backhaul Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the problem of wireless routing in integrated access backhaul (IAB) networks consisting of fiber-connected and wireless base stations and multiple users. The physical constraints of these networks prevent the use of a central controller, and base stations have limited access to real-time network conditions. We aim to maximize packet arrival ratio while minimizing their latency, for this purpose, we formulate the problem as a multi-agent partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). To solve this problem, we develop a Relational Advantage Actor Critic (Relational A2C) algorithm that uses Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) and information about similar destinations to derive a joint routing policy on a distributed basis. We present three training paradigms for this algorithm and demonstrate its ability to achieve near-centralized performance. Our results show that Relational A2C outperforms other reinforcement learning algorithms, leading to increased network efficiency and reduced selfish agent behavior. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to optimize routing strategy for IAB networks.


Identify, Estimate and Bound the Uncertainty of Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising approach for developing more intelligent autonomous vehicles (AVs). A typical DRL application on AVs is to train a neural network-based driving policy. However, the black-box nature of neural networks can result in unpredictable decision failures, making such AVs unreliable. To this end, this work proposes a method to identify and protect unreliable decisions of a DRL driving policy. The basic idea is to estimate and constrain the policy's performance uncertainty, which quantifies potential performance drop due to insufficient training data or network fitting errors. By constraining the uncertainty, the DRL model's performance is always greater than that of a baseline policy. The uncertainty caused by insufficient data is estimated by the bootstrapped method. Then, the uncertainty caused by the network fitting error is estimated using an ensemble network. Finally, a baseline policy is added as the performance lower bound to avoid potential decision failures. The overall framework is called uncertainty-bound reinforcement learning (UBRL). The proposed UBRL is evaluated on DRL policies with different amounts of training data, taking an unprotected left-turn driving case as an example. The result shows that the UBRL method can identify potentially unreliable decisions of DRL policy. The UBRL guarantees to outperform baseline policy even when the DRL policy is not well-trained and has high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the performance of UBRL improves with more training data. Such a method is valuable for the DRL application on real-road driving and provides a metric to evaluate a DRL policy.


From Denoising Diffusions to Denoising Markov Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Denoising diffusions are state-of-the-art generative models exhibiting remarkable empirical performance. They work by diffusing the data distribution into a Gaussian distribution and then learning to reverse this noising process to obtain synthetic datapoints. The denoising diffusion relies on approximations of the logarithmic derivatives of the noised data densities using score matching. Such models can also be used to perform approximate posterior simulation when one can only sample from the prior and likelihood. We propose a unifying framework generalising this approach to a wide class of spaces and leading to an original extension of score matching. We illustrate the resulting models on various applications.