In this paper, we examine cloud-edge-terminal IoT networks, where edges undertake a range of typical dynamic scheduling tasks. In these IoT networks, a central policy for each task can be constructed at a cloud server. The central policy can be then used by the edges conducting the task, thereby mitigating the need for them to learn their own policy from scratch. Furthermore, this central policy can be collaboratively learned at the cloud server by aggregating local experiences from the edges, thanks to the hierarchical architecture of the IoT networks. To this end, we propose a novel collaborative policy learning framework for dynamic scheduling tasks using federated reinforcement learning. For effective learning, our framework adaptively selects the tasks for collaborative learning in each round, taking into account the need for fairness among tasks. In addition, as a key enabler of the framework, we propose an edge-agnostic policy structure that enables the aggregation of local policies from different edges. We then provide the convergence analysis of the framework. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms the approaches without collaborative policy learning. Notably, it accelerates the learning speed of the policies and allows newly arrived edges to adapt to their tasks more easily.

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning algorithms rely crucially on the assumption that the positions of the missing observations \emph{within the observation sequence} are known. In the natural sciences, where this assumption is often violated, special variants of HMM, commonly known as Silent-state HMMs (SHMMs), are used. Despite their widespread use, these algorithms strongly rely on specific structural assumptions of the underlying chain, such as acyclicity, thus limiting the applicability of these methods. Moreover, even in the acyclic case, it has been shown that these methods can lead to poor reconstruction. In this paper we consider the general problem of learning an HMM from data with unknown missing observation locations. We provide reconstruction algorithms that do not require any assumptions about the structure of the underlying chain, and can also be used with limited prior knowledge, unlike SHMM. We evaluate and compare the algorithms in a variety of scenarios, measuring their reconstruction precision, and robustness under model miss-specification. Notably, we show that under proper specifications one can reconstruct the process dynamics as well as if the missing observations positions were known.

Inclinometer probes are devices that can be used to measure deformations within earthwork slopes. This paper demonstrates a novel application of Bayesian techniques to real-world inclinometer data, providing both anomaly detection and forecasting. Specifically, this paper details an analysis of data collected from inclinometer data across the entire UK rail network. Practitioners have effectively two goals when processing monitoring data. The first is to identify any anomalous or dangerous movements, and the second is to predict potential future adverse scenarios by forecasting. In this paper we apply Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques by implementing a Bayesian approach to anomaly detection and forecasting for inclinometer data. Subsequently, both costs and risks may be minimised by quantifying and evaluating the appropriate uncertainties. This framework may then act as an enabler for enhanced decision making and risk analysis. We show that inclinometer data can be described by a latent autocorrelated Markov process derived from measurements. This can be used as the transition model of a non-linear Bayesian filter. This allows for the prediction of system states. This learnt latent model also allows for the detection of anomalies: observations that are far from their expected value may be considered to have `high surprisal', that is they have a high information content relative to the model encoding represented by the learnt latent model. We successfully apply the forecasting and anomaly detection techniques to a large real-world data set in a computationally efficient manner. Although this paper studies inclinometers in particular, the techniques are broadly applicable to all areas of engineering UQ and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM).

We consider learning a probabilistic classifier from partially-labelled supervision (inputs denoted with multiple possibilities) using standard neural architectures with a softmax as the final layer. We identify a bias phenomenon that can arise from the softmax layer in even simple architectures that prevents proper exploration of alternative options, making the dynamics of gradient descent overly sensitive to initialization. We introduce a novel loss function that allows for unbiased exploration within the space of alternative outputs. We give a theoretical justification for our loss function, and provide an extensive evaluation of its impact on synthetic data, on standard partially labelled benchmarks and on a contributed novel benchmark related to an existing rule learning challenge.

Diffusion on graphs is ubiquitous with numerous high-impact applications. In these applications, complete diffusion histories play an essential role in terms of identifying dynamical patterns, reflecting on precaution actions, and forecasting intervention effects. Despite their importance, complete diffusion histories are rarely available and are highly challenging to reconstruct due to ill-posedness, explosive search space, and scarcity of training data. To date, few methods exist for diffusion history reconstruction. They are exclusively based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) formulation and require to know true diffusion parameters. In this paper, we study an even harder problem, namely reconstructing Diffusion history from A single SnapsHot} (DASH), where we seek to reconstruct the history from only the final snapshot without knowing true diffusion parameters. We start with theoretical analyses that reveal a fundamental limitation of the MLE formulation. We prove: (a) estimation error of diffusion parameters is unavoidable due to NP-hardness of diffusion parameter estimation, and (b) the MLE formulation is sensitive to estimation error of diffusion parameters. To overcome the inherent limitation of the MLE formulation, we propose a novel barycenter formulation: finding the barycenter of the posterior distribution of histories, which is provably stable against the estimation error of diffusion parameters. We further develop an effective solver named DIffusion hiTting Times with Optimal proposal (DITTO) by reducing the problem to estimating posterior expected hitting times via the Metropolis--Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo method (M--H MCMC) and employing an unsupervised graph neural network to learn an optimal proposal to accelerate the convergence of M--H MCMC. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

We study sample efficient reinforcement learning (RL) under the general framework of interactive decision making, which includes Markov decision process (MDP), partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), and predictive state representation (PSR) as special cases. Toward finding the minimum assumption that empowers sample efficient learning, we propose a novel complexity measure, generalized eluder coefficient (GEC), which characterizes the fundamental tradeoff between exploration and exploitation in online interactive decision making. In specific, GEC captures the hardness of exploration by comparing the error of predicting the performance of the updated policy with the in-sample training error evaluated on the historical data. We show that RL problems with low GEC form a remarkably rich class, which subsumes low Bellman eluder dimension problems, bilinear class, low witness rank problems, PO-bilinear class, and generalized regular PSR, where generalized regular PSR, a new tractable PSR class identified by us, includes nearly all known tractable POMDPs and PSRs. Furthermore, in terms of algorithm design, we propose a generic posterior sampling algorithm, which can be implemented in both model-free and model-based fashion, under both fully observable and partially observable settings. The proposed algorithm modifies the standard posterior sampling algorithm in two aspects: (i) we use an optimistic prior distribution that biases towards hypotheses with higher values and (ii) a loglikelihood function is set to be the empirical loss evaluated on the historical data, where the choice of loss function supports both model-free and model-based learning. We prove that the proposed algorithm is sample efficient by establishing a sublinear regret upper bound in terms of GEC. In summary, we provide a new and unified understanding of both fully observable and partially observable RL.

Neuro-symbolic artificial intelligence is an emerging area that combines traditional symbolic techniques with neural networks. In this paper, we consider its application to sequential decision making under uncertainty. We introduce neuro-symbolic partially observable Markov decision processes (NS-POMDPs), which model an agent that perceives a continuous-state environment using a neural network and makes decisions symbolically, and study the problem of optimising discounted cumulative rewards. This requires functions over continuous-state beliefs, for which we propose a novel piecewise linear and convex representation (P-PWLC) in terms of polyhedra covering the continuous-state space and value vectors, and extend Bellman backups to this representation. We prove the convexity and continuity of value functions and present two value iteration algorithms that ensure finite representability by exploiting the underlying structure of the continuous-state model and the neural perception mechanism. The first is a classical (exact) value iteration algorithm extending $\alpha$-functions of Porta et al (2006) to the P-PWLC representation for continuous-state spaces. The second is a point-based (approximate) method called NS-HSVI, which uses the P-PWLC representation and belief-value induced functions to approximate value functions from below and above for two types of beliefs, particle-based and region-based. Using a prototype implementation, we show the practical applicability of our approach on two case studies that employ (trained) ReLU neural networks as perception functions, dynamic car parking and an aircraft collision avoidance system, by synthesising (approximately) optimal strategies. An experimental comparison with the finite-state POMDP solver SARSOP demonstrates that NS-HSVI is more robust to particle disturbances.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in complex robotic systems (eg. quadruped locomotion). In previous works, the RL-based controller was typically implemented as a single neural network with concatenated observation input. However, the corresponding learned policy is highly task-specific. Since all motors are controlled in a centralized way, out-of-distribution local observations can impact global motors through the single coupled neural network policy. In contrast, animals and humans can control their limbs separately. Inspired by this biological phenomenon, we propose a Decentralized motor skill (DEMOS) learning algorithm to automatically discover motor groups that can be decoupled from each other while preserving essential connections and then learn a decentralized motor control policy. Our method improves the robustness and generalization of the policy without sacrificing performance. Experiments on quadruped and humanoid robots demonstrate that the learned policy is robust against local motor malfunctions and can be transferred to new tasks.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms have shown tremendous success in simulation environments, but their application to real-world problems faces significant challenges, with safety being a major concern. In particular, enforcing state-wise constraints is essential for many challenging tasks such as autonomous driving and robot manipulation. However, existing safe RL algorithms under the framework of Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) do not consider state-wise constraints. To address this gap, we propose State-wise Constrained Policy Optimization (SCPO), the first general-purpose policy search algorithm for state-wise constrained reinforcement learning. SCPO provides guarantees for state-wise constraint satisfaction in expectation. In particular, we introduce the framework of Maximum Markov Decision Process, and prove that the worst-case safety violation is bounded under SCPO. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on training neural network policies for extensive robot locomotion tasks, where the agent must satisfy a variety of state-wise safety constraints. Our results show that SCPO significantly outperforms existing methods and can handle state-wise constraints in high-dimensional robotics tasks.

We develop an algorithm for automatic differentiation of Metropolis-Hastings samplers, allowing us to differentiate through probabilistic inference, even if the model has discrete components within it. Our approach fuses recent advances in stochastic automatic differentiation with traditional Markov chain coupling schemes, providing an unbiased and low-variance gradient estimator. This allows us to apply gradient-based optimization to objectives expressed as expectations over intractable target densities. We demonstrate our approach by finding an ambiguous observation in a Gaussian mixture model and by maximizing the specific heat in an Ising model.