Markov Models
Probabilistic Black-Box Checking via Active MDP Learning
Shijubo, Junya, Waga, Masaki, Suenaga, Kohei
We introduce a novel methodology for testing stochastic black-box systems, frequently encountered in embedded systems. Our approach enhances the established black-box checking (BBC) technique to address stochastic behavior. Traditional BBC primarily involves iteratively identifying an input that breaches the system's specifications by executing the following three phases: the learning phase to construct an automaton approximating the black box's behavior, the synthesis phase to identify a candidate counterexample from the learned automaton, and the validation phase to validate the obtained candidate counterexample and the learned automaton against the original black-box system. Our method, ProbBBC, refines the conventional BBC approach by (1) employing an active Markov Decision Process (MDP) learning method during the learning phase, (2) incorporating probabilistic model checking in the synthesis phase, and (3) applying statistical hypothesis testing in the validation phase. ProbBBC uniquely integrates these techniques rather than merely substituting each method in the traditional BBC; for instance, the statistical hypothesis testing and the MDP learning procedure exchange information regarding the black-box system's observation with one another. The experiment results suggest that ProbBBC outperforms an existing method, especially for systems with limited observation.
An Adaptive Optimization Approach to Personalized Financial Incentives in Mobile Behavioral Weight Loss Interventions
Li, Qiaomei, Gavin, Kara L., Voils, Corrine I., Mintz, Yonatan
Obesity is a critical healthcare issue affecting the United States. The least risky treatments available for obesity are behavioral interventions meant to promote diet and exercise. Often these interventions contain a mobile component that allows interventionists to collect participants level data and provide participants with incentives and goals to promote long term behavioral change. Recently, there has been interest in using direct financial incentives to promote behavior change. However, adherence is challenging in these interventions, as each participant will react differently to different incentive structure and amounts, leading researchers to consider personalized interventions. The key challenge for personalization, is that the clinicians do not know a priori how best to administer incentives to participants, and given finite intervention budgets how to disburse costly resources efficiently. In this paper, we consider this challenge of designing personalized weight loss interventions that use direct financial incentives to motivate weight loss while remaining within a budget. We create a machine learning approach that is able to predict how individuals may react to different incentive schedules within the context of a behavioral intervention. We use this predictive model in an adaptive framework that over the course of the intervention computes what incentives to disburse to participants and remain within the study budget. We provide both theoretical guarantees for our modeling and optimization approaches as well as demonstrate their performance in a simulated weight loss study. Our results highlight the cost efficiency and effectiveness of our personalized intervention design for weight loss.
Brain in the Dark: Design Principles for Neuro-mimetic Learning and Inference
Bazargani, Mehran H., Urbas, Szymon, Friston, Karl
Even though the brain operates in pure darkness, within the skull, it can infer the most likely causes of its sensory input. An approach to modelling this inference is to assume that the brain has a generative model of the world, which it can invert to infer the hidden causes behind its sensory stimuli, that is, perception. This assumption raises key questions: how to formulate the problem of designing brain-inspired generative models, how to invert them for the tasks of inference and learning, what is the appropriate loss function to be optimised, and, most importantly, what are the different choices of mean field approximation (MFA) and their implications for variational inference (VI).
Training Discrete Energy-Based Models with Energy Discrepancy
Schröder, Tobias, Ou, Zijing, Li, Yingzhen, Duncan, Andrew B.
Training energy-based models (EBMs) on discrete spaces is challenging because sampling over such spaces can be difficult. We propose to train discrete EBMs with energy discrepancy (ED), a novel type of contrastive loss functional which only requires the evaluation of the energy function at data points and their perturbed counter parts, thus not relying on sampling strategies like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Energy discrepancy offers theoretical guarantees for a broad class of perturbation processes of which we investigate three types: perturbations based on Bernoulli noise, based on deterministic transforms, and based on neighbourhood structures. We demonstrate their relative performance on lattice Ising models, binary synthetic data, and discrete image data sets.
Who Needs to Know? Minimal Knowledge for Optimal Coordination
Lauffer, Niklas, Shah, Ameesh, Carroll, Micah, Dennis, Michael, Russell, Stuart
If much of the information is irrelevant, it's easy to To optimally coordinate with others in cooperative imagine how this could lead to significant increases in efficiency games, it is often crucial to have information for finding optimal policies. For example, this could about one's collaborators: successful driving requires allow a focused effort on few-shot or zero-shot adaptation to understanding which side of the road to co-players (Zand et al., 2022; Albrecht & Stone, 2017; Stone drive on. However, not every feature of collaborators et al., 2010; Hu et al., 2020) or more efficient DecPOMDP is strategically relevant: the fine-grained planning algorithms (Szer & Charpillet, 2006; Seuken & acceleration of drivers may be ignored while maintaining Zilberstein, 2007). In order to leverage these benefits, we optimal coordination. We show that there build the theory, data structures, and algorithms required to is a well-defined dichotomy between strategically distinguish between relevant and irrelevant information.
Deep reinforcement learning for the dynamic vehicle dispatching problem: An event-based approach
Cordeiro, Edyvalberty Alenquer, Pitombeira-Neto, Anselmo Ramalho
The dynamic vehicle dispatching problem corresponds to deciding which vehicles to assign to requests that arise stochastically over time and space. It emerges in diverse areas, such as in the assignment of trucks to loads to be transported; in emergency systems; and in ride-hailing services. In this paper, we model the problem as a semi-Markov decision process, which allows us to treat time as continuous. In this setting, decision epochs coincide with discrete events whose time intervals are random. We argue that an event-based approach substantially reduces the combinatorial complexity of the decision space and overcomes other limitations of discrete-time models often proposed in the literature. In order to test our approach, we develop a new discrete-event simulator and use double deep q-learning to train our decision agents. Numerical experiments are carried out in realistic scenarios using data from New York City. We compare the policies obtained through our approach with heuristic policies often used in practice. Results show that our policies exhibit better average waiting times, cancellation rates and total service times, with reduction in average waiting times of up to 50% relative to the other tested heuristic policies.
DIALGEN: Collaborative Human-LM Generated Dialogues for Improved Understanding of Human-Human Conversations
Lu, Bo-Ru, Haduong, Nikita, Lee, Chia-Hsuan, Wu, Zeqiu, Cheng, Hao, Koester, Paul, Utke, Jean, Yu, Tao, Smith, Noah A., Ostendorf, Mari
Applications that could benefit from automatic understanding of human-human conversations often come with challenges associated with private information in real-world data such as call center or clinical conversations. Working with protected data also increases costs of annotation, which limits technology development. To address these challenges, we propose DIALGEN, a human-in-the-loop semi-automated dialogue generation framework. DIALGEN uses a language model (ChatGPT) that can follow schema and style specifications to produce fluent conversational text, generating a complex conversation through iteratively generating subdialogues and using human feedback to correct inconsistencies or redirect the flow. In experiments on structured summarization of agent-client information gathering calls, framed as dialogue state tracking, we show that DIALGEN data enables significant improvement in model performance.
The complexity of non-stationary reinforcement learning
Papadimitriou, Christos, Peng, Binghui
The problem of continual learning in the domain of reinforcement learning, often called non-stationary reinforcement learning, has been identified as an important challenge to the application of reinforcement learning. We prove a worst-case complexity result, which we believe captures this challenge: Modifying the probabilities or the reward of a single state-action pair in a reinforcement learning problem requires an amount of time almost as large as the number of states in order to keep the value function up to date, unless the strong exponential time hypothesis (SETH) is false; SETH is a widely accepted strengthening of the P $\neq$ NP conjecture. Recall that the number of states in current applications of reinforcement learning is typically astronomical. In contrast, we show that just $\textit{adding}$ a new state-action pair is considerably easier to implement.
Fast and Functional Structured Data Generators Rooted in Out-of-Equilibrium Physics
Carbone, Alessandra, Decelle, Aurélien, Rosset, Lorenzo, Seoane, Beatriz
In this study, we address the challenge of using energy-based models to produce high-quality, label-specific data in complex structured datasets, such as population genetics, RNA or protein sequences data. Traditional training methods encounter difficulties due to inefficient Markov chain Monte Carlo mixing, which affects the diversity of synthetic data and increases generation times. To address these issues, we use a novel training algorithm that exploits non-equilibrium effects. This approach, applied on the Restricted Boltzmann Machine, improves the model's ability to correctly classify samples and generate high-quality synthetic data in only a few sampling steps. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by its successful application to four different types of data: handwritten digits, mutations of human genomes classified by continental origin, functionally characterized sequences of an enzyme protein family, and homologous RNA sequences from specific taxonomies.
A kernel Stein test of goodness of fit for sequential models
Baum, Jerome, Kanagawa, Heishiro, Gretton, Arthur
We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.