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 Markov Models


Identification of Driving Heterogeneity using Action-chains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current approaches to identifying driving heterogeneity face challenges in capturing the diversity of driving characteristics and understanding the fundamental patterns from a driving behaviour mechanism standpoint. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for identifying driving heterogeneity from an Action-chain perspective. First, a rule-based segmentation technique that considers the physical meanings of driving behaviour is proposed. Next, an Action phase Library including descriptions of various driving behaviour patterns is created based on the segmentation findings. The Action-chain concept is then introduced by implementing Action phase transition probability, followed by a method for evaluating driving heterogeneity. Employing real-world datasets for evaluation, our approach effectively identifies driving heterogeneity for both individual drivers and traffic flow while providing clear interpretations. These insights can aid the development of accurate driving behaviour theory and traffic flow models, ultimately benefiting traffic performance, and potentially leading to aspects such as improved road capacity and safety.


Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with State Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In real-world multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) applications, agents may not have perfect state information (e.g., due to inaccurate measurement or malicious attacks), which challenges the robustness of agents' policies. Though robustness is getting important in MARL deployment, little prior work has studied state uncertainties in MARL, neither in problem formulation nor algorithm design. Motivated by this robustness issue and the lack of corresponding studies, we study the problem of MARL with state uncertainty in this work. We provide the first attempt to the theoretical and empirical analysis of this challenging problem. We first model the problem as a Markov Game with state perturbation adversaries (MG-SPA) by introducing a set of state perturbation adversaries into a Markov Game. We then introduce robust equilibrium (RE) as the solution concept of an MG-SPA. We conduct a fundamental analysis regarding MG-SPA such as giving conditions under which such a robust equilibrium exists. Then we propose a robust multi-agent Q-learning (RMAQ) algorithm to find such an equilibrium, with convergence guarantees. To handle high-dimensional state-action space, we design a robust multi-agent actor-critic (RMAAC) algorithm based on an analytical expression of the policy gradient derived in the paper. Our experiments show that the proposed RMAQ algorithm converges to the optimal value function; our RMAAC algorithm outperforms several MARL and robust MARL methods in multiple multi-agent environments when state uncertainty is present. The source code is public on \url{https://github.com/sihongho/robust_marl_with_state_uncertainty}.


MATNilm: Multi-appliance-task Non-intrusive Load Monitoring with Limited Labeled Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) identifies the status and power consumption of various household appliances by disaggregating the total power usage signal of an entire house. Efficient and accurate load monitoring facilitates user profile establishment, intelligent household energy management, and peak load shifting. This is beneficial for both the end-users and utilities by improving the overall efficiency of a power distribution network. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing an individual model for each appliance. Those approaches typically rely on a large amount of household-labeled data which is hard to collect. In this paper, we propose a multi-appliance-task framework with a training-efficient sample augmentation (SA) scheme that boosts the disaggregation performance with limited labeled data. For each appliance, we develop a shared-hierarchical split structure for its regression and classification tasks. In addition, we also propose a two-dimensional attention mechanism in order to capture spatio-temporal correlations among all appliances. With only one-day training data and limited appliance operation profiles, the proposed SA algorithm can achieve comparable test performance to the case of training with the full dataset. Finally, simulation results show that our proposed approach features a significantly improved performance over many baseline models. The relative errors can be reduced by more than 50% on average. The codes of this work are available at https://github.com/jxiong22/MATNilm


MTD-GPT: A Multi-Task Decision-Making GPT Model for Autonomous Driving at Unsignalized Intersections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous driving technology is poised to transform transportation systems. However, achieving safe and accurate multi-task decision-making in complex scenarios, such as unsignalized intersections, remains a challenge for autonomous vehicles. This paper presents a novel approach to this issue with the development of a Multi-Task Decision-Making Generative Pre-trained Transformer (MTD-GPT) model. Leveraging the inherent strengths of reinforcement learning (RL) and the sophisticated sequence modeling capabilities of the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), the MTD-GPT model is designed to simultaneously manage multiple driving tasks, such as left turns, straight-ahead driving, and right turns at unsignalized intersections. We initially train a single-task RL expert model, sample expert data in the environment, and subsequently utilize a mixed multi-task dataset for offline GPT training. This approach abstracts the multi-task decision-making problem in autonomous driving as a sequence modeling task. The MTD-GPT model is trained and evaluated across several decision-making tasks, demonstrating performance that is either superior or comparable to that of state-of-the-art single-task decision-making models.


Dynamic deep-reinforcement-learning algorithm in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning has been greatly improved in recent studies and an increased interest in real-world implementation has emerged in recent years. In many cases, due to the non-static disturbances, it becomes challenging for the agent to keep the performance. The disturbance results in the environment called Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. In common practice, Partially Observable Markov Decision Process is handled by introducing an additional estimator, or Recurrent Neural Network is utilized in the context of reinforcement learning. Both of the cases require to process sequential information on the trajectory. However, there are only a few studies investigating the effect of information to consider and the network structure to handle them. This study shows the benefit of action sequence inclusion in order to solve Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. Several structures and approaches are proposed to extend one of the latest deep reinforcement learning algorithms with LSTM networks. The developed algorithms showed enhanced robustness of controller performance against different types of external disturbances that are added to observation.


Reinforcement Learning Under Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Constraints with Time Windows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose an automata-theoretic approach for reinforcement learning (RL) under complex spatio-temporal constraints with time windows. The problem is formulated using a Markov decision process under a bounded temporal logic constraint. Different from existing RL methods that can eventually learn optimal policies satisfying such constraints, our proposed approach enforces a desired probability of constraint satisfaction throughout learning. This is achieved by translating the bounded temporal logic constraint into a total automaton and avoiding "unsafe" actions based on the available prior information regarding the transition probabilities, i.e., a pair of upper and lower bounds for each transition probability. We provide theoretical guarantees on the resulting probability of constraint satisfaction. We also provide numerical results in a scenario where a robot explores the environment to discover high-reward regions while fulfilling some periodic pick-up and delivery tasks that are encoded as temporal logic constraints.


Learning to Collaborate by Grouping: a Consensus-oriented Strategy for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent systems require effective coordination between groups and individuals to achieve common goals. However, current multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods primarily focus on improving individual policies and do not adequately address group-level policies, which leads to weak cooperation. To address this issue, we propose a novel Consensus-oriented Strategy (CoS) that emphasizes group and individual policies simultaneously. Specifically, CoS comprises two main components: (a) the vector quantized group consensus module, which extracts discrete latent embeddings that represent the stable and discriminative group consensus, and (b) the group consensus-oriented strategy, which integrates the group policy using a hypernet and the individual policies using the group consensus, thereby promoting coordination at both the group and individual levels. Through empirical experiments on cooperative navigation tasks with both discrete and continuous spaces, as well as Google research football, we demonstrate that CoS outperforms state-of-the-art MARL algorithms and achieves better collaboration, thus providing a promising solution for achieving effective coordination in multi-agent systems.


Robust vertebra identification using simultaneous node and edge predicting Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic vertebra localization and identification in CT scans is important for numerous clinical applications. Much progress has been made on this topic, but it mostly targets positional localization of vertebrae, ignoring their orientation. Additionally, most methods employ heuristics in their pipeline that can be sensitive in real clinical images which tend to contain abnormalities. We introduce a simple pipeline that employs a standard prediction with a U-Net, followed by a single graph neural network to associate and classify vertebrae with full orientation. To test our method, we introduce a new vertebra dataset that also contains pedicle detections that are associated with vertebra bodies, creating a more challenging landmark prediction, association and classification task. Our method is able to accurately associate the correct body and pedicle landmarks, ignore false positives and classify vertebrae in a simple, fully trainable pipeline avoiding application-specific heuristics. We show our method outperforms traditional approaches such as Hungarian Matching and Hidden Markov Models. We also show competitive performance on the standard VerSe challenge body identification task.


Approximate Model-Based Shielding for Safe Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great potential for solving complex tasks in a variety of domains. However, applying RL to safety-critical systems in the real-world is not easy as many algorithms are sample-inefficient and maximising the standard RL objective comes with no guarantees on worst-case performance. In this paper we propose approximate model-based shielding (AMBS), a principled look-ahead shielding algorithm for verifying the performance of learned RL policies w.r.t. a set of given safety constraints. Our algorithm differs from other shielding approaches in that it does not require prior knowledge of the safety-relevant dynamics of the system. We provide a strong theoretical justification for AMBS and demonstrate superior performance to other safety-aware approaches on a set of Atari games with state-dependent safety-labels.


CAR-DESPOT: Causally-Informed Online POMDP Planning for Robots in Confounded Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots operating in real-world environments must reason about possible outcomes of stochastic actions and make decisions based on partial observations of the true world state. A major challenge for making accurate and robust action predictions is the problem of confounding, which if left untreated can lead to prediction errors. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a widely-used framework to model these stochastic and partially-observable decision-making problems. However, due to a lack of explicit causal semantics, POMDP planning methods are prone to confounding bias and thus in the presence of unobserved confounders may produce underperforming policies. This paper presents a novel causally-informed extension of "anytime regularized determinized sparse partially observable tree" (AR-DESPOT), a modern anytime online POMDP planner, using causal modelling and inference to eliminate errors caused by unmeasured confounder variables. We further propose a method to learn offline the partial parameterisation of the causal model for planning, from ground truth model data. We evaluate our methods on a toy problem with an unobserved confounder and show that the learned causal model is highly accurate, while our planning method is more robust to confounding and produces overall higher performing policies than AR-DESPOT.