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 Markov Models


aUToLights: A Robust Multi-Camera Traffic Light Detection and Tracking System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Following four successful years in the SAE AutoDrive Challenge Series I, the University of Toronto is participating in the Series II competition to develop a Level 4 autonomous passenger vehicle capable of handling various urban driving scenarios by 2025. Accurate detection of traffic lights and correct identification of their states is essential for safe autonomous operation in cities. Herein, we describe our recently-redesigned traffic light perception system for autonomous vehicles like the University of Toronto's self-driving car, Artemis. Similar to most traffic light perception systems, we rely primarily on camera-based object detectors. We deploy the YOLOv5 detector for bounding box regression and traffic light classification across multiple cameras and fuse the observations. To improve robustness, we incorporate priors from high-definition semantic maps and perform state filtering using hidden Markov models. We demonstrate a multi-camera, real time-capable traffic light perception pipeline that handles complex situations including multiple visible intersections, traffic light variations, temporary occlusion, and flashing light states. To validate our system, we collected and annotated a varied dataset incorporating flashing states and a range of occlusion types. Our results show superior performance in challenging real-world scenarios compared to single-frame, single-camera object detection.


Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global analysis of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalizing flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.


Interpretable Sequence Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Categorical sequence clustering plays a crucial role in various fields, but the lack of interpretability in cluster assignments poses significant challenges. Sequences inherently lack explicit features, and existing sequence clustering algorithms heavily rely on complex representations, making it difficult to explain their results. To address this issue, we propose a method called Interpretable Sequence Clustering Tree (ISCT), which combines sequential patterns with a concise and interpretable tree structure. ISCT leverages k-1 patterns to generate k leaf nodes, corresponding to k clusters, which provides an intuitive explanation on how each cluster is formed. More precisely, ISCT first projects sequences into random subspaces and then utilizes the k-means algorithm to obtain high-quality initial cluster assignments. Subsequently, it constructs a pattern-based decision tree using a boosting-based construction strategy in which sequences are re-projected and re-clustered at each node before mining the top-1 discriminative splitting pattern. Experimental results on 14 real-world data sets demonstrate that our proposed method provides an interpretable tree structure while delivering fast and accurate cluster assignments.


AI driven B-cell Immunotherapy Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bruna Moreira da Silva is a PhD student at The University of Melbourne. Her research interests are in bioinformatics, immunoinformatics and machine learning to advance Global Health. David B. Ascher is the Director of Biotechnology at the University of Queensland and head of Computational Biology and Clinical Informatics at the Baker Institute and Systems and Computational Biology at Bio21 Institute. He is interested in developing and applying computational tools to assist leveraging clinical and omics data for drug discovery and personalised medicine. Nicholas Geard is an Associate Professor at the School of Computing and Information Systems at the University of Melbourne and Director of the Melbourne Data Analytics Platform. He is a computer scientist specialising in computational simulation applied to a range of problems in health and epidemiology. Douglas E. V. Pires is an Associate Professor in Digital Health at the School of Computing and Information Systems at the University of Melbourne and group leader at the Bio21 Institute. He is a computer scientist and bioinformatician specialising in machine learning and AI and the development of the next generation of tools to analyse omics data, and guide drug discovery and personalised medicine. ABSTRACT Antibodies, a prominent class of approved biologics, play a crucial role in detecting foreign antigens. The effectiveness of antigen neutralisation and elimination hinges upon the strength, sensitivity, and specificity of the paratope-epitope interaction, which demands resource-intensive experimental techniques for characterisation. In recent years, artificial intelligence and machine learning methods have made significant strides, revolutionising the prediction of protein structures and their complexes. The past decade has also witnessed the evolution of computational approaches aiming to support immunotherapy design. This review focuses on the progress of machine learning-based tools and their frameworks in the domain of B-cell immunotherapy design, encompassing linear and conformational epitope prediction, paratope prediction, and antibody design. We mapped the most commonly used data sources, evaluation metrics, and method availability and thoroughly assessed their significance and limitations, discussing the main challenges ahead. INTRODUCTION Therapeutic antibodies are a rapidly growing class of biopharmaceuticals with potentially exceptional antigen specificity and affinity. Their ability to detect and eliminate a wide array of foreign threats makes them suitable for a range of potential therapeutic and diagnostic applications. Antibody and antigen engineering have been greatly benefited by the evolution of research in computational biology, leading to innovative approaches in screening antibody targets, optimising their biochemical and physical properties, predicting and optimising binding affinity and understanding escape mutations [1].


Learning State-Space Models for Mapping Spatial Motion Patterns

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mapping the surrounding environment is essential for the successful operation of autonomous robots. While extensive research has focused on mapping geometric structures and static objects, the environment is also influenced by the movement of dynamic objects. Incorporating information about spatial motion patterns can allow mobile robots to navigate and operate successfully in populated areas. In this paper, we propose a deep state-space model that learns the map representations of spatial motion patterns and how they change over time at a certain place. To evaluate our methods, we use two different datasets: one generated dataset with specific motion patterns and another with real-world pedestrian data. We test the performance of our model by evaluating its learning ability, mapping quality, and application to downstream tasks. The results demonstrate that our model can effectively learn the corresponding motion pattern, and has the potential to be applied to robotic application tasks.


On Reward Structures of Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A Markov decision process can be parameterized by a transition kernel and a reward function. Both play essential roles in the study of reinforcement learning as evidenced by their presence in the Bellman equations. In our inquiry of various kinds of "costs" associated with reinforcement learning inspired by the demands in robotic applications, rewards are central to understanding the structure of a Markov decision process and reward-centric notions can elucidate important concepts in reinforcement learning. Specifically, we study the sample complexity of policy evaluation and develop a novel estimator with an instance-specific error bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\frac{\tau_s}{n}})$ for estimating a single state value. Under the online regret minimization setting, we refine the transition-based MDP constant, diameter, into a reward-based constant, maximum expected hitting cost, and with it, provide a theoretical explanation for how a well-known technique, potential-based reward shaping, could accelerate learning with expert knowledge. In an attempt to study safe reinforcement learning, we model hazardous environments with irrecoverability and proposed a quantitative notion of safe learning via reset efficiency. In this setting, we modify a classic algorithm to account for resets achieving promising preliminary numerical results. Lastly, for MDPs with multiple reward functions, we develop a planning algorithm that computationally efficiently finds Pareto-optimal stochastic policies.


Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Earnings Dynamics using a Hidden Markov Model: Evidence from the PSID

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a hidden Markov model designed to investigate the complex nature of earnings persistence. The proposed model assumes that the residuals of log-earnings consist of a persistent component and a transitory component, both following general Markov processes. Nonparametric identification is achieved through spectral decomposition of linear operators, and a modified stochastic EM algorithm is introduced for model estimation. Applying the framework to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) dataset, we find that the earnings process displays nonlinear persistence, conditional skewness, and conditional kurtosis. Additionally, the transitory component is found to possess non-Gaussian properties, resulting in a significantly asymmetric distributional impact when high-earning households face negative shocks or low-earning households encounter positive shocks. Our empirical findings also reveal the presence of ARCH effects in earnings at horizons ranging from 2 to 8 years, further highlighting the complex dynamics of earnings persistence.


Least Squares Maximum and Weighted Generalization-Memorization Machines

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we propose a new way of remembering by introducing a memory influence mechanism for the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). Without changing the equation constraints of the original LSSVM, this mechanism, allows an accurate partitioning of the training set without overfitting. The maximum memory impact model (MIMM) and the weighted impact memory model (WIMM) are then proposed. It is demonstrated that these models can be degraded to the LSSVM. Furthermore, we propose some different memory impact functions for the MIMM and WIMM. The experimental results show that that our MIMM and WIMM have better generalization performance compared to the LSSVM and significant advantage in time cost compared to other memory models.


Learning Vision-based Pursuit-Evasion Robot Policies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning strategic robot behavior -- like that required in pursuit-evasion interactions -- under real-world constraints is extremely challenging. It requires exploiting the dynamics of the interaction, and planning through both physical state and latent intent uncertainty. In this paper, we transform this intractable problem into a supervised learning problem, where a fully-observable robot policy generates supervision for a partially-observable one. We find that the quality of the supervision signal for the partially-observable pursuer policy depends on two key factors: the balance of diversity and optimality of the evader's behavior and the strength of the modeling assumptions in the fully-observable policy. We deploy our policy on a physical quadruped robot with an RGB-D camera on pursuit-evasion interactions in the wild. Despite all the challenges, the sensing constraints bring about creativity: the robot is pushed to gather information when uncertain, predict intent from noisy measurements, and anticipate in order to intercept. Project webpage: https://abajcsy.github.io/vision-based-pursuit/


Context-Aware Composition of Agent Policies by Markov Decision Process Entity Embeddings and Agent Ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computational agents support humans in many areas of life and are therefore found in heterogeneous contexts. This means they operate in rapidly changing environments and can be confronted with huge state and action spaces. In order to perform services and carry out activities in a goal-oriented manner, agents require prior knowledge and therefore have to develop and pursue context-dependent policies. However, prescribing policies in advance is limited and inflexible, especially in dynamically changing environments. Moreover, the context of an agent determines its choice of actions. Since the environments can be stochastic and complex in terms of the number of states and feasible actions, activities are usually modelled in a simplified way by Markov decision processes so that, e.g., agents with reinforcement learning are able to learn policies, that help to capture the context and act accordingly to optimally perform activities. However, training policies for all possible contexts using reinforcement learning is time-consuming. A requirement and challenge for agents is to learn strategies quickly and respond immediately in cross-context environments and applications, e.g., the Internet, service robotics, cyber-physical systems. In this work, we propose a novel simulation-based approach that enables a) the representation of heterogeneous contexts through knowledge graphs and entity embeddings and b) the context-aware composition of policies on demand by ensembles of agents running in parallel. The evaluation we conducted with the "Virtual Home" dataset indicates that agents with a need to switch seamlessly between different contexts, can request on-demand composed policies that lead to the successful completion of context-appropriate activities without having to learn these policies in lengthy training steps and episodes, in contrast to agents that use reinforcement learning.