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 Markov Models


Quasi-Arithmetic Mixtures, Divergence Minimization, and Bregman Information

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from complex distributions and estimating normalization constants often simulate samples from a sequence of intermediate distributions along an annealing path, which bridges between a tractable initial distribution and a target density of interest. Prior work has constructed annealing paths using quasi-arithmetic means, and interpreted the resulting intermediate densities as minimizing an expected divergence to the endpoints. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this 'centroid' property using Bregman divergences under a monotonic embedding of the density function, thereby associating common divergences such as Amari's and Renyi's ${\alpha}$-divergences, ${(\alpha,\beta)}$-divergences, and the Jensen-Shannon divergence with intermediate densities along an annealing path. Our analysis highlights the interplay between parametric families, quasi-arithmetic means, and divergence functions using the rho-tau Bregman divergence framework of Zhang 2004,2013.


Precise localization within the GI tract by combining classification of CNNs and time-series analysis of HMMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a method to efficiently classify the gastroenterologic section of images derived from Video Capsule Endoscopy (VCE) studies by exploring the combination of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for classification with the time-series analysis properties of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). It is demonstrated that successive time-series analysis identifies and corrects errors in the CNN output. Our approach achieves an accuracy of $98.04\%$ on the Rhode Island (RI) Gastroenterology dataset. This allows for precise localization within the gastrointestinal (GI) tract while requiring only approximately 1M parameters and thus, provides a method suitable for low power devices


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Cyber Operations: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid increase in the number of cyber-attacks in recent years raises the need for principled methods for defending networks against malicious actors. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising approach for mitigating these attacks. However, while DRL has shown much potential for cyber-defence, numerous challenges must be overcome before DRL can be applied to autonomous cyber-operations (ACO) at scale. Principled methods are required for environments that confront learners with very high-dimensional state spaces, large multi-discrete action spaces, and adversarial learning. Recent works have reported success in solving these problems individually. There have also been impressive engineering efforts towards solving all three for real-time strategy games. However, applying DRL to the full ACO problem remains an open challenge. Here, we survey the relevant DRL literature and conceptualize an idealised ACO-DRL agent. We provide: i.) A summary of the domain properties that define the ACO problem; ii.) A comprehensive evaluation of the extent to which domains used for benchmarking DRL approaches are comparable to ACO; iii.) An overview of state-of-the-art approaches for scaling DRL to domains that confront learners with the curse of dimensionality, and; iv.) A survey and critique of current methods for limiting the exploitability of agents within adversarial settings from the perspective of ACO. We conclude with open research questions that we hope will motivate future directions for researchers and practitioners working on ACO.


Prospective Side Information for Latent MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many interactive decision-making settings, there is latent and unobserved information that remains fixed. Consider, for example, a dialogue system, where complete information about a user, such as the user's preferences, is not given. In such an environment, the latent information remains fixed throughout each episode, since the identity of the user does not change during an interaction. This type of environment can be modeled as a Latent Markov Decision Process (LMDP), a special instance of Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). Previous work established exponential lower bounds in the number of latent contexts for the LMDP class. This puts forward a question: under which natural assumptions a near-optimal policy of an LMDP can be efficiently learned? In this work, we study the class of LMDPs with {\em prospective side information}, when an agent receives additional, weakly revealing, information on the latent context at the beginning of each episode. We show that, surprisingly, this problem is not captured by contemporary settings and algorithms designed for partially observed environments. We then establish that any sample efficient algorithm must suffer at least $\Omega(K^{2/3})$-regret, as opposed to standard $\Omega(\sqrt{K})$ lower bounds, and design an algorithm with a matching upper bound.


Theoretical Hardness and Tractability of POMDPs in RL with Partial Online State Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have been widely applied to capture many real-world applications. However, existing theoretical results have shown that learning in general POMDPs could be intractable, where the main challenge lies in the lack of latent state information. A key fundamental question here is how much online state information (OSI) is sufficient to achieve tractability. In this paper, we establish a lower bound that reveals a surprising hardness result: unless we have full OSI, we need an exponentially scaling sample complexity to obtain an $\epsilon$-optimal policy solution for POMDPs. Nonetheless, inspired by the key insights in our lower bound design, we find that there exist important tractable classes of POMDPs even with only partial OSI. In particular, for two novel classes of POMDPs with partial OSI, we provide new algorithms that are proved to be near-optimal by establishing new regret upper and lower bounds.


Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Planning for Discovering and Tracking Multiple Mobile Objects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the online planning problem for a team of agents to discover and track an unknown and time-varying number of moving objects from onboard sensor measurements with uncertain measurement-object origins. Since the onboard sensors have a limited field-of-view, the usual planning strategy based solely on either tracking detected objects or discovering unseen objects is inadequate. To address this, we formulate a new information-based multi-objective multi-agent control problem, cast as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). The resulting multi-agent planning problem is exponentially complex due to the unknown data association between objects and multi-sensor measurements; hence, computing an optimal control action is intractable. We prove that the proposed multi-objective value function is a monotone submodular set function, which admits low-cost suboptimal solutions via greedy search with a tight optimality bound. The resulting planning algorithm has a linear complexity in the number of objects and measurements across the sensors, and quadratic in the number of agents. We demonstrate the proposed solution via a series of numerical experiments with a real-world dataset.


Lemur: Harmonizing Natural Language and Code for Language Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce Lemur and Lemur-Chat, openly accessible language models optimized for both natural language and coding capabilities to serve as the backbone of versatile language agents. The evolution from language chat models to functional language agents demands that models not only master human interaction, reasoning, and planning but also ensure grounding in the relevant environments. This calls for a harmonious blend of language and coding capabilities in the models. Lemur and Lemur-Chat are proposed to address this necessity, demonstrating balanced proficiencies in both domains, unlike existing open-source models that tend to specialize in either. Through meticulous pre-training using a code-intensive corpus and instruction fine-tuning on text and code data, our models achieve state-of-the-art averaged performance across diverse text and coding benchmarks among open-source models. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate Lemur's superiority over existing open-source models and its proficiency across various agent tasks involving human communication, tool usage, and interaction under fully- and partially- observable environments. The harmonization between natural and programming languages enables Lemur-Chat to significantly narrow the gap with proprietary models on agent abilities, providing key insights into developing advanced open-source agents adept at reasoning, planning, and operating seamlessly across environments. https://github.com/OpenLemur/Lemur


Inverse Factorized Q-Learning for Cooperative Multi-agent Imitation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper concerns imitation learning (IL) (i.e, the problem of learning to mimic expert behaviors from demonstrations) in cooperative multi-agent systems. The learning problem under consideration poses several challenges, characterized by high-dimensional state and action spaces and intricate inter-agent dependencies. In a single-agent setting, IL has proven to be done efficiently through an inverse soft-Q learning process given expert demonstrations. However, extending this framework to a multi-agent context introduces the need to simultaneously learn both local value functions to capture local observations and individual actions, and a joint value function for exploiting centralized learning. In this work, we introduce a novel multi-agent IL algorithm designed to address these challenges. Our approach enables the centralized learning by leveraging mixing networks to aggregate decentralized Q functions. A main advantage of this approach is that the weights of the mixing networks can be trained using information derived from global states. We further establish conditions for the mixing networks under which the multi-agent objective function exhibits convexity within the Q function space. We present extensive experiments conducted on some challenging competitive and cooperative multi-agent game environments, including an advanced version of the Star-Craft multi-agent challenge (i.e., SMACv2), which demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm compared to existing state-of-the-art multi-agent IL algorithms.


Sample-Efficient Multi-Agent RL: An Optimization Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has achieved re markable empirical successes in solving complicated games involving sequential and strategic d ecision-making across multiple agents ( Vinyals et al., 2019; Brown and Sandholm, 2018; Silver et al., 2016). These achievements have catalyzed many research efforts focusing on developing efficient MARL algorithms in a theoretically principled manner. Specifically, a multi-agent system is ty pically modeled as a general-sum Markov Game (MG) ( Littman, 1994), with the primary aim of efficiently discerning a certain equ ilibrium notion among multiple agents from data collected via online interactions. Some popular equilibrium notions include Nash equilibrium (NE), correlated equ ilibrium (CE), and coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE). However, multi-agent general-sum Markov Games (MGs) bring forth various challenges. In particular, empirical application suffers from the large st ate space. Such a challenge necessitates the use of the function approximation as an effective way to ex tract the essential features of RL problems and avoid dealing directly with the large state spa ce. Yet, adopting function approximation in a general-sum MG brings about additional complexities no t found in single-agent RL or a zero-sum MG.


Sharing Information Between Machine Tools to Improve Surface Finish Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict surface-roughness measurements for a turning machining process. The hierarchical model is compared to multiple independent Bayesian linear regression models to showcase the benefits of partial pooling in a machining setting with respect to prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.