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 Markov Models


Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When we say interactive decision making, we are thinking of problems such as: Medical treatment: based on a patient's medical history and vital signs, we need to decide what treatment will lead to the most positive outcome. Controlling a robot: based on sensor signals, we need to decide what signals to send to a robot's actuators in order to navigate to a goal. For both problems, we (the learner/agent) are interacting with an unknown environment. In the robotics example, we do not necessarily a-priori know how the signals we send to our robot's actuators change its configuration, or what the landscape it's trying to navigate looks like. However, because we are able to actively control the agent, we can learn to model the environment on the fly as we make decisions and collect data, which will reduce uncertainty and allow us to make better decisions in the future. The crux of the interactive decision making problem is to make decisions in a way that balances (i) exploring the environment to reduce our uncertainty and (ii) maximizing our overall performance (e.g., reaching a goal state as fast as possible). Figure 1 depicts an idealized interactive decision making setting, which we will return to throughout this course.


Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.


Frauds Bargain Attack: Generating Adversarial Text Samples via Word Manipulation Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has revealed that natural language processing (NLP) models are vulnerable to adversarial examples. However, the current techniques for generating such examples rely on deterministic heuristic rules, which fail to produce optimal adversarial examples. In response, this study proposes a new method called the Fraud's Bargain Attack (FBA), which uses a randomization mechanism to expand the search space and produce high-quality adversarial examples with a higher probability of success. FBA uses the Metropolis-Hasting sampler, a type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, to improve the selection of adversarial examples from all candidates generated by a customized stochastic process called the Word Manipulation Process (WMP). The WMP method modifies individual words in a contextually-aware manner through insertion, removal, or substitution. Through extensive experiments, this study demonstrates that FBA outperforms other methods in terms of attack success rate, imperceptibility and sentence quality.


"Guess what I'm doing": Extending legibility to sequential decision tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interaction between humans and agents/robots can greatly benefit from each other's ability to reason about the others' intentions--inferring what the other is trying to do and what its objectives are. In the human-robot interaction (HRI) literature, several works have explored the communication of intentions using speech [1, 2], gaze [3, 4], and movements [5, 6]. In this work we address the problem of conveying intention through action, which is closely related to the aforementioned works that explore communication of intention through movement. In particular, we are interested in the notion of legibility, introduced by Dragan et al. [7], that measures to what extent a user is able to infer the goal of a robot by observing a snippet of the robot's movement. A legible movement is characterized not by its efficiency in reaching the goal, but by its distinctiveness, i.e., by how much it is able to disambiguate the actual goal of the movement from other potential goals. In the original work of Dragan et al. [7], legibility is expressed by the probability of the goal given the movement, i.e., L(movement) = P (Goal | Movement snippet). Legibility has been widely explored in human-robot interaction to improve a robots' expressiveness through movement [5]. More recently, several works have extended the notion of legibility to domains other than robotic motion. The focus on improving the transparency and explainability of machine systems has been one of the main drives for the application of legibility beyond robotic motion [8].


Anticipated Network Surveillance -- An extrapolated study to predict cyber-attacks using Machine Learning and Data Analytics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning and data mining techniques are utiized for enhancement of the security of any network. Researchers used machine learning for pattern detection, anomaly detection, dynamic policy setting, etc. The methods allow the program to learn from data and make decisions without human intervention, consuming a huge training period and computation power. This paper discusses a novel technique to predict an upcoming attack in a network based on several data parameters. The dataset is continuous in real-time implementation. The proposed model comprises dataset pre-processing, and training, followed by the testing phase. Based on the results of the testing phase, the best model is selected using which, event class which may lead to an attack is extracted. The event statistics are used for attack


CAVEN: An Embodied Conversational Agent for Efficient Audio-Visual Navigation in Noisy Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Audio-visual navigation of an agent towards locating an audio goal is a challenging task especially when the audio is sporadic or the environment is noisy. In this paper, we present CAVEN, a Conversation-based Audio-Visual Embodied Navigation framework in which the agent may interact with a human/oracle for solving the task of navigating to an audio goal. Specifically, CAVEN is modeled as a budget-aware partially observable semi-Markov decision process that implicitly learns the uncertainty in the audio-based navigation policy to decide when and how the agent may interact with the oracle. Our CAVEN agent can engage in fully-bidirectional natural language conversations by producing relevant questions and interpret free-form, potentially noisy responses from the oracle based on the audio-visual context. To enable such a capability, CAVEN is equipped with: (i) a trajectory forecasting network that is grounded in audio-visual cues to produce a potential trajectory to the estimated goal, and (ii) a natural language based question generation and reasoning network to pose an interactive question to the oracle or interpret the oracle's response to produce navigation instructions. To train the interactive modules, we present a large scale dataset: AVN-Instruct, based on the Landmark-RxR dataset. To substantiate the usefulness of conversations, we present experiments on the benchmark audio-goal task using the SoundSpaces simulator under various noisy settings. Our results reveal that our fully-conversational approach leads to nearly an order-of-magnitude improvement in success rate, especially in localizing new sound sources and against methods that only use uni-directional interaction.


Decentralized Monte Carlo Tree Search for Partially Observable Multi-agent Pathfinding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF) problem involves finding a set of conflict-free paths for a group of agents confined to a graph. In typical MAPF scenarios, the graph and the agents' starting and ending vertices are known beforehand, allowing the use of centralized planning algorithms. However, in this study, we focus on the decentralized MAPF setting, where the agents may observe the other agents only locally and are restricted in communications with each other. Specifically, we investigate the lifelong variant of MAPF, where new goals are continually assigned to the agents upon completion of previous ones. Drawing inspiration from the successful AlphaZero approach, we propose a decentralized multi-agent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method for MAPF tasks. Our approach utilizes the agent's observations to recreate the intrinsic Markov decision process, which is then used for planning with a tailored for multi-agent tasks version of neural MCTS. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art learnable MAPF solvers. The source code is available at https://github.com/AIRI-Institute/mats-lp.


Learning robust marking policies for adaptive mesh refinement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we revisit the marking decisions made in the standard adaptive finite element method (AFEM). Experience shows that a na\"{i}ve marking policy leads to inefficient use of computational resources for adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). Consequently, using AFEM in practice often involves ad-hoc or time-consuming offline parameter tuning to set appropriate parameters for the marking subroutine. To address these practical concerns, we recast AMR as a Markov decision process in which refinement parameters can be selected on-the-fly at run time, without the need for pre-tuning by expert users. In this new paradigm, the refinement parameters are also chosen adaptively via a marking policy that can be optimized using methods from reinforcement learning. We use the Poisson equation to demonstrate our techniques on $h$- and $hp$-refinement benchmark problems, and our experiments suggest that superior marking policies remain undiscovered for many classical AFEM applications. Furthermore, an unexpected observation from this work is that marking policies trained on one family of PDEs are sometimes robust enough to perform well on problems far outside the training family. For illustration, we show that a simple $hp$-refinement policy trained on 2D domains with only a single re-entrant corner can be deployed on far more complicated 2D domains, and even 3D domains, without significant performance loss. For reproduction and broader adoption, we accompany this work with an open-source implementation of our methods.


PDiT: Interleaving Perception and Decision-making Transformers for Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing better deep networks and better reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are both important for deep RL. This work studies the former. Specifically, the Perception and Decision-making Interleaving Transformer (PDiT) network is proposed, which cascades two Transformers in a very natural way: the perceiving one focuses on \emph{the environmental perception} by processing the observation at the patch level, whereas the deciding one pays attention to \emph{the decision-making} by conditioning on the history of the desired returns, the perceiver's outputs, and the actions. Such a network design is generally applicable to a lot of deep RL settings, e.g., both the online and offline RL algorithms under environments with either image observations, proprioception observations, or hybrid image-language observations. Extensive experiments show that PDiT can not only achieve superior performance than strong baselines in different settings but also extract explainable feature representations. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/maohangyu/PDiT}.


Large Scale Training of Graph Neural Networks for Optimal Markov-Chain Partitioning Using the Kemeny Constant

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional clustering algorithms often struggle to capture the complex relationships within graphs and generalise to arbitrary clustering criteria. The emergence of graph neural networks (GNNs) as a powerful framework for learning representations of graph data provides new approaches to solving the problem. Previous work has shown GNNs to be capable of proposing partitionings using a variety of criteria, however, these approaches have not yet been extended to work on Markov chains or kinetic networks. These arise frequently in the study of molecular systems and are of particular interest to the biochemical modelling community. In this work, we propose several GNN-based architectures to tackle the graph partitioning problem for Markov Chains described as kinetic networks. This approach aims to minimize how much a proposed partitioning changes the Kemeny constant. We propose using an encoder-decoder architecture and show how simple GraphSAGE-based GNNs with linear layers can outperform much larger and more expressive attention-based models in this context. As a proof of concept, we first demonstrate the method's ability to cluster randomly connected graphs. We also use a linear chain architecture corresponding to a 1D free energy profile as our kinetic network. Subsequently, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on a data set derived from molecular dynamics. We compare the performance of our method to other partitioning techniques such as PCCA+. We explore the importance of feature and hyperparameter selection and propose a general strategy for large-scale parallel training of GNNs for discovering optimal graph partitionings.