Markov Models
Synthetic Data Applications in Finance
Potluru, Vamsi K., Borrajo, Daniel, Coletta, Andrea, Dalmasso, Niccolรฒ, El-Laham, Yousef, Fons, Elizabeth, Ghassemi, Mohsen, Gopalakrishnan, Sriram, Gosai, Vikesh, Kreaฤiฤ, Eleonora, Mani, Ganapathy, Obitayo, Saheed, Paramanand, Deepak, Raman, Natraj, Solonin, Mikhail, Sood, Srijan, Vyetrenko, Svitlana, Zhu, Haibei, Veloso, Manuela, Balch, Tucker
Synthetic data has made tremendous strides in various commercial settings including finance, healthcare, and virtual reality. We present a broad overview of prototypical applications of synthetic data in the financial sector and in particular provide richer details for a few select ones. These cover a wide variety of data modalities including tabular, time-series, event-series, and unstructured arising from both markets and retail financial applications. Since finance is a highly regulated industry, synthetic data is a potential approach for dealing with issues related to privacy, fairness, and explainability. Various metrics are utilized in evaluating the quality and effectiveness of our approaches in these applications. We conclude with open directions in synthetic data in the context of the financial domain.
Hybrid Modeling Design Patterns
Rudolph, Maja, Kurz, Stefan, Rakitsch, Barbara
Design patterns provide a systematic way to convey solutions to recurring modeling challenges. This paper introduces design patterns for hybrid modeling, an approach that combines modeling based on first principles with data-driven modeling techniques. While both approaches have complementary advantages there are often multiple ways to combine them into a hybrid model, and the appropriate solution will depend on the problem at hand. In this paper, we provide four base patterns that can serve as blueprints for combining data-driven components with domain knowledge into a hybrid approach. In addition, we also present two composition patterns that govern the combination of the base patterns into more complex hybrid models. Each design pattern is illustrated by typical use cases from application areas such as climate modeling, engineering, and physics.
Principled Gradient-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Text Generation
Du, Li, Amini, Afra, Hennigen, Lucas Torroba, Yu, Xinyan Velocity, Eisner, Jason, Lee, Holden, Cotterell, Ryan
Recent papers have demonstrated the possibility of energy-based text generation by adapting gradient-based sampling algorithms, a paradigm of MCMC algorithms that promises fast convergence. However, as we show in this paper, previous attempts on this approach to text generation all fail to sample correctly from the target language model distributions. To address this limitation, we consider the problem of designing text samplers that are faithful, meaning that they have the target text distribution as its limiting distribution. We propose several faithful gradient-based sampling algorithms to sample from the target energy-based text distribution correctly, and study their theoretical properties. Through experiments on various forms of text generation, we demonstrate that faithful samplers are able to generate more fluent text while adhering to the control objectives better.
Directionality-Aware Mixture Model Parallel Sampling for Efficient Linear Parameter Varying Dynamical System Learning
Sun, Sunan, Gao, Haihui, Li, Tianyu, Figueroa, Nadia
The Linear Parameter Varying Dynamical System (LPV-DS) is an effective approach that learns stable, time-invariant motion policies using statistical modeling and semi-definite optimization to encode complex motions for reactive robot control. Despite its strengths, the LPV-DS learning approach faces challenges due to the curse of dimensionality, impacting model and computational efficiency. To address this, we introduce the Directionality-Aware Mixture Model (DAMM), a novel statistical model that applies the Riemannian metric on the n-sphere $\mathbb{S}^n$ to efficiently blend non-Euclidean directional data with $\mathbb{R}^m$ Euclidean states. Additionally, we develop a hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo technique that combines Gibbs Sampling with Split/Merge Proposals, allowing for parallel computation to drastically speed up inference. Our extensive empirical tests demonstrate that LPV-DS integrated with DAMM achieves higher reproduction accuracy, better model efficiency, and near real-time/online learning compared to standard estimation methods on various datasets. Lastly, we demonstrate its suitability for incrementally learning multi-behavior policies in real-world robot experiments.
Maximum diffusion reinforcement learning
Berrueta, Thomas A., Pinosky, Allison, Murphey, Todd D.
The assumption that data are independent and identically distributed underpins all machine learning. When data are collected sequentially from agent experiences this assumption does not generally hold, as in reinforcement learning. Here, we derive a method that overcomes these limitations by exploiting the statistical mechanics of ergodic processes, which we term maximum diffusion reinforcement learning. By decorrelating agent experiences, our approach provably enables single-shot learning in continuous deployments over the course of individual task attempts. Moreover, we prove our approach generalizes well-known maximum entropy techniques, and robustly exceeds state-of-the-art performance across popular benchmarks. Our results at the nexus of physics, learning, and control pave the way towards more transparent and reliable decision-making in reinforcement learning agents, such as locomoting robots and self-driving cars.
Gradient-based Planning with World Models
S, Jyothir V, Jalagam, Siddhartha, LeCun, Yann, Sobal, Vlad
The enduring challenge in the field of artificial intelligence has been the control of systems to achieve desired behaviours. While for systems governed by straightforward dynamics equations, methods like Linear Quadratic Regulation (LQR) have historically proven highly effective, most real-world tasks, which require a general problem-solver, demand world models with dynamics that cannot be easily described by simple equations. Consequently, these models must be learned from data using neural networks. Most model predictive control (MPC) algorithms designed for visual world models have traditionally explored gradient-free population-based optimization methods, such as Cross Entropy and Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) for planning. However, we present an exploration of a gradient-based alternative that fully leverages the differentiability of the world model. In our study, we conduct a comparative analysis between our method and other MPC-based alternatives, as well as policy-based algorithms. In a sample-efficient setting, our method achieves on par or superior performance compared to the alternative approaches in most tasks. Additionally, we introduce a hybrid model that combines policy networks and gradient-based MPC, which outperforms pure policy based methods thereby holding promise for Gradient-based planning with world models in complex real-world tasks.
Rethinking Model-based, Policy-based, and Value-based Reinforcement Learning via the Lens of Representation Complexity
Reinforcement Learning (RL) encompasses diverse paradigms, including model-based RL, policy-based RL, and value-based RL, each tailored to approximate the model, optimal policy, and optimal value function, respectively. This work investigates the potential hierarchy of representation complexity -- the complexity of functions to be represented -- among these RL paradigms. We first demonstrate that, for a broad class of Markov decision processes (MDPs), the model can be represented by constant-depth circuits with polynomial size or Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) with constant layers and polynomial hidden dimension. However, the representation of the optimal policy and optimal value proves to be $\mathsf{NP}$-complete and unattainable by constant-layer MLPs with polynomial size. This demonstrates a significant representation complexity gap between model-based RL and model-free RL, which includes policy-based RL and value-based RL. To further explore the representation complexity hierarchy between policy-based RL and value-based RL, we introduce another general class of MDPs where both the model and optimal policy can be represented by constant-depth circuits with polynomial size or constant-layer MLPs with polynomial size. In contrast, representing the optimal value is $\mathsf{P}$-complete and intractable via a constant-layer MLP with polynomial hidden dimension. This accentuates the intricate representation complexity associated with value-based RL compared to policy-based RL. In summary, we unveil a potential representation complexity hierarchy within RL -- representing the model emerges as the easiest task, followed by the optimal policy, while representing the optimal value function presents the most intricate challenge.
Generalizable Visual Reinforcement Learning with Segment Anything Model
Wang, Ziyu, Ze, Yanjie, Sun, Yifei, Yuan, Zhecheng, Xu, Huazhe
Learning policies that can generalize to unseen environments is a fundamental challenge in visual reinforcement learning (RL). While most current methods focus on acquiring robust visual representations through auxiliary supervision, pre-training, or data augmentation, the potential of modern vision foundation models remains underleveraged. In this work, we introduce Segment Anything Model for Generalizable visual RL (SAM-G), a novel framework that leverages the promptable segmentation ability of Segment Anything Model (SAM) to enhance the generalization capabilities of visual RL agents. We utilize image features from DINOv2 and SAM to find correspondence as point prompts to SAM, and then SAM produces high-quality masked images for agents directly. Evaluated across 8 DMControl tasks and 3 Adroit tasks, SAM-G significantly improves the visual generalization ability without altering the RL agents' architecture but merely their observations. Notably, SAM-G achieves 44% and 29% relative improvements on the challenging video hard setting on DMControl and Adroit respectively, compared to state-of-the-art methods. Video and code: https://yanjieze.com/SAM-G/
Heterogeneous-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Zhong, Yifan, Kuba, Jakub Grudzien, Feng, Xidong, Hu, Siyi, Ji, Jiaming, Yang, Yaodong
The necessity for cooperation among intelligent machines has popularised cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) in AI research. However, many research endeavours heavily rely on parameter sharing among agents, which confines them to only homogeneous-agent setting and leads to training instability and lack of convergence guarantees. To achieve effective cooperation in the general heterogeneous-agent setting, we propose Heterogeneous-Agent Reinforcement Learning (HARL) algorithms that resolve the aforementioned issues. Central to our findings are the multi-agent advantage decomposition lemma and the sequential update scheme . Based on these, we develop the provably correct Heterogeneous-Agent Trust Region Learning (HATRL), and derive HATRPO and HAPPO by tractable approximations. Furthermore, we discover a novel framework named Heterogeneous-Agent Mirror Learning (HAML), which strengthens theoretical guarantees for HATRPO and HAPPO and provides a general template for cooperative MARL algorithmic designs. We prove that all algorithms derived from HAML inherently enjoy monotonic improvement of joint return and convergence to Nash Equilibrium. As its natural outcome, HAML validates more novel algorithms in addition to HATRPO and HAPPO, including HAA2C, HADDPG, and HATD3, which generally outperform their existing MAcounterparts. We comprehensively test HARL algorithms on six challenging benchmarks and demonstrate their superior effectiveness and stability for coordinating heterogeneous agents compared to strong baselines such as MAPPO and QMIX.
Occupancy Information Ratio: Infinite-Horizon, Information-Directed, Parameterized Policy Search
Suttle, Wesley A., Koppel, Alec, Liu, Ji
In this work, we propose an information-directed objective for infinite-horizon reinforcement learning (RL), called the occupancy information ratio (OIR), inspired by the information ratio objectives used in previous information-directed sampling schemes for multi-armed bandits and Markov decision processes as well as recent advances in general utility RL. The OIR, comprised of a ratio between the average cost of a policy and the entropy of its induced state occupancy measure, enjoys rich underlying structure and presents an objective to which scalable, model-free policy search methods naturally apply. Specifically, we show by leveraging connections between quasiconcave optimization and the linear programming theory for Markov decision processes that the OIR problem can be transformed and solved via concave programming methods when the underlying model is known. Since model knowledge is typically lacking in practice, we lay the foundations for model-free OIR policy search methods by establishing a corresponding policy gradient theorem. Building on this result, we subsequently derive REINFORCE- and actor-critic-style algorithms for solving the OIR problem in policy parameter space. Crucially, exploiting the powerful hidden quasiconcavity property implied by the concave programming transformation of the OIR problem, we establish finite-time convergence of the REINFORCE-style scheme to global optimality and asymptotic convergence of the actor-critic-style scheme to (near) global optimality under suitable conditions. Finally, we experimentally illustrate the utility of OIR-based methods over vanilla methods in sparse-reward settings, supporting the OIR as an alternative to existing RL objectives.