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 Markov Models


Act as You Learn: Adaptive Decision-Making in Non-Stationary Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A fundamental (and largely open) challenge in sequential decision-making is dealing with non-stationary environments, where exogenous environmental conditions change over time. Such problems are traditionally modeled as non-stationary Markov decision processes (NSMDP). However, existing approaches for decision-making in NSMDPs have two major shortcomings: first, they assume that the updated environmental dynamics at the current time are known (although future dynamics can change); and second, planning is largely pessimistic, i.e., the agent acts ``safely'' to account for the non-stationary evolution of the environment. We argue that both these assumptions are invalid in practice -- updated environmental conditions are rarely known, and as the agent interacts with the environment, it can learn about the updated dynamics and avoid being pessimistic, at least in states whose dynamics it is confident about. We present a heuristic search algorithm called \textit{Adaptive Monte Carlo Tree Search (ADA-MCTS)} that addresses these challenges. We show that the agent can learn the updated dynamics of the environment over time and then act as it learns, i.e., if the agent is in a region of the state space about which it has updated knowledge, it can avoid being pessimistic. To quantify ``updated knowledge,'' we disintegrate the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in the agent's updated belief and show how the agent can use these estimates for decision-making. We compare the proposed approach with the multiple state-of-the-art approaches in decision-making across multiple well-established open-source problems and empirically show that our approach is faster and highly adaptive without sacrificing safety.


Limits of Actor-Critic Algorithms for Decision Tree Policies Learning in IBMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interpretability of AI models allows for user safety checks to build trust in such AIs. In particular, Decision Trees (DTs) provide a global look at the learned model and transparently reveal which features of the input are critical for making a decision. However, interpretability is hindered if the DT is too large. To learn compact trees, a recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework has been proposed to explore the space of DTs using deep RL. This framework augments a decision problem (e.g. a supervised classification task) with additional actions that gather information about the features of an otherwise hidden input. By appropriately penalizing these actions, the agent learns to optimally trade-off size and performance of DTs. In practice, a reactive policy for a partially observable Markov decision process (MDP) needs to be learned, which is still an open problem. We show in this paper that deep RL can fail even on simple toy tasks of this class. However, when the underlying decision problem is a supervised classification task, we show that finding the optimal tree can be cast as a fully observable Markov decision problem and be solved efficiently, giving rise to a new family of algorithms for learning DTs that go beyond the classical greedy maximization ones.


Constraint-Generation Policy Optimization (CGPO): Nonlinear Programming for Policy Optimization in Mixed Discrete-Continuous MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose Constraint-Generation Policy Optimization (CGPO) for optimizing policy parameters within compact and interpretable policy classes for mixed discrete-continuous Markov Decision Processes (DC-MDPs). CGPO is not only able to provide bounded policy error guarantees over an infinite range of initial states for many DC-MDPs with expressive nonlinear dynamics, but it can also provably derive optimal policies in cases where it terminates with zero error. Furthermore, CGPO can generate worst-case state trajectories to diagnose policy deficiencies and provide counterfactual explanations of optimal actions. To achieve such results, CGPO proposes a bi-level mixed-integer nonlinear optimization framework for optimizing policies within defined expressivity classes (i.e. piecewise (non)-linear) and reduces it to an optimal constraint generation methodology that adversarially generates worst-case state trajectories. Furthermore, leveraging modern nonlinear optimizers, CGPO can obtain solutions with bounded optimality gap guarantees. We handle stochastic transitions through explicit marginalization (where applicable) or chance-constraints, providing high-probability policy performance guarantees. We also present a road-map for understanding the computational complexities associated with different expressivity classes of policy, reward, and transition dynamics. We experimentally demonstrate the applicability of CGPO in diverse domains, including inventory control, management of a system of water reservoirs, and physics control. In summary, we provide a solution for deriving structured, compact, and explainable policies with bounded performance guarantees, enabling worst-case scenario generation and counterfactual policy diagnostics.


Projected Belief Networks With Discriminative Alignment for Acoustic Event Classification: Rivaling State of the Art CNNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The projected belief network (PBN) is a generative stochastic network with tractable likelihood function based on a feed-forward neural network (FFNN). The generative function operates by "backing up" through the FFNN. The PBN is two networks in one, a FFNN that operates in the forward direction, and a generative network that operates in the backward direction. Both networks co-exist based on the same parameter set, have their own cost functions, and can be separately or jointly trained. The PBN therefore has the potential to possess the best qualities of both discriminative and generative classifiers. To realize this potential, a separate PBN is trained on each class, maximizing the generative likelihood function for the given class, while minimizing the discriminative cost for the FFNN against "all other classes". This technique, called discriminative alignment (PBN-DA), aligns the contours of the likelihood function to the decision boundaries and attains vastly improved classification performance, rivaling that of state of the art discriminative networks. The method may be further improved using a hidden Markov model (HMM) as a component of the PBN, called PBN-DA-HMM. This paper provides a comprehensive treatment of PBN, PBN-DA, and PBN-DA-HMM. In addition, the results of two new classification experiments are provided. The first experiment uses air-acoustic events, and the second uses underwater acoustic data consisting of marine mammal calls. In both experiments, PBN-DA-HMM attains comparable or better performance as a state of the art CNN, and attain a factor of two error reduction when combined with the CNN.


Learning Explainable and Better Performing Representations of POMDP Strategies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Strategies for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) typically require memory. One way to represent this memory is via automata. We present a method to learn an automaton representation of a strategy using a modification of the L*-algorithm. Compared to the tabular representation of a strategy, the resulting automaton is dramatically smaller and thus also more explainable. Moreover, in the learning process, our heuristics may even improve the strategy's performance. In contrast to approaches that synthesize an automaton directly from the POMDP thereby solving it, our approach is incomparably more scalable.


Provably Scalable Black-Box Variational Inference with Structured Variational Families

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Variational families with full-rank covariance approximations are known not to work well in black-box variational inference (BBVI), both empirically and theoretically. In fact, recent computational complexity results for BBVI have established that full-rank variational families scale poorly with the dimensionality of the problem compared to e.g. mean field families. This is particularly critical to hierarchical Bayesian models with local variables; their dimensionality increases with the size of the datasets. Consequently, one gets an iteration complexity with an explicit $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ dependence on the dataset size $N$. In this paper, we explore a theoretical middle ground between mean-field variational families and full-rank families: structured variational families. We rigorously prove that certain scale matrix structures can achieve a better iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(N)$, implying better scaling with respect to $N$. We empirically verify our theoretical results on large-scale hierarchical models.


T2MAC: Targeted and Trusted Multi-Agent Communication through Selective Engagement and Evidence-Driven Integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Communication stands as a potent mechanism to harmonize the behaviors of multiple agents. However, existing works primarily concentrate on broadcast communication, which not only lacks practicality, but also leads to information redundancy. This surplus, one-fits-all information could adversely impact the communication efficiency. Furthermore, existing works often resort to basic mechanisms to integrate observed and received information, impairing the learning process. To tackle these difficulties, we propose Targeted and Trusted Multi-Agent Communication (T2MAC), a straightforward yet effective method that enables agents to learn selective engagement and evidence-driven integration. With T2MAC, agents have the capability to craft individualized messages, pinpoint ideal communication windows, and engage with reliable partners, thereby refining communication efficiency. Following the reception of messages, the agents integrate information observed and received from different sources at an evidence level. This process enables agents to collectively use evidence garnered from multiple perspectives, fostering trusted and cooperative behaviors. We evaluate our method on a diverse set of cooperative multi-agent tasks, with varying difficulties, involving different scales and ranging from Hallway, MPE to SMAC. The experiments indicate that the proposed model not only surpasses the state-of-the-art methods in terms of cooperative performance and communication efficiency, but also exhibits impressive generalization.


Advancements in eHealth Data Analytics through Natural Language Processing and Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The healthcare environment is commonly referred to as "information-rich" but also "knowledge poor". Healthcare systems collect huge amounts of data from various sources: lab reports, medical letters, logs of medical tools or programs, medical prescriptions, etc. These massive sets of data can provide great knowledge and information that can improve the medical services, and overall the healthcare domain, such as disease prediction by analyzing the patient's symptoms or disease prevention, by facilitating the discovery of behavioral factors for diseases. Unfortunately, only a relatively small volume of the textual eHealth data is processed and interpreted, an important factor being the difficulty in efficiently performing Big Data operations. In the medical field, detecting domain-specific multi-word terms is a crucial task as they can define an entire concept with a few words. A term can be defined as a linguistic structure or a concept, and it is composed of one or more words with a specific meaning to a domain. All the terms of a domain create its terminology. This chapter offers a critical study of the current, most performant solutions for analyzing unstructured (image and textual) eHealth data. This study also provides a comparison of the current Natural Language Processing and Deep Learning techniques in the eHealth context. Finally, we examine and discuss some of the current issues, and we define a set of research directions in this area.


A survey on recent advances in named entity recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Named Entity Recognition (NER) is a field of computer science and natural language processing (NLP) that deals with the identification and classification of named items in unstructured text. The items in question belong to predefined semantic types such as persons, locations, and organizations [Grishman and Sundheim, 1996a]. NER is today a key component in areas including machine translation [Babych and Hartley, 2003], question-answering [Mollá et al., 2006], and information retrieval [Guo et al., 2009]. A number of NER systems have been developed, particularly for English, but also for other languages, including Chinese [Liu et al., 2022] and French [Mikheev et al., 1999]. Early NER systems used algorithms based on handcrafted rules, lexicons, and spelling features [Rau, 1991]. Systems were subsequently developed that used algorithms based on machine learning [Nadeau and Sekine, 2007], neural networks [Collobert, 2011], and transformers [Labusch et al., 2019a].


Optimisation in Neurosymbolic Learning Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neurosymbolic AI aims to integrate deep learning with symbolic AI. This integration has many promises, such as decreasing the amount of data required to train a neural network, improving the explainability and interpretability of answers given by models and verifying the correctness of trained systems. We study neurosymbolic learning, where we have both data and background knowledge expressed using symbolic languages. How do we connect the symbolic and neural components to communicate this knowledge? One option is fuzzy reasoning, which studies degrees of truth. For example, being tall is not a binary concept. Instead, probabilistic reasoning studies the probability that something is true or will happen. Our first research question studies how different forms of fuzzy reasoning combine with learning. We find surprising results like a connection to the Raven paradox stating we confirm "ravens are black" when we observe a green apple. In this study, we did not use the background knowledge when we deployed our models after training. In our second research question, we studied how to use background knowledge in deployed models. We developed a new neural network layer based on fuzzy reasoning. Probabilistic reasoning is a natural fit for neural networks, which we usually train to be probabilistic. However, they are expensive to compute and do not scale well to large tasks. In our third research question, we study how to connect probabilistic reasoning with neural networks by sampling to estimate averages, while in the final research question, we study scaling probabilistic neurosymbolic learning to much larger problems than before. Our insight is to train a neural network with synthetic data to predict the result of probabilistic reasoning.