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 Markov Models


"What's my model inside of?": Exploring the role of environments for grounded natural language understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In contrast to classical cognitive science which studied brains in isolation, ecological approaches focused on the role of the body and environment in shaping cognition. Similarly, in this thesis we adopt an ecological approach to grounded natural language understanding (NLU) research. Grounded language understanding studies language understanding systems situated in the context of events, actions and precepts in naturalistic/simulated virtual environments. Where classic research tends to focus on designing new models and optimization methods while treating environments as given, we explore the potential of environment design for improving data collection and model development. We developed novel training and annotation approaches for procedural text understanding based on text-based game environments. We also drew upon embodied cognitive linguistics literature to propose a roadmap for grounded NLP research, and to inform the development of a new benchmark for measuring the progress of large language models on challenging commonsense reasoning tasks. We leveraged the richer supervision provided by text-based game environments to develop Breakpoint Transformers, a novel approach to modeling intermediate semantic information in long narrative or procedural texts. Finally, we integrated theories on the role of environments in collective human intelligence to propose a design for AI-augmented "social thinking environments" for knowledge workers like scientists.


Vision-Language Foundation Models as Effective Robot Imitators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent progress in vision language foundation models has shown their ability to understand multimodal data and resolve complicated vision language tasks, including robotics manipulation. We seek a straightforward way of making use of existing vision-language models (VLMs) with simple fine-tuning on robotics data. To this end, we derive a simple and novel vision-language manipulation framework, dubbed RoboFlamingo, built upon the open-source VLMs, OpenFlamingo. Unlike prior works, RoboFlamingo utilizes pre-trained VLMs for single-step vision-language comprehension, models sequential history information with an explicit policy head, and is slightly fine-tuned by imitation learning only on language-conditioned manipulation datasets. Such a decomposition provides RoboFlamingo the flexibility for open-loop control and deployment on low-performance platforms. By exceeding the state-of-the-art performance with a large margin on the tested benchmark, we show RoboFlamingo can be an effective and competitive alternative to adapt VLMs to robot control. Our extensive experimental results also reveal several interesting conclusions regarding the behavior of different pre-trained VLMs on manipulation tasks. We believe RoboFlamingo has the potential to be a cost-effective and easy-to-use solution for robotics manipulation, empowering everyone with the ability to fine-tune their own robotics policy.


Agent-Specific Effects: A Causal Effect Propagation Analysis in Multi-Agent MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Establishing causal relationships between actions and outcomes is fundamental for accountable multi-agent decision-making. However, interpreting and quantifying agents' contributions to such relationships pose significant challenges. These challenges are particularly prominent in the context of multi-agent sequential decision-making, where the causal effect of an agent's action on the outcome depends on how other agents respond to that action. In this paper, our objective is to present a systematic approach for attributing the causal effects of agents' actions to the influence they exert on other agents. Focusing on multi-agent Markov decision processes, we introduce agent-specific effects (ASE), a novel causal quantity that measures the effect of an agent's action on the outcome that propagates through other agents. We then turn to the counterfactual counterpart of ASE (cf-ASE), provide a sufficient set of conditions for identifying cf-ASE, and propose a practical sampling-based algorithm for estimating it. Finally, we experimentally evaluate the utility of cf-ASE through a simulation-based testbed, which includes a sepsis management environment.


A Data Generation Perspective to the Mechanism of In-Context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-Context Learning (ICL) empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the capacity to learn in context, achieving downstream generalization without gradient updates but with a few in-context examples. Despite the encouraging empirical success, the underlying mechanism of ICL remains unclear, and existing research offers various viewpoints of understanding. These studies propose intuition-driven and ad-hoc technical solutions for interpreting ICL, illustrating an ambiguous road map. In this paper, we leverage a data generation perspective to reinterpret recent efforts and demonstrate the potential broader usage of popular technical solutions, approaching a systematic angle. For a conceptual definition, we rigorously adopt the terms of skill learning and skill recognition. The difference between them is skill learning can learn new data generation functions from in-context data. We also provide a comprehensive study on the merits and weaknesses of different solutions, and highlight the uniformity among them given the perspective of data generation, establishing a technical foundation for future research to incorporate the strengths of different lines of research.


Predictable Reinforcement Learning Dynamics through Entropy Rate Minimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), agents have no incentive to exhibit predictable behaviors, and are often pushed (through e.g. policy entropy regularization) to randomize their actions in favor of exploration. From a human perspective, this makes RL agents hard to interpret and predict, and from a safety perspective, even harder to formally verify. We propose a novel method to induce predictable behavior in RL agents, referred to as Predictability-Aware RL (PA-RL), which employs the state sequence entropy rate as a predictability measure. We show how the entropy rate can be formulated as an average reward objective, and since its entropy reward function is policy-dependent, we introduce an action-dependent surrogate entropy enabling the use of PG methods. We prove that deterministic policies minimizing the average surrogate reward exist and also minimize the actual entropy rate, and show how, given a learned dynamical model, we are able to approximate the value function associated to the true entropy rate. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in RL tasks inspired by human-robot use-cases, and show how it produces agents with more predictable behavior while achieving near-optimal rewards.


Revisiting the Markov Property for Machine Translation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we re-examine the Markov property in the context of neural machine translation. We design a Markov Autoregressive Transformer~(MAT) and undertake a comprehensive assessment of its performance across four WMT benchmarks. Our findings indicate that MAT with an order larger than 4 can generate translations with quality on par with that of conventional autoregressive transformers. In addition, counter-intuitively, we also find that the advantages of utilizing a higher-order MAT do not specifically contribute to the translation of longer sentences.


Developing A Multi-Agent and Self-Adaptive Framework with Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Portfolio Risk Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep or reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have been adapted as reactive agents to quickly learn and respond with new investment strategies for portfolio management under the highly turbulent financial market environments in recent years. In many cases, due to the very complex correlations among various financial sectors, and the fluctuating trends in different financial markets, a deep or reinforcement learning based agent can be biased in maximising the total returns of the newly formulated investment portfolio while neglecting its potential risks under the turmoil of various market conditions in the global or regional sectors. Accordingly, a multi-agent and self-adaptive framework namely the MASA is proposed in which a sophisticated multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) approach is adopted through two cooperating and reactive agents to carefully and dynamically balance the trade-off between the overall portfolio returns and their potential risks. Besides, a very flexible and proactive agent as the market observer is integrated into the MASA framework to provide some additional information on the estimated market trends as valuable feedbacks for multi-agent RL approach to quickly adapt to the ever-changing market conditions. The obtained empirical results clearly reveal the potential strengths of our proposed MASA framework based on the multi-agent RL approach against many well-known RL-based approaches on the challenging data sets of the CSI 300, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes over the past 10 years. More importantly, our proposed MASA framework shed lights on many possible directions for future investigation.


Optimized Task Assignment and Predictive Maintenance for Industrial Machines using Markov Decision Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The importance of predictive maintenance is well-recognized in the industrial sector for several reasons, e.g., it allows for the reduction in machine downtime, it helps in reducing the production cost, and it is useful in enhancing the life of machines. Consequently, predictive maintenance is one of the key areas of research among the scientific community. Initially, the predictive maintenance used to be time-based but later on (with the advances in sensing technology), condition-based maintenance (CBM) gained more popularity. Maintenance of machine tools involve two key stages, i.e., diagnosis and prognosis. Prognosis deals with the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of the machine whereas diagnosis is concerned with detection and identification of various faults in the machine. Major approaches for prognosis include data-based approaches, knowledge-based approaches, and physics (model) based approaches. Diagnosis on the other hand is based on centralized or distributed approaches [1]. Key challenges in predictive maintenance include 1) Dealing with the noisy sensor data, 2) Uncertainty in the operating conditions, and 3) Diversity of tasks assigned to the machine. A comparison between time-based and condition-based maintenance strategies has been presented in [2].


Anytime-Competitive Reinforcement Learning with Policy Prior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the problem of Anytime-Competitive Markov Decision Process (A-CMDP). Existing works on Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) aim to optimize the expected reward while constraining the expected cost over random dynamics, but the cost in a specific episode can still be unsatisfactorily high. In contrast, the goal of A-CMDP is to optimize the expected reward while guaranteeing a bounded cost in each round of any episode against a policy prior. We propose a new algorithm, called Anytime-Competitive Reinforcement Learning (ACRL), which provably guarantees the anytime cost constraints. The regret analysis shows the policy asymptotically matches the optimal reward achievable under the anytime competitive constraints. Experiments on the application of carbon-intelligent computing verify the reward performance and cost constraint guarantee of ACRL.


Regret Analysis of Policy Gradient Algorithm for Infinite Horizon Average Reward Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider an infinite horizon average reward Markov Decision Process (MDP). Distinguishing itself from existing works within this context, our approach harnesses the power of the general policy gradient-based algorithm, liberating it from the constraints of assuming a linear MDP structure. We propose a policy gradient-based algorithm and show its global convergence property. We then prove that the proposed algorithm has $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}({T}^{3/4})$ regret. Remarkably, this paper marks a pioneering effort by presenting the first exploration into regret-bound computation for the general parameterized policy gradient algorithm in the context of average reward scenarios.