We study the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem with a linear mixture transition kernel, where an agent repeatedly interacts with a stochastic environment and seeks to reach certain goal state while minimizing the cumulative cost. Existing works often assume a strictly positive lower bound of the cost function or an upper bound of the expected length for the optimal policy. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to eliminate these restrictive assumptions. Our algorithm is based on extended value iteration with a fine-grained variance-aware confidence set, where the variance is estimated recursively from high-order moments. Our algorithm achieves an $\tilde{\mathcal O}(dB_*\sqrt{K})$ regret bound, where $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping in the linear transition kernel, $B_*$ is the upper bound of the total cumulative cost for the optimal policy, and $K$ is the number of episodes. Our regret upper bound matches the $\Omega(dB_*\sqrt{K})$ lower bound of linear mixture SSPs in Min et al. (2022), which suggests that our algorithm is nearly minimax optimal.

Diffusion models have achieved huge empirical success in data generation tasks. Recently, some efforts have been made to adapt the framework of diffusion models to discrete state space, providing a more natural approach for modeling intrinsically discrete data, such as language and graphs. This is achieved by formulating both the forward noising process and the corresponding reversed process as Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs). In this paper, we investigate the theoretical properties of the discrete diffusion model. Specifically, we introduce an algorithm leveraging the uniformization of continuous Markov chains, implementing transitions on random time points. Under reasonable assumptions on the learning of the discrete score function, we derive Total Variation distance and KL divergence guarantees for sampling from any distribution on a hypercube. Our results align with state-of-the-art achievements for diffusion models in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and further underscore the advantages of discrete diffusion models in comparison to the $\mathbb{R}^d$ setting.

We consider the problem of finding an informative path through a graph, given initial and terminal nodes and a given maximum path length. We assume that a linear noise corrupted measurement is taken at each node of an underlying unknown vector that we wish to estimate. The informativeness is measured by the reduction in uncertainty in our estimate, evaluated using several metrics. We present a convex relaxation for this informative path planning problem, which we can readily solve to obtain a bound on the possible performance. We develop an approximate sequential method where the path is constructed segment by segment through dynamic programming. This involves solving an orienteering problem, with the node reward acting as a surrogate for informativeness, taking the first step, and then repeating the process. The method scales to very large problem instances and achieves performance not too far from the bound produced by the convex relaxation. We also demonstrate our method's ability to handle adaptive objectives, multimodal sensing, and multi-agent variations of the informative path planning problem.

This study examines how artificial intelligence (AI), especially Reinforcement Learning (RL), can be used in farming to boost crop yields, fine-tune nitrogen use and watering, and reduce nitrate runoff and greenhouse gases, focusing on Nitrous Oxide (N$_2$O) emissions from soil. Facing climate change and limited agricultural knowledge, we use Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with a crop simulator to model AI agents' interactions with farming environments. We apply deep Q-learning with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based Q networks for training agents on optimal actions. Also, we develop Machine Learning (ML) models to predict N$_2$O emissions, integrating these predictions into the simulator. Our research tackles uncertainties in N$_2$O emission estimates with a probabilistic ML approach and climate variability through a stochastic weather model, offering a range of emission outcomes to improve forecast reliability and decision-making. By incorporating climate change effects, we enhance agents' climate adaptability, aiming for resilient agricultural practices. Results show these agents can align crop productivity with environmental concerns by penalizing N$_2$O emissions, adapting effectively to climate shifts like warmer temperatures and less rain. This strategy improves farm management under climate change, highlighting AI's role in sustainable agriculture.

We consider the problem of designing a control policy for an infinite-horizon discounted cost Markov decision process $\mathcal{M}$ when we only have access to an approximate model $\hat{\mathcal{M}}$. How well does an optimal policy $\hat{\pi}^{\star}$ of the approximate model perform when used in the original model $\mathcal{M}$? We answer this question by bounding a weighted norm of the difference between the value function of $\hat{\pi}^\star $ when used in $\mathcal{M}$ and the optimal value function of $\mathcal{M}$. We then extend our results and obtain potentially tighter upper bounds by considering affine transformations of the per-step cost. We further provide upper bounds that explicitly depend on the weighted distance between cost functions and weighted distance between transition kernels of the original and approximate models. We present examples to illustrate our results.

This paper reports our work on building up a Cantonese Speech-to-Text (STT) system with a syllable based acoustic model. This is a part of an effort in building a STT system to aid dyslexic students who have cognitive deficiency in writing skills but have no problem expressing their ideas through speech. For Cantonese speech recognition, the basic unit of acoustic models can either be the conventional Initial-Final (IF) syllables, or the Onset-Nucleus-Coda (ONC) syllables where finals are further split into nucleus and coda to reflect the intra-syllable variations in Cantonese. By using the Kaldi toolkit, our system is trained using the stochastic gradient descent optimization model with the aid of GPUs for the hybrid Deep Neural Network and Hidden Markov Model (DNN-HMM) with and without I-vector based speaker adaptive training technique. The input features of the same Gaussian Mixture Model with speaker adaptive training (GMM-SAT) to DNN are used in all cases. Experiments show that the ONC-based syllable acoustic modeling with I-vector based DNN-HMM achieves the best performance with the word error rate (WER) of 9.66% and the real time factor (RTF) of 1.38812.

This research project presents the implementation of a Deep Q-Learning Network (DQN) for a self-driving car on a 2-dimensional (2D) custom track, with the objective of enhancing the DQN network's performance. It encompasses the development of a custom driving environment using Pygame on a track surrounding the University of Memphis map, as well as the design and implementation of the DQN model. The algorithm utilizes data from 7 sensors installed in the car, which measure the distance between the car and the track. These sensors are positioned in front of the vehicle, spaced 20 degrees apart, enabling them to sense a wide area ahead. We successfully implemented the DQN and also a modified version of the DQN with a priority-based action selection mechanism, which we refer to as modified DQN. The model was trained over 1000 episodes, and the average reward received by the agent was found to be around 40, which is approximately 60% higher than the original DQN and around 50% higher than the vanilla neural network.

Identifying how much a model ${\widehat{p}}_{\theta}(Y|X)$ knows about the stochastic real-world process $p(Y|X)$ it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate $p(Y|X)$ and also estimate the remaining gaps between ${\widehat{p}}_{\theta}(Y|X)$ and $p(Y|X)$: train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for $p(Y|X)$ and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Our work addresses a fundamental problem in the context of counterfactual inference for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Given an MDP path $\tau$, this kind of inference allows us to derive counterfactual paths $\tau'$ describing what-if versions of $\tau$ obtained under different action sequences than those observed in $\tau$. However, as the counterfactual states and actions deviate from the observed ones over time, the observation $\tau$ may no longer influence the counterfactual world, meaning that the analysis is no longer tailored to the individual observation, resulting in interventional outcomes rather than counterfactual ones. Even though this issue specifically affects the popular Gumbel-max structural causal model used for MDP counterfactuals, it has remained overlooked until now. In this work, we introduce a formal characterisation of influence based on comparing counterfactual and interventional distributions. We devise an algorithm to construct counterfactual models that automatically satisfy influence constraints. Leveraging such models, we derive counterfactual policies that are not just optimal for a given reward structure but also remain tailored to the observed path. Even though there is an unavoidable trade-off between policy optimality and strength of influence constraints, our experiments demonstrate that it is possible to derive (near-)optimal policies while remaining under the influence of the observation.

Bayesian optimization is a methodology to optimize black-box functions. Traditionally, it focuses on the setting where you can arbitrarily query the search space. However, many real-life problems do not offer this flexibility; in particular, the search space of the next query may depend on previous ones. Example challenges arise in the physical sciences in the form of local movement constraints, required monotonicity in certain variables, and transitions influencing the accuracy of measurements. Altogether, such transition constraints necessitate a form of planning. This work extends Bayesian optimization via the framework of Markov Decision Processes, iteratively solving a tractable linearization of our objective using reinforcement learning to obtain a policy that plans ahead over long horizons. The resulting policy is potentially history-dependent and non-Markovian. We showcase applications in chemical reactor optimization, informative path planning, machine calibration, and other synthetic examples.